CHANGE Illinois is a nonpartisan, nonprofit leading systemic government and election reforms. CHANGE (the Coalition for Honest and New Government Ethics) champions ethical and efficient government and democracy and includes a diverse group of civic, philanthropic, business, labor, professional, and nonprofit organizations representing millions of Illinoisans. CHANGE Illinois works in collaboration with like-minded reform organizations, playing a leadership role in convening and facilitating efforts around shared policy agendas. The coalition works to improve challenges that undermine our democracy, including gerrymandering, restricted ballot access, voter suppression, uncompetitive elections, corruption, lack of government transparency and unethical lobbying, all of which have led to disillusionment and a decrease in civic participation.
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Senator Adam Schiff, D-Calif, speaks at the Brookings Institution panel to make the case for regulating prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket
(Erika Tulfo, Medill News Service)
Kalshi Wants to Help Americans Hedge Risk. Lawmakers Say It’s Just Gambling with a Different Name
May 22, 2026
WASHINGTON – Prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are facing mounting pressure in Congress as lawmakers debate whether the platforms should be treated as financial exchanges or gambling operations.
The platforms allow users to bet on real-world events from sports to politics, which are classified as a type of financial derivative overseen by the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
But the rapidly growing industry has become a pressing topic on Capitol Hill following a slew of recent scandals, with seven House Democrats urging the House Oversight Committee last week to subpoena prediction markets over concerns of corruption and insider trading.
Last month, U.S. Army soldier Gannon Van Dyke was charged with using classified information to profit from a Polymarket wager related to the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in January. In the same month, Kalshi fined and suspended three congressional candidates for betting on the outcomes of their own elections.
“Every day, every week, we seem to see a new story, whether it's campaign staffers with internal access to polling betting on things,” said Senator Adam Schiff, D-Calif, at a panel hosted by the Brookings Institution on Monday. “The real winners seem to be these professional market makers, where just about everybody else seems to be losing money.”
There are currently 14 active bills related to prediction markets in Congress, including the Prediction Markets are Gambling Act. The bipartisan bill would amend the Commodity Exchange Act to ban prediction markets from listing contracts that resemble sports bets or casino-style games.
Schiff, one of the bill’s authors, argued that sports betting-related contracts listed on prediction markets constituted gambling and should therefore be regulated by individual states.
He added that he was also concerned about seeing a potential rise in gambling addictions in young people who use prediction market platforms to make bets.
“If you want to game on your phone at age 18 – and maybe even if you’re not 18 – you find a workaround,” Schiff said. “It's just at your fingertips, and you can now link other financial accounts to your prediction account and transfer money easily. Who's guarding against that, and who's looking into what's happening with gambling addiction?”
On prediction market platforms, users can bet on anything from the weather to the number of posts Trump uploads to TruthSocial in a given week. A Harris Poll survey conducted in March on behalf of the National Council on Problem Gambling found that 30% of Americans considered prediction markets similar to gambling, compared with 24% who saw them as financial forecasting and 18% who saw them as a form of investing.
But Kalshi’s general counsel and chief regulatory officer, Rick Heaslip, pushed back against the characterization of the platform as an avenue for 24/7 online gambling, arguing it was a tool people could use to hedge risk. He added that 70% of Kalshi users did not trade on the platform, but used it simply to interpret the news.
“They'll go on Kalshi, they'll check the odds, and they'll say, ‘Was that talking head that I just saw on CNN telling the truth? Were they giving me a real, accurate assessment of what may or may not happen?’ And so Kalshi, as an enterprise, provides that for everybody,” he said.
Heaslip noted that Kalshi has a process for deciding which markets to list and explained that the platform only lists “swaps,” which are events associated with potential economic outcomes.
He pointed to the Met Gala as a recent example, saying that a contract on whether or not a celebrity will wear a certain brand is considered a swap because it carries economic consequences.
“While if I listed a swap on whether or not my neighbor wore a red hat or blue hat tomorrow, that would probably get me into hot water with the FTC very quickly,” he said.
