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The Program for Public Consultation at the University of Maryland releases a new survey, fielded February 6-7, 2025, with a representative sample of 1,160 adults nationwide.
Pexels, Tima Miroshnichenko
Large Bipartisan Majorities Oppose Deep Cuts to Foreign Aid
Feb 11, 2025
An overwhelming majority of 89% of Americans say the U.S. should spend at least one percent of the federal budget on foreign aid—the current amount the U.S. spends on aid. This includes 84% of Republicans and 94% of Democrats.
Fifty-eight percent oppose abolishing the U.S. Agency for International Development and folding its functions into the State Department, including 77% of Democrats and 62% of independents. But 60% of Republicans favor the move.
These are some of the findings of a new survey by the Program for Public Consultation at the University of Maryland, fielded February 6-7, 2025, with a representative sample of 1,160 adults nationwide.
Americans greatly overestimate the amount spent on U.S. foreign aid. The majority of respondents estimate that at least 20 percent of the budget goes to foreign aid. Asked what percentage of the federal budget should go to foreign aid, the majority says that it should be at least ten percent (Republicans said five percent, Democrats said ten percent, and independents said ten percent).
Director of the Program for Public Consultation Steven Kull comments, “Extreme overestimations of the amount of U.S. foreign aid have led some Americans in some polls to favor reductions from this assumed amount. But large majorities support the actual amount of U.S. aid.”
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Respondents evaluated spending on six foreign aid programs. For each one, they were informed of its key functions and annual spending and evaluated pro and con arguments. Majorities, nationwide, want to increase or keep funding the same for humanitarian relief (56%), economic development (56%), global health (64%), education (67%), the environment (65%), and Democracy and human rights (60%). Only 8-14% favor eliminating any of the programs. While a majority of Republicans favor cutting some programs, this includes 14-19% who favor cutting them “a little.” Less than half support cutting them “somewhat” (19-30%) or eliminating them (11-20%).
Arguments for and against foreign aid, in general, were evaluated before respondents made any spending recommendations for aid programs. The argument that did best overall focused on how aid “saves lives, alleviates suffering and hunger” and “helps communities recover.” Seventy-eight percent found this convincing, including 73% of Republicans and 87% of Democrats. The con arguments that focused on how “taking care of problems at home is more important” and that there is “waste and corruption” in foreign aid, were also found convincing by around three quarters. Over seven in ten also found the counter-argument that studies have found that claims of substantial waste and fraud are exaggerated as convincing.
“Support for the government providing foreign aid is rooted in moral concerns and beliefs that it is effective and serves U.S. interests,” commented Evan Charles Lewitus, Senior Research Analyst at PPC. “While concerns about waste and fraud in foreign aid resonate with many, their support for aid suggests they would rather try to fix the problems than cut spending.”
Respondents evaluated whether foreign aid should be distributed more through bilateral channels to specific countries, which currently makes up two thirds of aid, or more through multilateral institutions like the UN. Keeping the current balance is preferred by 39% of respondents (Republicans 34%, Democrats 46%). A third of respondents support increasing the amount channeled bilaterally (36% of Republicans, 32% of Democrats), and 26% prefer shifting the balance to multilateral institutions.
The public also overestimates how much the U.S. spends on foreign aid, relative to other developed countries, as a percentage of their total economy. Compared to the average of developed countries, the U.S. spends less. Over six in ten Americans, however, believe the U.S. spends more, including 70% of Republicans and 59% of Democrats.
About the Survey
This public consultation survey was conducted by the Program for Public Consultation at the University of Maryland. Unlike standard polls, respondents in a public consultation survey go through an online “policymaking simulation” in which they are provided briefings and arguments for and against each policy. Content is reviewed by experts to ensure accuracy and balance. All Americans are invited to go through the same policymaking simulation as the survey sample.
