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Harmeet Dhillon, one of the state's Republican National Committee members, says a new law's extension for postal delays creates "a lot of opportunity for mischief."
California will mail ballots to all and count those arriving 17 days late
Jun 26 2020
Griffiths is the editor of Independent Voter News.
Ballots will be delivered to every registered, active California voter this fall under a law signed Thursday by Gov. Gavin Newsom.
The measure assures everyone in the nation's most populous state will be able to vote by mail in the presidential contest. It's the biggest single expansion so far of this alternative for the general election, when a surge of interest in absentee balloting nationwide seems guaranteed as a result of the coronavirus.
The bill also assures the outcome of close contests won't be known until nearly Thanksgiving, because a provision mandates that envelopes postmarked by Election Day be tabulated if they arrive as long as 17 days later. No other state has that long a grace period to allow for slow postal service.
<p>California's 55 electoral votes can be counted to go for Joe Biden, but President Trump will still have the opportunity to raise the state's unusually long delays in finalizing the returns if he decides to contest a close election nationwide. He has recently sowed doubt about the vote by amplifying his many unsubstantiated claims about voter fraud — which have included several unfounded allegations about California in recent weeks. </p><p><p style="text-align: center;" id="sufn"><a style="font-weight: bold;margin:40px auto;font-size:2rem" href="https://thefulcrum.us/st/newsletters">Sign up for The Fulcrum newsletter </a></p></p><p>More substantively, the new rule could create an exceptionally long wait time for final results of hotly contested ballot measures and races for congressional, state and local offices.</p><p>Passed overwhelmingly in the Democratic-majority Legislature with some GOP votes, the law closely mirrors <a data-linked-post="2646153281" href="https://thefulcrum.us/california-voting-2646153281" target="_blank">a pair of executive orders</a> the Democratic governor issued in the past month in the name of boosting turnout and keeping polling places healthy.</p><p>Republicans had <a data-linked-post="2646090939" href="https://thefulcrum.us/voting/vote-by-mail-california" target="_blank">challenged</a> Newsom's actions as illegal executive overreach, but those lawsuits have now been rendered moot by the actions in Sacramento. Instead, the GOP is likely to focus its criticism on the newly lengthened extension for mailed votes.</p><p>Most voters in California are already registered permanent absentee, which means they automatically receive a ballot by mail for every primary and general election. Already this year, nearly 80 percent of active registered voters received a ballot by mail. The latest Public Policy Institute of California survey about attitudes toward state government found nearly <a href="https://www.ppic.org/press-release/many-in-state-say-the-worst-of-covid-19-is-ahead-for-u-s-most-prefer-caution-in-easing-restrictions-in-their-area/" target="_blank">three-quarters of likely voters</a> support expanding mail-in options for November.</p><p>"No one should have to risk their health — and possibly their life — to exercise their constitutional right to vote," said Democratic state Rep. Marc Berman, author of the new law. "In the midst of a deadly health pandemic, giving all California voters the opportunity to vote from the safety of their own home is the responsible thing to do."</p><p>The 17-day window, however, is being targeted by the GOP. One of the state's delegates to the Republican National Committee, Harmeet Dhillon, for instance, <a href="https://abc7.com/california-mail-in-ballots-2020-election-gavin-newsom-governor-november/6256365/" target="_blank">has labeled the expansion "bizarre"</a> and said it could open the floodgates to legal challenges over ballot signatures, raising integrity issues and dragging some races out for weeks.</p><p>"There is a lot of opportunity for mischief," she said. "There is a tremendous amount of uncertainty."</p><p>Much of the concern is over a practice colloquially known as <a href="https://ivn.us/2018/11/30/what-is-ballot-harvesting" target="_blank">ballot harvesting</a>. A state law enacted in 2016 makes it legal for anyone, paid political operative included, to collect and turn in mail-in ballots on behalf of voters. Democrats organized to take advantage of the liberalized rules and their collection efforts helped flip several Orange County congressional seats from red to blue in the 2018 midterm.</p><p>Democratic state Rep. Lorena Gonzales, an author of the law, said the change was simply meant to offer a public service, and that the rules prior to the bill's passage "provided yet another obstacle for individuals attempting to vote."</p><p>Those who object to the practice, however, say there is little protection against coercion, either by a family member or by a campaign collecting the ballots.