But other panelists questioned the inclusion of sports-related bets, which seemingly lack economic consequences, unlike those concerning the performance of individual athletes.
Sam Henry Lazarus, a research associate at the Council on Foreign Relations, said that while he thinks prediction markets have the potential to become important indicators, their inclusion made the platform resemble casino-style gaming.
“They have a ton of social utility, but they have that utility insofar as they're not running sort of a silly race,” he said. “Even if, under the law, you can make the argument that you're not a casino… if it quacks like a casino, and it walks like a casino, it's a casino. And eventually, people are going to vote representatives into office that are going to regulate you like one.”
Erika Tulfo is a reporter covering business and financial policy for Medill News Service.
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President Donald Trump says Americans’ financial struggles matter “not even a little bit” as inflation rises, gas prices surge, and a controversial $1.7 billion taxpayer-funded compensation plan for political allies emerges.
Getty Images, Twenty47studio
Trump Says Americans’ Pain ‘Doesn’t Matter’ as $1.7B Aids His Allies
May 21, 2026
Perhaps the most effective ad in the 2024 campaign was “Kamala is for they/them. President Trump is for you.” Since that ad ran, the American people have learned that it is anything but true.
With gas prices having surged 28% in two months, inflation climbing to a three-year high of 3.8%, and the average family is spending an estimated $5,000 more this year than last due to rising costs across the board, a reporter asked Trump a simple question: To what extent are Americans’ financial situations motivating him to reach a deal to end the war in Iran?
Trump's answer was startling in its candor.
“Not even a little bit,” the President said. “The only thing that matters when I'm talking about Iran — they can't have a nuclear weapon. I don't think about Americans' financial situation. I don't think about anybody.”
But perhaps the most clarifying lens through which to view those words is what emerged just days later: Trump was suing the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) for $10 billion in damages over an IRS contractor’s leak of his tax returns but is now expected to drop that $10 billion lawsuit, not because justice has been served, but in exchange for the creation of a $1.7 billion fund to compensate his political allies.
The money would come not from any congressional appropriation but from the Treasury Department's Judgment Fund, a public fund funded by taxpayers that exists to pay legitimate court judgments against the federal government.
Under the proposed terms, a five-member commission with total authority to disburse that $1.7 billion would operate with no obligation to disclose its procedures or decision-making. Trump himself would retain the power to remove commission members without cause.
The beneficiaries? Among them: the nearly 1,600 individuals charged in connection with the January 6 Capitol attack, some of whom pleaded guilty, and people Trump already pardoned upon returning to office, as well as allies who claim they were targets of “weaponization” of the legal system under former President Joe Biden. Entities associated with Trump himself are not explicitly barred from filing claims.
The contrast here is not subtle. When asked directly whether the financial pain of working Americans factors into his decision-making, the president answers “not even a little bit.”
Yet within the same week, a deal surfaces in which $1.7 billion in public funds could flow to Trump allies, Proud Boys, Oath Keepers, and potentially Trump-linked entities — all under a commission the president controls, with no transparency requirements.
While ordinary Americans are losing ground financially, the president himself is doing remarkably well — and the numbers are staggering.
According to Forbes, Trump's net worth jumped from roughly $2.3 billion when he returned to the White House in January 2025 to an estimated $6.3 billion by April 2026 — nearly tripling his fortune in little over a year.
A New York Times investigation found that he personally gained approximately $1.4 billion in 2025 alone, a single-year increase that approaches the combined net worth of every other U.S. president while in office throughout American history.
The primary engine of that growth has not been real estate, the business that built his brand over five decades, but rather cryptocurrency ventures, meme coins, and media deals, all industries he has simultaneously deregulated from the Oval Office.
The American people are not the constituency this president governs for. The data bears that out. Real wages are losing ground as energy costs surge. The personal savings rate has dropped to 4%. Small businesses have shed hundreds of thousands of jobs under the weight of tariffs. Gas sits at over $4 a gallon. And the president's answer to the question of whether your financial pain is even in his mind is: no.
