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Best electoral advantage is party, not incumbency, new study underscores
Dec 21 2020
Griffiths is the editor of Independent Voter News, where a version of this story first appeared.
A new report reinforces something political reform advocates and experts have been saying for years: Partisan identity is becoming the primary determinant in nearly every election.
The "Monopoly Politics" study, a biennial project of the electoral reform advocacy group FairVote, predicts the results of all 435 seats in the House long before Election Day. The 2020 version, released last week, predicted 357 "high confidence seats" with a 99.7 percent accuracy rate. The group bases its predictions on prior voting patterns, not on polling results, a methodology that has worked since FairVote began the project in 1997.
The predictions were made fully two years ahead of time, in November 2018, a startling reminder of how little competition there is in congressional contests and the consequence this has on the nation's politics. The authors say a central takeaway is the increasing role partisanship plays in the outcome of such elections.
<p>FairVote uses a metric it calls the "incumbency bump" to gauge performance of incumbents and so-called "crossover candidates," members of Congress who represent districts that supported the other party's presidential candidate in the previous election.<br></p><p>In other words, it is widely assumed there is an inherent advantage to being an incumbent. FairVote measures the strength of this advantage for Democrats and Republicans who were elected in areas that traditionally vote for the "other side."</p><p><p style="text-align: center;" id="sufn"><a style="font-weight: bold;margin:40px auto;font-size:2rem" href="https://thefulcrum.us/st/newsletters">Sign up for The Fulcrum newsletter </a></p></p><p>According to the report, this advantage is shrinking, which means all the things that used to give incumbents a leg up on the opposition — money, name recognition, experience, etc — do not mean as much as the partisan-leanings of local voters.</p><p>After the 2018 midterm, 38 Democrats and just three Republicans were crossover members. And 29 of them won again this year, a further decline in an incumbency bump that has gradually dropped since peaking in 2000.</p><p>"An increase in the predictability of partisanship at the expense of incumbency advantage, even for incumbents who maintained moderate voting records, means something troubling: the identity of candidates and their campaigns are mattering less and less," the report states.</p><p>Many know the adage that "all politics is local." This means politics is more consequential to a person's daily life the closer it gets to home. It also used to also mean local values and issues shaped how voters selected candidates.</p><p>To various extents, that still holds true. But for several years now, the divide between Republicans and Democrats at the national level has seeped down to shape trends at a local level. </p><p><div class="x12"><div class="htlad-Desktop_Content_Banner"></div></div></p><p>This nationalization of politics is another warning sign that, as the divide between the parties expands, the state of elections will worsen: more candidates favoring divisive behavior to the detriment of their constituents and the country, and a further reduction in the number of candidates pledged to bipartisanship and moderation.</p><p>"If Americans feel as if they are split into red and blue camps more than ever, or that there's no room for cross-partisan dialogue, there's a very clear systemic reason for that," said FairVote President and CEO Rob Richie. "Our elections fundamentally reward partisanship. We will not be able to clear this hurdle and come together as a nation until we are able to enact the reforms ... that ensure Americans are more truly represented."</p><p>He pointed to legislation that's a top goal of his group, which has so far gone nowhere in Congress. Dubbed the Fair Representation Act, it seeks to end hyper-polarization in Congress by remaking the way the House is constituted: five or six members each representing a fewer number of congressional districts, and chosen in <a href="http://thefulcrum.us/ranked-choice-voting" target="_self">ranked-choice elections</a>.</p><p>"Multi-winner districts allow more voters to participate in meaningfully competitive elections, and the vast majority of voters of both parties would be able to help elect candidates from their districts who share their views," FairVote states. "This change would roughly triple the number of voters able to participate in competitive House elections."</p><p><em>Visit </em><a href="https://ivn.us/" target="_blank"><em>IVN.us</em></a><em> for more coverage from Independent Voter News.</em></p>
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Maybe this is the best ad of the whole 2020 campaign
Oct 23 2020
Griffiths is the editor of Independent Voter News, where a version of this story first appeared.
Voters are constantly inundated with the back and forth mudslinging between candidates of the two major parties. The rhetoric on the campaign trail, on the airwaves and on social media has spiraled down to dangerously toxic levels, and things are only getting worse.
And in the middle of that vortex now stand the two people who want to be Utah's next governor. In some of the most alarming footage of this extraordinary political year, they're appearing on camera together in hopes of showing the country that there is a better way.
