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Angela Weiss
Black primary voters said they saw promise in Kamala Harris' run for the Democratic nomination, but they held back support because they were worried about her electability, writes Regina Bateson.
How 'strategic' bias holds back women and candidates of color
Nov 16 2020
Bateson sought the Democratic nomination for a northern California congressional seat in 2018 and is now a visiting professor of law and public affairs at the University of Ottawa.
<p>When Americans voted this fall, the candidates on their ballots did not reflect the diversity of the United States.</p><p>Despite recent gains, women and people of color still <a href="https://cawp.rutgers.edu/women-percentage-2020-candidates" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">do not run for office</a> as frequently as white men. In part, this is because they face skepticism about <a href="https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/darrensands/stacey-abrams-wants-to-be-the-first-black-woman-governor" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">their electability</a>.</p><p>When Katie Hill launched her successful 2018 campaign for Congress, for example, fellow Democrats told her <a href="https://www.thelily.com/this-millennial-congresswoman-is-bringing-vulnerability-to-capitol-hill/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">a woman couldn't win</a> in her California district. When Adia Winfrey was exploring a run the same year, a senior party official told her there was <a href="https://www.refinery29.com/en-us/2018/06/200865/black-women-running-alabama" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">"no point"</a> continuing her nascent campaign. The problem? As a Black candidate, she seemed unelectable. And in Michigan, congressional candidate Suneel Gupta, an Indian-American, heard similar concerns. As Gupta recounts, the rationale from some local Democrats was, "I'm not racist, but my neighbor is racist ... so I don't think you'd be a strong candidate."</p><p>These comments reflect a subtle yet pervasive form of discrimination in politics. Call it <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/perspectives-on-politics/article/strategic-discrimination/81C38A8978F66319231DC8A0D5D2E6A5/share/78611c8a27e0341b9315fa60c68b41a2981addaf" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">"strategic discrimination."</a></p><p>This occurs when a party leader, donor or primary voter worries that others will object to a candidate's identity. As a result, these key actors may not endorse, fund or vote for candidates who fall outside the norm due to their race, gender, ethnicity, religion or sexual orientation.</p><p><p style="text-align: center;" id="sufn"><a style="font-weight: bold;margin:40px auto;font-size:2rem" href="https://thefulcrum.us/st/newsletters">Sign up for The Fulcrum newsletter </a></p></p><p>The problem is not direct bias or animosity. Rather, strategic discrimination is driven by concerns about other people's views.</p><p>As was on <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/01/07/682727440/iowa-democrats-focus-on-2020-candidates-who-are-electable-but-don-t-agree-on-wha" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">full display</a> in this year's Democratic presidential race, even liberals who typically value diversity can <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2019/04/26/joe-biden-checks-electability-box-whom/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">engage in</a> strategic discrimination if they think <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/08/12/what-i-learned-about-democrats-family-barbecue-north-carolina/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">others are biased</a>.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/04/kamala-harris-black-voters-2020-075651" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">focus groups</a>, for example, Black Democratic primary voters said they saw promise in Kamala Harris' candidacy, but they hesitated to support her because they worried America wouldn't elect a Black woman.</p><p>Strategic discrimination typically occurs prior to a primary election. Of course, party leaders want to support candidates who share their policy views. But they also want to win. So when they are deciding whom to support, party chairs, delegates, donors and elected officials make speculative judgments about how candidates will perform in the general election.</p><p>In this <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2004/12/12/magazine/electability.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">"futures market"</a> of politics, diverse candidates are at a sharp disadvantage. In <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S153759272000242X" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">my research</a>, I've found Americans see hypothetical white male candidates as more electable than equally qualified Black women, white women and, to a lesser degree, Black men.</p><p>The perceived electability gap is especially severe for women of color. <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/perspectives-on-politics/article/strategic-discrimination/81C38A8978F66319231DC8A0D5D2E6A5/share/78611c8a27e0341b9315fa60c68b41a2981addaf" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Studies show</a> Black women are viewed as much less competitive than either white women or Black men. Compared to a white man with the same education and experience in elected office, a Black woman is nearly a third less likely to be considered "very electable."</p><p><div class="x12"><div class="htlad-Desktop_Content_Banner"></div></div></p><p>The term "electable" has long been part of the American political lexicon, and the buzz around <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-candidate-you-like-is-the-one-you-think-is-most-electable-132647" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">electability</a> has only <a href="https://newrepublic.com/article/156241/electability-poisonous-political-shibboleth" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">grown louder</a> as political polarization has increased. This poses a problem for women and people of color seeking to enter politics, because electability is a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/04/opinion/kamala-harris-black-women.