There is, of course, an argument to be made that preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon is a legitimate and serious national security priority that may justify some economic disruption.
But that argument is entirely separate from whether a president should care about the daily financial suffering of the people he was elected to serve. One can hold two things in mind at once. Trump apparently cannot — or will not.
We clearly have a portrait of a president whose conception of governance begins and ends with him and his loyalists. And when ordinary Americans ask if their struggles even register, they get the most honest answer this administration has offered: not even a little bit.
Lynn Schmidt is a columnist and Editorial Board member with the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. She holds a master's of science in political science as well as a bachelor's of science in nursing.
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Congress faces growing pressure to pass redistricting reform as lawmakers debate banning gerrymandering, independent commissions, and mid-decade map changes amid renewed national controversy over fair elections.
Getty Images, aire images
Congress's Missed Opportunities on Redistricting Reform
May 21, 2026
On April 29, Issue One posted an image on Facebook and Instagram: CONGRESS CAN FIX THIS WITH THREE SIMPLE STEPS:
- Establish Clear National Criteria for Fair Maps
- Require Independent Redistricting Commissions in Every State
- Ban Mid-Decade Redistricting.
Issue One added below: “… but it needs 60 Senate votes to do it.”
One week earlier, on April 22, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY-8) said, “The Republicans are dummymandering their way into the minority before a single vote is cast,” after learning that Louisiana, Alabama, Florida, and Tennessee are all taking steps to redraw their congressional maps following the Supreme Court’s Callais decision. “They started this war, and we’re going to finish it.”
This oversight can be traced back to the last day the Senate held a filibuster-proof majority on February 4, 2010, when the Democratic Party did not advance redistricting reform. At that time, the party prioritized other major legislative goals, such as passing the Affordable Care Act and responding to the economic crisis, which left election reform issues like redistricting lower on the agenda. Big political differences within the party and concerns about jeopardizing their congressional gains also contributed to the inaction, making this a missed opportunity for systemic change.
As an expert on the Hypocrisy of Gerrymandering, I urge you to use the Issue One post as clear evidence that redistricting reform is urgently needed. Congress’s failure to act shows that it is not prioritizing fair representation. Take direct action: Contact your representatives now and demand they champion comprehensive redistricting reform. Your call can make a difference.
Recently, Columnist Jamil Smith wrote in his Guardian column, “The next Voting Rights Act must outlaw gerrymandering.” Yet since the 93rd Congress (1973–75), no federal legislation specifically aimed at reforming or regulating congressional redistricting has passed both houses of Congress, often failing to advance beyond committee or subcommittee referral.
In 2005, Representative John S. Tanner, a Democrat from Tennessee, was the first to introduce his redistricting reform legislation, the Fairness and Independence in Redistricting Act (FAIR Act), during the Republican-controlled House of Representatives. He then reintroduced it in the next two sessions during the Democratic-controlled House.
Beginning in 2005, Democratic Rep. Zoe Lofgren of California introduced a bill in each of the last eleven Congresses, except the 118th (2023-2025), to stop gerrymandering by allowing each state to establish an independent redistricting commission. It was rejected in committee each time because it lacked sufficient support from Democratic leaders to move forward. Some leaders were concerned that national reform might weaken their party’s advantage in states where Democrats controlled redistricting, and worried that pushing the issue too aggressively could create divisions within the caucus or risk existing seats. Note: During the 117th Session (2021-2023), her 2021 version was included in the House version of the For the People Act (H.R. 1) as part of the redistricting provisions, but it failed to pass the Senate. Ten sessions in total!
Barack Obama briefly held a 60-seat Senate majority in 2009, lasting about 72 working days from July 7, 2009, to February 4, 2010. During those 72 days, Democrats did not advance election reform, including bills on gerrymandering, the Electoral College, or voting rights.
