In late July, President Trump signed an executive order urging local authorities to find ways to force homeless individuals with mental illness into hospitals. On its face, some observers might find this move appealing. Homelessness has skyrocketed across American cities, generating headlines about homeless encampment waste and public substance use. And mental health care, which many of these individuals need, is difficult to access—and arguably easier to obtain in a hospital. But Trump’s order may in fact undermine its own aims.
Research shows that psychiatric hospitalization has little impact on “Crime and Disorder on America’s Streets,” as the executive order puts it, and which it purports to address. Instead, while the order and other Trump Administration policies may remove homelessness from public view, they neither house nor heal those suffering from it.
In a cross-national study, for example, one of us found that levels of institutionalization were unrelated to mass shooting events. In fact, people experiencing homelessness are more likely to be victims of violent crimes than perpetrators, including assault and sexual violence. If Trump is concerned about violence caused by homeless individuals, it’s unlikely that hospitalizing them will reduce it.
Moreover, the executive order advances measures that can make homelessness worse and only superficially address mental health. These measures include criminalizing homelessness, such as arresting or fining people for sleeping in public, even when there are no shelter beds or housing available. In addition, the administration aims to defund programs that oversee the safe use of substances—which primarily focus on drug addiction and are often a primary contact for people with substance use disorders—while also diverting resources to mental health and drug courts, whose long-term benefits are unclear. These are Band-Aid solutions to problems that require more comprehensive attention.
What would it really take to address homelessness? For one, more and better housing, offered alongside comprehensive medical, social, and psychiatric care tailored to clients’ individual needs, and provided regardless of an individual’s sobriety, employment, or other behavior-change prerequisites. Known as the “Housing First” model, decades of research from around the world confirm that this approach is one of the most effective tools to end homelessness, particularly for people with severe mental illness, long durations of homelessness, and complex medical needs.
The executive order says the Department of Housing and Urban Development should end support for some “housing first” programs. This threatens successful housing programs and risks increasing homelessness, especially for high-risk groups. The Veterans Affairs is one example of this success: long-term investments in housing with comprehensive medical and mental health services have seen a 55% reduction in homelessness among veterans since 2010.
The federal government could also do more to help state and local governments implement Housing First policies. In a national study, one of us found that although the homelessness crisis typically occurs on public property, local governments often aren’t involved with designing or implementing the type of supportive “Housing First” policies necessary to end homelessness. Instead, those tasks are delegated to local non-profits, which may lack the authority or resources needed to create effective policies, and which often face pushback from local governments.
However, evidence shows that improving resource capacity for nonprofits helps them to better coordinate with, or even become part of, local governments in order to implement supportive Housing First policies. The federal government can play an important role here too. In 2023, for instance, the Department of Health and Human Services took steps to allow states to use Medicaid to pay for non-traditional services like housing costs and medical respite beds.
The federal government can also do more to improve access to public mental health care, the second piece of the puzzle. Over the past several decades, the United States has systematically divested from mental health care. The federal government has played an important role in incentivizing these divestments. But it could change track by eliminating major payment restrictions on inpatient mental health care, such as Medicaid’s IMD exclusion and Medicare’s 190-day lifetime cap, which limits the government funding available for inpatient mental health care. Expanding that funding would help expand needed mental health care services.
The federal government could also require state Medicaid programs to cover comprehensive mental health services and regulate insurance programs so that safety-net providers—who deliver care to low-income, homeless individuals—are reimbursed at sustainable, market rates. Such policy changes would go a long way towards expanding access to behavioral health services for these individuals, who badly need these services to maintain stable housing.
This executive order appears to be but one more blow to Americans at risk of and experiencing homelessness. Combined with the “Big Beautiful Bill’s” severe Medicaid cuts, food assistance work requirements, and expansions to military and police capacities, the executive order is more likely to penalize than to prevent homelessness and mental illness.
To tackle the root causes of homelessness, real reform will require a policy approach that treats people experiencing homelessness like humans—not trash to “clean up.”
Charley E. Willison is Assistant Professor of Public Health at Cornell University and author of Ungoverned and Out of Sight: Public Health and the Political Crisis of Homelessness in the United States.