<p>Republican Lt. Governor Spencer Cox and his Democratic rival, law professor Chris Peterson, took time during the campaign to collaborate on an advertisement pleading for civility in the 2020 election — and another <a href="https://twitter.com/BenWinslow/status/1318544040699154432" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">encouraging the peaceful transition of power</a>.</p><p>"We can debate issues without degrading each other's character," says Cox, who's the heavy favorite in one of the nation's most conservative states.</p><p>"We can disagree without hating each other," adds Peterson, who's making his first bid for office.</p><p>They further express that no matter who wins, they will work together, and together they can set the right example for the rest of the country. It is a refreshing sentiment as tensions rise just a dozen says from Election Day.</p><p><p style="text-align: center;" id="sufn"><a style="font-weight: bold;margin:40px auto;font-size:2rem" href="https://thefulcrum.us/st/newsletters">Sign up for The Fulcrum newsletter </a></p></p><p>In the other 30-second spot, both commit to supporting a peaceful transition of power in the presidential election, something President Trump has declined to do because he believes that mail-in voting will become a hotbed of fraud.</p><p>Peterson: "Whether you vote by mail or in person, your vote determines the outcome."</p><p>Cox: "And then, we commit to a peaceful transition of power."</p><p>Peterson: "It's the very foundation of our country."</p><p>Cox: "And we ask that you stand with us."</p><p>The cost of making the PSAs were shared by the two campaigns and the ads are being offered to media outlets across Utah to air for free — but the spots have become internet sensations and been aired with adoring commentary around the world by the BBC.</p><p><em>Visit </em><a href="https://ivn.us/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><em>IVN.us</em></a><em> for more coverage from Independent Voter News.</em></p>
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Pandemic's made partisanship even worse, independent voters say
Oct 05 2020
Griffiths is the editor of Independent Voter News, where a version of this story first appeared.
A whopping four out of five independents say the coronavirus pandemic has made partisanship in politics even clearer — and more critical to combat.
That's the top takeaway from the second nationwide poll conducted by Independent Voting, one of the main advocacy groups seeking to galvanize the two-fifths of Americans who don't identify with either major party and view their duopoly as one of democracy's major ills.
<p>Pollsters for "<a href="http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001JJUaY-rYNNrqsxyhhy5IwXx7IIis78Xh2qmQkZG-Rp3GwIniQGAXGA8H14nbQSReX4N97_jmAEB_85pscIDkBWi_6mw2APRPvHTEMZu9l0PyuF5g0_4QEsMiuNH5PYdiGG6oOTHm8YIQ0GSXyIHg9Dyn1-3RmaF2mxqbavmvzpU=&c=LKll_yQ2MwIlWiU525__L9roiiyXMnvu3A4ylMWavABqFiXBKoIbMw==&ch=WN87TBDTwn-l9aog15JAGOrLm10FNA3cb12BR9enWgg0Lf4J7pBE7A==" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Confronting A New Reality: Independents Speak Out</a>" interviewed more than 3,600 independent voters over more than 100 days on the hot button issues of this campaign year, from the government's handling of Covid-19 to police reform to what being independent means to them. </p><p>The most lopsided finding was the 81 percent who said they believed the public health emergency has only made the problem of partisanship more critical to address.</p>
<p class="shortcode-media shortcode-media-rebelmouse-image">
<img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNDQ2NTA2Ny9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYzMTEyMzI0Mn0.dWJ3lTxjeeVRJDYXa9mfSDf08--Wvtmj_5q0wvFgwJA/img.png?width=980" id="a5078" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="68d1ac62ce3dc2136cbfe676bbe98e1a" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" alt="poll of independent voters">
<small class="image-media media-photo-credit" placeholder="Add Photo Credit...">Source: Independent Voting</small></p>
<p>Three-fourths of those surveyed said mistakes were made by both Republican and Democratic elected officials in handling the pandemic. And 63 percent said the main problem with partisanship remains the resulting policy paralysis, which prevents the country's needs from being addressed.<br></p><p>A majority also agreed a root problem is the partisanship and divisiveness that dominates the electoral process — with 62 percent complaining that a main problem with this year's election landscape was that independents in many states were locked out of the primary process.</p><p><p style="text-align: center;" id="sufn"><a style="font-weight: bold;margin:40px auto;font-size:2rem" href="https://thefulcrum.us/st/newsletters">Sign up for The Fulcrum newsletter </a></p></p><p>A third of those surveyed said they sometimes register with one of the major parties just so they can vote in the primaries — and that's a condition to voting most would like to see changed.</p><p>This data is important because it punctures the narrative that independent voters are a myth. Ultimately, they will choose a Republican or a Democrat, this theory goes, and so there is little point focusing on how four in 10 Americans refuse to identify with a political party.</p><p>Independents, though, make clear in the poll that they want change. They want an equal and meaningful voice in the process. They want a competitive and fair system. And, the more frustrated these voters get with the status quo, the more active they become in seeing a transformation in the American political process.</p><p>"Independent voters are optimistic that if we open up the electoral system and make it more democratic for everyone, we will start to see less partisanship and more cooperation for the good of everyone," wrote Tiani Coleman and Randy Miller, who supervised the survey.</p><p><div class="x12"><div class="htlad-Desktop_Content_Banner"></div></div></p><p>Their polling also found 61 percent of independent voters want to explore the idea of a nonpartisan nominating process for the next presidential election, while 80 percent believe leaders of election and political reform groups should join forces and collaborate.</p><p>"If our country is to free itself from the clutches of partisanship, independents will have to lead the way." said the organization's president, Jackie Salit.</p>
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