Lofgren’s redistricting bill, H.R.5596, came four months after the 60-vote majority ended, with 12 co-sponsors—all California Democrats. Speaker Nancy Pelosi did not support it, expecting Democrats to win the 2010 midterms and control redistricting.
At that time, Democrats held 57 Senate seats with two allied independents, and 255 of 433 Representatives. The Supreme Court was split 4–4, with Chief Justice Roberts as the swing vote.
The 2010 midterms saw Democrats lose 63 House seats, 6 Senate seats, 6 governorships, and approximately 726 state legislative seats.
Key Redistricting Reform Efforts (2025-2026)
At least nine distinct bills to regulate congressional redistricting—specifically, to ban mid-decade map redrawing—have been introduced in the 119th Congress (2025-2026). Click each bill number to read its summary and a list of co-sponsors.
Ban Mid-Decade Redistricting bills:
On July 10, 2025, Rep. Marc Veasey [D-TX-33] introduced H.R. 4358, the Anti-Rigging Act of 2025, with nine co-sponsors.
On August 5, Rep. Kevin Kiley [I-CA-3] introduced H.R. 4889, titled To prohibit States from carrying out more than one Congressional redistricting after a decennial census and apportionment, with two co-sponsors.
On October 28, Rep. Donald Davis [D-NC-1] introduced H. R. 5837—Restoring Electoral Stability to Enhance Trust (RESET)—without any co-sponsors.
On October 31, Rep. Vicente Gonzalez [D-TX-34] introduced H.R. 5879, the Save American Democracy Act, with six co-sponsors.
Require Independent Redistricting Commissions bills:
On July 25, Rep. Donald Beyer [D-VA-8] introduced H.R. 4632, the Fair Representation Act, with six co-sponsors.
On September 17, Rep. Steve Cohen [D-TN-9] introduced H.R. 5426, the John Tanner and Jim Cooper Fairness and Independence in Redistricting Act. Imagine that it has no co-sponsors!
The next day, September 18, Rep. Zoe Lofgren [D-CA-18] reintroduced H.R. 5449—Redistricting Reform Act of 2025. House Minority Leader Jeffries is not among the 58 co-sponsors. On the other side of the Capitol, Sen. Alex Padilla [D-CA] proudly introduced S. 2885—Redistricting Reform Act of 2025, with three co-sponsors.
On January 26, 2026, Rep. Mike Lawler [R-NY-17] introduced H.R. 7219, the Fair Apportionment and Independent Redistricting for Maps that Avoid Partisanship (FAIR MAP) Act, with one co-sponsor.
The low number of co-sponsors shows that these bills have little chance of passing without immediate pressure from constituents like you. When lawmakers hear directly from the people they represent, especially in significant numbers, they take notice and often reconsider their priorities. Your call, letter, or email signals to your representative that voters are paying attention and care deeply about redistricting reform. Act now: call or write your representative and insist they support redistricting reform. Your engagement is vital.
As I approach my 82nd birthday in July, I realize that ending gerrymandering may not happen in my lifetime. But I stay committed—and urge you to do the same. Take an active role: demand your representative support federal action against gerrymandering. Together we can lead meaningful change.
Howard Gorrell is an advocate for the deaf, a former Republican Party election statistician, and a longtime congressional aide. He has been advocating against partisan gerrymandering for four decades.
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The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact could reshape presidential elections as Midwest states debate Electoral College reform, political polarization, and the future of winner-take-all voting in America.
Getty Images, SDI Productions
700+ Proposed Amendments Failed, Midwest Voters Can Succeed
May 21, 2026
The Midwest served as the vanguard and ideological heartland of the Progressive Era, acting as a crucial laboratory for political, social, and economic reforms that later adopted national significance. Midwestern states (the cradle of the movement) pioneered anti-monopoly efforts, democratic, and social improvements.
After 770+ failed proposed U.S. Constitutional Amendments (the most on record for one issue) to remedy the factionalism (21st century polarization) feared by the Framers of the U.S. Constitution.