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">biased concept</a>.</p><p>For <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S153759272000242X" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">a study</a> last year, the MIT Political Experiments Research Lab surveyed a nationally representative sample of nearly 2,000 Americans. On average, they guessed 47 percent of the electorate would not vote for a woman presidential candidate and 42 percent would not vote for a Black candidate. Yet public opinion research suggests no more than <a href="https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/691799" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">15 percent</a> might refuse to vote for a presidential candidate based on race or gender.</p><p>Americans have a long history of believing others are <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1037/h0094754?scroll=top&needAccess=true&journalCode=hmlp20" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">more biased</a> than they really are. <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2748484" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Studies show</a> that in the 1960s, even as Americans personally came to oppose racial segregation, they incorrectly believed others still supported it. As social psychologists Dale Miller and Deborah Prentice have said, such misperceptions can "act as a brake on social change," anchoring decision-making in the prejudices of the past.</p><p>Today, a <a href="http://nautil.us/blog/this-psychological-concept-could-be-shaping-the-presidential-election" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">similar dynamic</a> exists in politics. Although women and people of color win at <a href="https://wholeads.us/the-electability-myth/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">the same rates</a> as white men, they are seen as less competitive.</p><p>Instead of taking a risk on a woman or person of color, party leaders and primary voters may <a href="https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/nidhiprakash/julian-castro-2020-electability-latino" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">prefer a white, male candidate</a> whose prospects for success feel more certain.</p><p>That's strategic discrimination — and it shapes who is able to become a viable candidate and who appears on the ballot. This matters because women and people of color <a href="https://womenrun.rutgers.edu/by-the-numbers/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">remain underrepresented</a> in politics.</p><p>So what can candidates do to overcome strategic discrimination? How can they garner the money and institutional support needed to become viable candidates?</p><p>In one of my <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S153759272000242X" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">studies</a>, I found that when subjects read messages emphasizing the importance of Black turnout, they saw Black candidates as more competitive.</p><p>Success stories from demographically similar candidates may also help. For example, when my subjects read about the <a href="https://www.chicagotribune.com/politics/elections/ct-met-illinois-14th-district-randy-hultgren-lauren-underwood-20181106-story.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">2018 victory</a> of Lauren Underwood – a Black woman who defeated a white male incumbent in a majority-white Illinois congressional district – they thought female and Black candidates would be more capable of winning in 2020.</p><p>However, in the real world of politics, this approach is far from foolproof.</p><p>Many of this year's female presidential contenders argued unsuccessfully that <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/01/31/elizabeth-warren-electability-ads-109814" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">"women win</a>." And Sen. Cory Booker sought to boost his perceived electability by emphasizing that Black turnout would be key to beating President Trump. Yet none of these candidates ended up the Democratic nominee.</p><p>An alternative strategy is to quash doubts about electability by notching key early victories. When Barack Obama began his presidential campaign in 2007, many Black primary voters were <a href="http://archive.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2007/11/09/politics_of_doubt_gnaw_at_black_voters_in_sc/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">skeptical</a> that whites would support him. But Obama gained crucial momentum when he won the Iowa caucuses, proving that yes, a Black man could win even in the whitest corners of America.</p><p>Most candidates will not be able to replicate Obama's narrow path to victory. Nonetheless, as diverse <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/01/women-of-color-congress-us-elections-2020" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">candidates</a> continue to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/06/22/next-congress-will-probably-be-most-diverse-ever/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">run</a>, they may eventually succeed in changing assumptions about who looks like a winner in politics.</p><div></div><p><em>This article is republished from </em><a href="https://theconversation.com/us" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><em>The Conversation</em></a><em> under a Creative Commons license. </em><a href="https://theconversation.com/how-strategic-bias-keeps-americans-from-voting-for-women-and-candidates-of-color-145906" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Click here</a><em> to read the original article.</em></p><p><br></p><div class="rm-embed embed-media"><p><img alt="The Conversation" height="1" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/145906/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" width="1"></p></div>
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