</p><p>Last-minute ballot submissions slowed the count in several races in 2018, and bolstered a massive Democratic get-out-the-vote effort in several races. However, there is no evidence of widespread fraud. Republicans are <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/we-got-our-clocks-cleaned-gop-quietly-works-to-expand-ballot-harvesting-in-california-while-criticizing-democrats-for-the-practice/2019/03/13/a432d902-41b7-11e9-922c-64d6b7840b82_story.html" target="_blank">reportedly</a> working to improve their own on-the-ground ballot collection operation for this November.</p><p>Many states have adopted measures to increase the use of mail-in voting in 2020, and some have already conducted all-mail elections with little problem. Nonpartisan reformers who <a href="https://ivn.us/posts/national-reformers-spotlight-record-setting-elections-under-vote-at-home-ranked-choice-voting" target="_blank">support increased use of vote-at-home methods</a> point to these elections as evidence that claims of widespread fraud under vote-by-mail are largely unfounded.</p><p>The biggest cast of voting fraud in recent years, forcing the do-over last year of a <a href="https://www.rollcall.com/2019/02/21/state-board-votes-for-new-election-in-north-carolinas-9th-district/" target="_blank">tainted congressional contest</a>, centered on Republican misbehavior. Testimony after the 2018 election described how GOP political consultant Leslie McCrae Dowless Jr. paid workers to collect ballots and return them to him, promising to then mail the ballots himself. Such ballot harvesting is illegal in North Carolina.</p><p><em>Visit </em><a href="https://ivn.us/" target="_blank"><em>IVN.us</em></a><em> for more coverage from Independent Voter News.</em></p>
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In Baltimore, winning the Democratic primary is tantamount to winning the election. Catherine Pugh won the 2016 primary with just 37 percent of the vote.
Solution for one big city's blue monopoly? Open primaries, study says.
Jun 12 2020
Griffiths is the editor of Independent Voter News.
Baltimore is a one-party town. It hasn't had a Republican mayor since 1967. Registered Democrats vastly outnumber any other party registration, having a tenfold advantage over the GOP. It's as blue as a city can get.
The consequence is that November elections are inconsequential. The winner of the closed Democratic mayoral primary, for instance, might as well be sworn in the next day, and he or she can win with a marginal share of the total registered voting population. Voters outside the Democratic Party have no voice in the process.
A new study says that, to strengthen political competition and improve city elections, Baltimore should implement nonpartisan reform. Specifically, George Washington University political scientist Christopher Warshaw says, a "'top-two primary' is the reform most likely to improve Baltimore's mayoral elections. This reform would increase turnout and electoral competition."
<p>The <a href="https://www.abell.org/" target="_blank">Abell Foundation</a> published Warshaw's study just in time for Maryland's primary last week — when the Democratic nod for mayor, which is tantamount to election, was won by City Council President Brandon Scott with just 29 percent of the vote against four credible opponents</p><p><p style="text-align: center;" id="sufn"><a style="font-weight: bold;margin:40px auto;font-size:2rem" href="https://thefulcrum.us/st/newsletters">Sign up for The Fulcrum newsletter </a></p></p><p>Warshaw examines three problems he identified with Baltimore elections:</p><ul class="ee-ul"><li>Primary elections can be won with a narrow plurality or very low threshold of the total vote. Another example: Catherine Pugh won the Democratic mayoral primary four years ago with just 37 percent.</li><li>Due to the overwhelming advantage the Democrats have in voter registration, the primary election is the most crucial stage of the elections process and the Democratic primary decides the winner of the election.</li><li>Only registered party members can participate in the primaries, meaning approximately 50,000 voters registered unaffiliated or outside the two major parties are denied a voice unless they affiliate with the dominant party (In other words, their right to meaningful participation is conditioned on affiliating with the Democratic Party.)</li></ul><p>Warshaw ultimately concludes that a nonpartisan, top-two primary in which all voters and candidates, regardless of party, participate on a single primary ballot could have the most transformative effect on city elections. </p><p>Because Baltimore is a Democratic stronghold this could lead to same-party races in November. However, he says, the outcome of the race will be decided when the most voters participate and won't be decided by the party faithful.</p><p>"The shift to a top-two primary would ... lead to more competitive general elections and incentivize candidates to appeal to a broader electorate," the study concludes. "This, in turn, could improve democracy in Baltimore by leading to the election of officials that are more demographically and ideologically representative of Baltimore's electorate."