The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC), a creative legal workaround, without requiring a U.S. Constitutional amendment, will be deliberated in (2027-2028) in many Midwest legislatures, with great emphasis on Michigan and Wisconsin, with fifteen and ten electoral votes, respectively. As the compact needs 48 more electoral votes to hit the 270-vote threshold, these purple or contested states are key battlegrounds where legislative control could determine whether they join the 19 jurisdictions already signed on.
The winner-take-all (WTA) electoral system, now utilized by 48 states and the District of Columbia, is the catalyst for the extreme political polarization (or "factionalism") that characterizes 21st-century American politics, a dynamic the Framers of the Constitution specifically sought to prevent.
The framers of the U.S. Constitution, particularly James Madison and George Washington, feared that political factions—groups united by common interests contrary to the rights of others would tear the new nation apart, leading to corruption, instability, and the erosion of liberty. They believed factions would prioritize narrow, partisan goals over the common good. 21st-century case in point: Project 2025! Prior to the formation of the author of Project 2025, many proposed Electoral College amendments had bipartisan support, with some failing to invoke closure in the Senate due to the filibuster.
NPVIC is an agreement among U.S. states and the District of Columbia to award all their electoral votes to the presidential ticket that wins the overall popular vote in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. It is considered a pragmatic, voluntary state-based initiative because it aims to ensure the winner of the national popular vote wins the presidency without requiring a constitutional amendment, operating instead within the existing Electoral College framework by utilizing states' constitutional authority to appoint electors. If enough states join the NPVIC to reach a total of 270 electoral votes, the United States will effectively shift from a winner-take-all regime to a national popular vote system for electing the President.
With Virginia’s adoption, the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact has been adopted by eighteen states and the District of Columbia, which collectively hold 222 electoral votes. The compact requires 270 electoral votes (a majority of the 538 total) to take effect. It currently needs forty-eight more electoral votes to become active.
In the 2016 U.S. presidential election, a small group of 12 battleground states functioned as "magnets," attracting virtually all campaign resources, with candidates concentrated 99% of their advertising and 94% of physical visits on these "up for grabs" territories. Electoral college wins have ranged from 100% (George Washington) to barely more than 50%. Elections in the 21st century have been closer, on average, than most prior elections.
Efforts to reform or abolish the Electoral College (an institution of “minority rule” in and of itself) have historically failed due to institutional features that empower political minorities, a phenomenon frequently described as the "triple tyranny of the minority" within the U.S. constitutional system. These are: the U.S. Senate (Malapportionment), the Senate grants two seats to every state regardless of population, the Senate Filibuster, and the Constitutional Amendment Process. These institutions allow a small fraction of the population to block changes favored by the majority.
Historical Failed Amendments
• On September 18, 1969, the House passed a direct election amendment with a strong bipartisan vote (338-70). While heavily bipartisan, the effort died in the Senate in 1970 due to a filibuster led by Southern senators. Despite roughly 80% public support and a 338-70 House vote in favor, the proposal died when the 91st Congress ended.
• 1979: A proposal to abolish the Electoral College failed in the Senate with a 51-48 vote, falling short of the required two-thirds majority.
• Post-2000/2016: Despite the winner of the popular vote losing the presidency, subsequent attempts to pass constitutional amendments have failed to gain traction, due to the partisan perception that the system favors Republicans.
Institutional "Tyranny" and Reform
Experts argue that the combination of these elements creates a system where popular majorities cannot easily alter the foundational mechanisms of government. Because a formal amendment is so difficult, reformers have shifted to initiatives like the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, which attempts to change the system without amending the Constitution.
Hugh J. Campbell, Jr., CPA, is a Governance, Risk & Compliance (GRC) professional and a student of W. Edwards Deming, the American statistician often credited as the catalyst for the Japanese economic miracle after WWII.
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Some MAGA loyalists have turned on Trump. Why the rest haven’t