The survey was fielded February 6-7, 2025 with 1,160 adults nationally at the University of Maryland’s School of Public Policy. Samples were obtained from multiple online opt-in panels, including Cint, Dynata and Prodege. Sample collection and quality control were managed by QuantifyAI under the direction of the Program for Public Consultation. Samples were pre-stratified and weighted by age, race, gender, education, income, marital status, and home ownership to match the general adult population. The survey was offered in both English and Spanish. The confidence interval is +/- 3.1%.
Foreign Aid Questionnaire with Toplines, Crosstabs, and Methodology
Steven Kull is program director of the Program for Public Consultation. Evan Charles Lewitus is a research analyst at Voice of the People. Evan Fehsenfeld is a Harrison Fellow and has taught at both the University of Maryland and George Washington University.
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Recommended
A Super Bowl of Unity
Feb 11, 2025
Philadelphia is known as the City of Brotherly Love, and perhaps it is fitting that the Philadelphia Eagles won Sunday night's Super Bowl 59, given the number of messages of unity, resilience, and coming together that aired throughout the evening.
The unity messaging started early as the pre-game kicked off with movie star Brad Pitt narrating a moving ad that champions residence and togetherness in honor of those who suffered from the Los Angeles fires and Hurricane Helen:
“By lifting others, that’s how we rise up. We, the people. Today, we come together, not just these players and coaches or these teams and sides. We, all of us, the dreamers, the warriors, the builders and believers,” Pitt said. “Brought together to celebrate our greatest game, the game that teaches us what we can achieve when we gather together in a that most American of formations, the one most fundamental to every play call in every game, the huddle. Think about it. When we are bound by a common goal, we have reached heights, authored achievements, pushed progress, not alone but together, in ways that have lifted the world and one another.”
Pitt went on to say:
“The huddle is a metaphor for our history, for the power found in our shared purpose. It’s in the will to imagine flight and then soar skyward. They change the course of human history and the courage to fight and defeat the enemy,” Pitt added. “It’s in our collective spirit, not just in the highest times, but in the hardest, in the darkness and the trouble and the struggle.
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Shortly after Pitt’s powerful message, Lady Gaga performed "Hold My Hand" during a pre-taped segment. The moving lyrics encourage people to hold on to each other during tough times and to find strength in togetherness. The song featured in the movie "Top Gun: Maverick" was written to convey a sense of hope and solidarity.
These messages of love, compassion, and the importance of human connection were seen many times throughout the game, seemingly in juxtaposition to the divisive and separating messages so often heard from our nation's political leaders.
As I listened to these Super Bowl messages, I imagined a nation that dismisses old definitions of right and left and focuses instead on values and an optimistic vision for the future of America.
Those were the messages I heard last night, of course, interspersed with the normal marketing ads.
Throughout the evening, I watched the passion and positive impact music, the arts, and celebrities can inspire in this time of political, social media, and internet-driven divisiveness as the power of music and celebrity calls for unity and compassion in our nation.
Perhaps the most powerful message of all was the “Stand Up to Hate” commercial featuring Tom Brady and Snoop Dogg as they address hate in America. In commenting on the ad, Brady said:
This Super Bowl, football is on my mind, but so is something even bigger — building a world where hate has no place. The No Reason to Hate campaign isn’t just a message; it’s a movement. I’m proud to be a part of it, and I hope you’ll join us."
Snoop Dogg added
“It doesn’t matter what your background is, what you look like, or where you come from, hate is never the answer. It’s time we all start seeing it for what it is and together, take a stand against hate."
The game continued with the Eagles dominating the Chiefs, and I was amazed as more and more messages of togetherness and compassion continued throughout the game.
Dove ran a beautiful ad titled “These Legs,” celebrating diverse body types and acceptance. The ad focused on promoting body confidence and encouraging girls to stay in sports despite facing criticism about their body types. It featured a young girl running joyfully with Bruce Springsteen's "Born to Run" playing in the background.