</p><p><a href="https://ivn.us/posts/voter-empowerment-and-greater-competition-the-impact-of-cas-top-two-primary" target="_blank">Researchers in California</a> have determined that the nonpartisan, top-two primary has had this exact effect on the state's political landscape. California uses the top-two primary" for all state executive and legislative elections, along with non-presidential federal elections.</p><p>Warshaw further suggests that the city should analyze the impact <a data-linked-post="2636700700" href="https://thefulcrum.us/ranked-choice-voting" target="_blank">ranked-choice voting</a> has in New York and other major cities where it has been adopted and is used. If it works in the nation's biggest city, he writes, then Baltimore should consider adding it to the nonpartisan, top-two primary.</p><p>Warshaw recognizes, however, that there is a significant legal hurdle to adopting nonpartisan election reform. His research indicates that the city does not have the authority to change its own elections and would need state legislative approval. In other words, change can only happen if the people who control elections agree to cede that authority to voters.</p><p>Historically, this has been a tall hurdle to clear because parties don't like to give up this control.</p><p>This doesn't mean support for reforming primary elections doesn't exist in the Legislature. In his study, Warshaw cites <a href="http://mgaleg.maryland.gov/2019RS/bills/hb/hb0026f.pdf" target="_blank">a bill</a>, proposed in Annapolis last year by Democratic Rep. Brooke Lierman of Baltimore City, that would have permitted the city to switch to ranked-choice voting or open primaries. Lierman eventually withdrew her own bill.</p><p><em>Visit </em><a href="https://ivn.us/" target="_blank"><em>IVN.us</em></a><em> for more coverage from Independent Voter News.</em></p>
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Can Ranked-Choice Voting Change U.S. Elections?
Proponents confident they'll get ranked-choice voting on the Mass. ballot
May 28 2020
Griffiths is a contributor to Independent Voter News.
Voter Choice for Massachusetts 2020 announced Wednesday that it has smashed the signature requirement to get ranked-choice voting on the November ballot. Campaign workers say they are on pace to collect the most signatures for a ballot initiative in Massachusetts history.
In an email to supporters, the campaign said it has collected 17,084 raw signatures, and is averaging over 800 new signatures per day. It needs 13,347 verified signatures by June 17 to go before state voters in the general election.
If approved, Massachusetts in 2022 would become the second state, after nearby Maine, to adopt the system for electing all state executive officials, legislators and members of Congress.
<p>"Thanks to our amazing volunteers, we're right on track to meet and exceed our campaign goal of 25,000" the campaign said.<br></p><p>According to the campaign, the signature validity rate is around 73 percent. This means it appears likely that the campaign has already cleared the necessary bar it needs to get to November, and should have more than enough cushion by the deadline.</p><p><p style="text-align: center;" id="sufn"><a style="font-weight: bold;margin:40px auto;font-size:2rem" href="https://thefulcrum.us/st/newsletters">Sign up for The Fulcrum newsletter </a></p></p><p>The coronavirus pandemic has threatened the success of many ballot initiatives across the country. However, <a href="https://voterchoice2020.org/" target="_blank">Voter Choice Mass</a> scored <a href="https://ivn.us/posts/courts-will-protect-the-voting-rights-of-party-members-but-why-not-independents" target="_blank">a major legal victory</a> that allowed campaign workers and volunteers to collect signatures electronically in the second stage of the signature gathering process. The state already certified over 111,000 signatures for the statewide ranked-choice voting campaign <a href="https://voterchoice2020.org/state-certifies-over-111000-signatures-ranked-choice-voting-ballot/" target="_blank">in December</a>.</p><p>Voter Choice Mass credits its success to the motivation of its volunteers, who it says have put in the time to reach thousands of Massachusetts voters every day — even in these uncertain times. </p><p>In RCV elections, which have also been embraced by a score of cities, voters list candidates for each office in order of preference. A candidate receiving a majority of first-place ballots wins. Otherwise, the candidate with the fewest No. 1 votes is eliminated. Then the ballots ranking that candidate No. 1 are redistributed based on their No. 2 rankings. This process is repeated until one candidate reaches a majority. It is allso called an "instant runoff" system.</p><p><em>Visit </em><a href="https://ivn.us/" target="_blank"><em>IVN.us</em></a><em> for more coverage from Independent Voter News.</em></p>
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Voting
True
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Time to engage the biggest electoral bloc: Americans who are not voters
May 18 2020
Fisher is deputy director of Unite America, which works to enact and helps finance political reform efforts and candidates "who put people over party." (It is a donor to The Fulcrum.) This piece was originally published by Independent Voter News.