Isabel M. Perera is Assistant Professor of Government at Cornell University and author of The Welfare Workforce : Why Mental Health Care Varies Across Affluent Democracies.



















image of U.S. President Donald Trump is displayed on a digital billboard in Times Square in New York on April 8, 2026.
Trump is stuck between two realities. Neither serves the American people
Normally, I worry that events may overtake a column. But not so with the Iran war.
I don’t worry about running afoul of a headline or Truth Social post from the president because what is said about the situation is no longer very relevant to the reality.
On April 8, Nick Catoggio, my Dispatch colleague, dubbed an earlier stoppage with Iran “Schrödinger’s ceasefire.” This was a reference to the famous thought experiment by the physicist Erwin Schrödinger, who was trying to explain the weirdness of “superpositionality” in quantum physics. A cat in a box is both dead and alive at the same time until you open the box. Schrödinger meant to illustrate the absurdity of the idea that particles aren’t any one thing, but a “cloud of probabilities.”
The Trump administration is stuck in a word cloud of probabilities of his own making. The war is over. The war is on. The war isn’t a war. We have a deal, but we don’t have a deal, but we’re about to have a deal. We destroyed Iran’s military. No, we left it intact. We want regime change. No we don’t. We already accomplished it. We “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program a year ago. We had to go to war in February to prevent nuclear war. The Strait of Hormuz is open, closed, or something in-between. No deal without “unconditional surrender.” Let’s make a deal!
This everything-all-at-once vibe can be disorienting, particularly since most Americans didn’t have a war with Iran on their bingo cards until the shooting had already started. President Trump didn’t prepare the country or consult with Congress beforehand because he thought it would all be a smashing success in a matter of weeks.
The miscalculation that started it all: killing Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and much of Iran’s senior leadership, on the first day of the war. To “the great proud people of Iran, I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand,” Trump announced on Feb. 28. “When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations.”
I support regime change in Iran and shed no tears for Khamenei or his goons. But when you start a war by killing the regime’s top leaders, it’s not unreasonable for the remaining ones to conclude that you really intend regime change.
Khamenei was a murderous fanatic, but he was a fairly cautious one. He liked to threaten closing the Strait of Hormuz or attacking our regional allies, but he was reluctant to actually do it, fearing it would invite a regime change war. The mullahs and IRGC goons believed, not unreasonably, that if they lost their grip on power, they’d be lynched by the Iranian people they’ve brutalized for decades.
By starting with a regime change war, Trump removed any reason for the regime not to go for broke. When you have nothing to lose — particularly when you are a millenarian religious fanatic — a Persian Alamo strategy makes a lot of sense.
So Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz and attacked its neighbors.
But it turns out this wasn’t the Alamo. In the contest of wills, Trump blinked. The Iranian regime’s tolerance for punishment proved — so far — to be greater than Trump’s and that of our gulf allies. Militarily we could finish the job, but that would require ground troops and much greater economic turmoil. In a conflict Trump launched unilaterally without the prior support of Congress, NATO or the American people, Trump doesn’t have the political capital for that.
But that’s only half the problem. Trump wants the war over, but he doesn’t want to pay — militarily, economically, politically — what that would cost. So he wants to make a deal that ends it. But there is no deal available that wouldn’t come at an equally undesirable cost. Any deal that looks like what President Obama struck with the Iranians would be too embarrassing to bear. But the Iranians are convinced that they can get just such a deal, and they’re willing to drag things out as long as it takes.
The result: Trump’s in a box of his own making. He thinks he can talk his way out by simply asserting a reality that doesn’t exist. When the financial markets get nervous, he announces a breakthrough that is, at best, a possibility. When the Iranians agree to a deal that looks similar to one Obama might negotiate, Trump goes back to his threats.
It can’t go on forever. But I’m sure it’ll last until long after this column is forgotten.
Jonah Goldberg is editor-in-chief of The Dispatch and the host of The Remnant podcast. His Twitter handle is @JonahDispatch.