Skip to content
Search

Latest Stories

Top Stories

Voters views on key economic issues have shifted since 2020

"It's the economy, stupid!"; is written with a neon light in the countryside at dusk
marcoventuriniautieri/Getty Images

Nevins is co-publisher of The Fulcrum and co-founder and board chairman of the Bridge Alliance Education Fund.

This is the third in a series reviewing the 2024 US Celebrity & Politician Warmth & Competence Study. Created by The Fulcrum and the data analytics firm Fidelum Partners, the nationally representative study assesses the voting intentions of U.S adults and their perceptions toward 18 well-known celebrities and politicians.

A recent study of Americans’ views of politicians and celebrities concluded that the presidential election will be decided primarily by voters’ warmth, competence and admiration perceptions of the candidates, not just their specific policies or stances on social issues.

Eighty-three percent of respondents’ willingness to vote for Vice President Kamala Harris is driven by perceived warmth, competence and admiration for her. A nearly equal 82 percent of willingness to vote for former President Donald Trump is driven by those sentiments.


While warmth and admiration play a dominant role in determining how citizens will vote, views on the issues certainly cannot be ignored and play into voters' feelings toward the candidates.

The 2024 US Celebrity & Politician Warmth & Competence Study found that, since 2020, attitudes have shifted on some of the key issues that will determine the outcome of the election, including views on the economy. James Carville, Bill Clinton’s chief strategist, told campaign workers in 1992 that “It’s the economy, stupid,” making clear where to focus in the race against George H. W. Bush. That belief remains prevalent today over 30 years later, as most political strategists believe economic issues are a key determinant of who will win the election.

Sign up for The Fulcrum newsletter

Several questions in the report relate directly to perceptions about the economy and clearly show shifts in perceptions between 2020 and today. When asked if “the economic system in this country is generally fair to most Americans,” 24 percent felt that was the case in 2020, but just 18 percent feel so today. This increase in the belief that the system is not fair to most Americans, on the surface, is not good for either of the two candidates. However, since this statement is more highly correlated to voting support for Harris, the net benefit would go to her on this question.

The survey also asked whether business corporations make too much profit. Since 2020 the number of respondents believing this is the case jumped from 40 percent to 48 percent. Given the very high percentage of those surveyed agreeing to the premise, this should play favorably for Harris. The vice president has been taking advantage of the belief about corporations making too much money, proposing an increase in the corporate income tax rate from 21 percent to 28 percent.

Roughly one-third of respondents agreed with two other economic statements — that hard work and determination do not guarantee success for most people and that people lead hard lives because government benefits don’t go far enough. Harris has emphasized both of these concerns in her economic policies through her proposal to strengthen Social security “for the long haul by making millionaires and billionaires pay their fair share in taxes” and by her proposal to raise the amount individuals pay in payroll taxes to an income level higher than the current benchmark of $168,600.

While Harris’ economic proposals are more overtly targeted to appeal to the economic concerns of the middle class, Trump approaches the issue through a different lens. He focuses on the impact the “border crisis” has on everyday Americans and the threat China’s allegedly unfair trade practices pose to worker security. In 2018, when Trump was president, he told the nation:

“Illegal immigration affects the lives of all Americans. Illegal immigration hurts American workers; burdens American taxpayers; and undermines public safety; and places enormous strain on local schools, hospitals, and communities in general, taking precious resources away from the poorest Americans who need them most. Illegal immigration costs our country billions and billions of dollars each year.”

And two years later, while still president, Trump said this about China:

“China’s pattern of misconduct is well known. For decades, they have ripped off the United States like no one has ever done before. Hundreds of billions of dollars a year were lost dealing with China, especially over the years during the prior administration. China raided our factories, offshored our jobs, gutted our industries, stole our intellectual property, and violated their commitments under the World Trade Organization.”

chart showing survey data

As we approach the election, both sides will counter the efficacy of the solutions presented by the other side. But one thing is clear: The strategists for both Harris and Trump believe “It’s the economy stupid.”

Learn more about how voters’ warmth, competence and admiration perceptions of the candidates play into their perceptions on these economic issues and other critical issues facing our nation by reading the full report.

Read More

Public Perspectives: "I've never felt more depressed or hopeless."
man in black suit jacket
Photo by Sean Ferigan on Unsplash

Public Perspectives: "I've never felt more depressed or hopeless."

Ahead of Election Day 2024, the Fulcrum launched We the People, a series elevating the voices and visibility of the persons most affected by the decisions of elected officials.

Now, we continue the series to learn if the Donald Trump administration is meeting the voters' motivations for voting in the 2024 presidential election.

Keep ReadingShow less
Concern Over Education and Family Services in Rhode Island

Pictures of residents of Rhode Island, including educators and elected officials

The Fulcrum

Concern Over Education and Family Services in Rhode Island

Ahead of Election Day 2024, the Fulcrum launched We the People, a series elevating the voices and visibility of the persons most affected by the decisions of elected officials.

Now, we continue with the series The 50, a four-year multimedia project that visits the public where they live across all 50 states to learn what motivated them to vote in the 2024 presidential election and see how the Donald Trump administration is meeting those concerns and hopes.

Providence, Rhode Island, founded in 1636, is one of the oldest cities in New England and one of the first cities in the country to industrialize, noted for its textile manufacturing and subsequent machine tool, jewelry, and silverware industries.

Keep ReadingShow less
In Swing-State Pennsylvania, a Latino-Majority City Looks Back at the 2024 Election

In Swing-State Pennsylvania, a Latino-Majority City Looks Back at the 2024 Election

Ahead of Election Day 2024, the Fulcrum launched We the People, a series elevating the voices and visibility of the persons most affected by the decisions of elected officials.

Now, we continue with the series The 50, a four-year multimedia project that visits the public where they live across all 50 states to learn what motivated them to vote in the 2024 presidential election and see how the Donald Trump administration is meeting those concerns and hopes.

Keep ReadingShow less
California's Bishop Latino Community Grapples with Trump’s Return

Street scene, Bishop, California

Robin Linse

California's Bishop Latino Community Grapples with Trump’s Return

With President Donald Trump’s inauguration, the Latino community of the self-proclaimed “Mule Capital of the World”—the city of Bishop, California—remains torn.

Biden took Inyo County by the narrow margin of 14 votes in 2020, while Trump won by 267 votes this year, according to an election summary report.

Keep ReadingShow less