<p>Had "Did Not Vote" been a candidate for president in 2016, they would have won handedly. With 41.3 percent of the vote, this block of the electorate significantly outpaced the share of all voters who chose Hillary Clinton (28.5 percent) or Donald Trump (27.3 percent).</p><p>Despite the best efforts of both parties to turn out citizens to the polls, voter apathy remains a well-documented reality of American politics. It's an especially alarming reality when compared to our peers. Of the members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, which represents the world's 32 richest and most developed countries, the United States ranks 26th in voter turnout by eligible citizens. </p><p>American nonvoters are the subject of recently released research, <a href="https://the100million.org/" target="_blank">The 100 Million Project</a>, commissioned by the Knight Foundation and the centerpiece for a Tuesday <a href="https://thefulcrum.us/the-untold-story-of-american-non-voters" target="_blank">online forum on civic engagement</a> sponsored by the Brennan Center for Justice.</p><p>Informed by a survey of 4,000 persistent non-voters nationwide and 8,000 persistent non-voters in 10 battleground states, the research is an invaluable contribution to our understanding of why many Americans don't exercise their civic duty. </p><p><p style="text-align: center;" id="sufn"><a style="font-weight: bold;margin:40px auto;font-size:2rem" href="https://thefulcrum.us/st/newsletters">Sign up for The Fulcrum newsletter </a></p></p><p>The methodology used is unique in today's political industry. Almost always, pollsters terminate public opinion surveys as soon as respondents indicate they are unlikely to, or will not, vote in the next election. The result is an entire swath of the electorate whose attitudes and preferences go under analyzed and untold.</p><p>There are many reasons citizens don't vote, according to the research. </p><p>First and foremost, non-voters report a scarcity of candidates who truly motivate and inspire them to participate. </p><p>Second, they lack faith in the system; 48 percent of non-voters do not believe the results of elections represent the will of the people, and they are more likely than regular voters to believe election results are not reported accurately. </p><p>Third, non-voters are less likely to believe the actions of the president and other elected officials have an impact on their life. </p><p>And finally, news is viewed 25 percent less often by non-voters compared to voters, suggesting they are less informed.</p><p>There also remain simple reasons that dictate why voters don't participate, including high barriers to entry in our antiquated electoral systems.</p><p>We can help engage non-voters by making it easier to cast a ballot. Proactively mailing every voter a ballot — which is what will happen in just five states this year — could boost participation by up to 9 percent, according to new research. And the gains are equal across party affiliation and most likely to benefit constituencies that tend to vote less frequently — including young people, minorities and the poor.</p><p>To overcome the top reason why voters don't vote — a dearth of options they actually believe in — we should consider reforms that could lead to a multiparty democracy. Lee Drutman's recent book, "<a data-linked-post="2645441124" href="https://thefulcrum.us/big-picture/6-of-the-most-important-democracy-books-of-the-past-6-months" target="_blank">Breaking the Two-Party Doom Loop</a>," argues that a combination of ranked-choice voting and multimember districts would open our system up to new competition, and likely give more Americans more reason to vote.</p><p>But perhaps non-voters will change behavior on their own. Surprisingly, 71 percent of the non-voters surveyed say they plan to vote in this year's presidential election, with 78 percent of those respondents saying they were absolutely certain. This seems to be because 57 percent believe the 2020 contest is more important than previous elections and only 33 percent believe the country is on the right track.</p><p>Of course, the political science literature is littered with consensus that the fact voters say they're going to vote is a terrible indicator for if they actually will. </p><p>Candidates, political consultants and organizations who often consume themselves with only engaging the most likely to vote should consider whether — by engaging America's largest political constituency — they take the lead in creating a more representative and functional government.</p><div></div><p><em>Visit </em><a href="https://ivn.us/" target="_blank"><em>IVN.us</em></a><em> for more coverage from Independent Voter News.</em></p>
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