New research from the Unite America Institute (UAI) confirms an unfortunate reality: Not all votes hold equal weight in determining election outcomes. In 2024, just 14% of eligible American voters cast a meaningful vote to elect the entire U.S. House of Representatives; and on average across all 50 states, only 13% of voters cast a meaningful vote to elect the members of their state house of representatives.
The meaningful votes metric combines voter turnout and competition data to reveal, not just how many votes were cast, but how many votes actually determined the outcome. UAI’s research finds that open, all-candidate primaries increase the share of meaningful votes—suggesting that primary reform is an effective way to ensure, not only that every vote counts, but that every vote matters.
Voter turnout: How many votes were cast in an election.
Meaningful votes: How many votes mattered in determining the outcome of an election.
Why aren’t all votes meaningful?
The main reason why not all votes are meaningful is a lack of competition. Nearly 90% of U.S. House and State House races are “safe” for one party or the other, meaning the dominant party’s primary—which typically has a low turnout—effectively determines the winner.
The lack of competition leads to a lack of representation. When so few votes are meaningful in determining a legislator’s reelection, they’re incentivized to govern in the interests of a small, often unrepresentative slice of the electorate rather than the majority of their constituents.
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What is a meaningful vote?
A meaningful vote is typically cast in the following scenarios: i) A closely contested general election (decided by 10 percentage points or less), ii) a general election that features multiple candidates from the same party (which is a feature of open, all-candidate primary systems), or iii) a primary election for a “safe” seat where there are multiple candidates running from the dominant party. In cases when there is an uncompetitive general election and only one candidate is running in the dominant party primary, there are no meaningful votes cast.
The total number of meaningful votes cast divided by the state’s voting-eligible population equals its meaningful vote percentage—a single number that allows for comparisons within and between states to measure the extent of the “Primary Problem” throughout the country. It also demonstrates the potential benefits of primary reform.
Key Findings: U.S. House Elections
- Few votes truly matter: 14% of voters cast meaningful votes to elect the entire U.S. House of Representatives.
- Minimal competition limits meaningful votes: 87% of the 435 U.S. House seats weren't competitive in the general election. For all of these races, the only meaningful votes, if any, were cast in the primary elections.
- Closed primaries also limit meaningful votes: Closed primaries in 15 states, where only registered members of a political party can vote in federal and state elections, bar 16.6 million independent voters from participating in primaries. These primaries are often where the only meaningful votes are cast.
- Few votes truly matter: Across each state’s last election cycle, on average, just 13% of voters cast meaningful votes to elect their state house.
- Minimal competition limits meaningful votes:
- 88% of the more than 5,000 state house seats weren’t competitive in the general election. For many of these races, the only meaningful votes occurred during the primary elections.
- 64% of seats lacked competition in both the primary and general elections. Put another way, not a single voter cast a meaningful vote to “elect” about two-thirds of the country’s state house representatives.
- Competitive general elections drive meaningful votes: Nebraska and Alaska ranked first and second for the highest percentage of meaningful votes and the highest rate of competitive general elections (more than 50% of seats). Voter turnout is highest in general elections, so competitive races significantly increase the number of meaningful votes cast.
- States with open, all-candidate primaries have more meaningful votes cast: All-candidate primaries give all voters the freedom to vote for any candidate, regardless of party, in every taxpayer-funded election. The average percentage of meaningful votes in the four states with all-candidate primaries was 26%. This is more than twice as high as the average percentage of meaningful votes in the 45 states with partisan primaries that restrict voter participation based on party affiliation (12%).
- The three states with the highest share of meaningful votes in the last cycle (Nebraska, Alaska, California) all use all-candidate primaries.
- All-candidate primaries create greater general election competition by allowing multiple candidates from the same party to run in the general election. This leads to a higher share of meaningful votes. For example, following the implementation of all-candidate primaries, Alaska’s share of meaningful votes increased from 22% in 2020 to 35% in 2022 (a 58% increase in the share of meaningful votes).