And, of course “What is Greatness?” the ad that aired during the first half of the game featuring various images of people from different backgrounds coming together. This ad is a part of the "He Gets Us" campaign aimed to reshape public perception of Jesus by highlighting his teachings of love, compassion, and empathy. It seeks to inspire people to see Jesus as someone who truly understands and cares for humanity, promoting unity and kindness
This is not the first Super Bowl with an abundance of socially conscious ads. Budweiser's "Born the Hard Way" in 2018 depicted the journey of Adolphus Busch, a German immigrant who faced xenophobia while coming to America, highlighting the immigrant experience and America's identity as a nation of immigrants. In the same year, Audi's "Daughter" ad focused on gender pay inequality, showing a father contemplating how to explain to his daughter that she will be valued less than men despite her skills and intelligence.
And perhaps the most famous of them all was Pepsi's "The Choice of a New Generation," which celebrated diversity and inclusion, featuring a multicultural cast and the message that Pepsi is for everyone.
All of these ads aimed to sell products make a positive impact, and raise awareness about important social issues during the Super Bowl, which is a unique platform that reaches a massive audience.
The Super Bowl in America is more than just a football game. It’s a cultural event bringing people from all walks of life together and bringing family and friends together to celebrate.
Let us hope these powerful ads resonate deeply with viewers after the game ends. Now is not the time for corporate America and non-profits to shy away from messages of unity and diversity. If done correctly, these messages can tap into our consciousness and emotions to inspire us all.
David Nevins is co-publisher of The Fulcrum and co-founder and board chairman of the Bridge Alliance Education Fund.
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The Paradox for Independents
Feb 10, 2025
Political independents in the United States are not chiefly moderates. In The Independent Voter, Thomas Reilly, Jacqueline Salit, and Omar Ali make it clear that independents are basically anti-establishment. They have a "mindset" that aims to dismantle the duopoly in our national politics.
I have previously written about different ways that independents can obtain power in Washington. First, they can get elected or converted in Washington and advocate with their own independent voices. Second, they can seek a revolution in which they would be the most dominant voice in Washington. And third, a middle position, they can seek a critical mass in the Senate especially, namely five to six seats, which would give them leverage to help the majority party get to 60 votes on policy bills.
Since they do not speak with one voice—after all, there are about 60 million independents or unaffiliated voters in the United States, not to mention a large percentage of the 85 million 'eligible' voters who are not 'registered' to vote—there is no one path they should all follow.
The most reasonable path forward for independents is to pursue their independence from both major parties even as they advocate for what I have called a tripartisan system of governance in Washington. This would be a system in which there are three political forces in Washington, not two. The time has come for the United States to jettison the goal of bipartisanship and replace it with the goal of tripartisanship. Bipartisanship is not the goal in multiparty democracies throughout the world.
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The paradox for independents is that in order to achieve their independence from the Democratic and Republican Parties they must commit to working with them and not trying to overtake them. Like women in progressive quarters in the last two generations, political independents must separate from the two powerful parties even as they seek to create a new relationship with them. The woman who needs her own identity over and above mother and wife, notably via having a career, may seek this identity even as she seeks to transform her marriage with her husband. Of course, some women may divorce their husbands and find new husbands or marry women or not marry at all. Yet, there is a model where the dominated woman, whose identity is suppressed, affirms her identity and demands that her spouse affirm it, too.
Political independents running for the U.S. Senate in 2026, for example, may advocate for the tripartisan ideal and the creation of an Independent Caucus in the U.S. Senate. They may run against Democrats and Republicans in their own state, or like Dan Osborn in his 2024 Nebraska Senate race, run as an Independent against a Republican. Yet, part of their campaign would be devoted to advocating for the tripartisan ideal.
By the time there are five or six independents in the U.S. Senate—Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and Senator Susan Collins (R-Maine) are among the handful of Republicans in the Senate who might convert—this Independent Caucus would create the foundation for what Charles Wheelan called a "fulcrum strategy," only he was focused on electing centrist members of a Centrist Party.
Tripartisans should not blast the Trump administration. The Democrats will take care of that. Indeed, the two parties are destined to fight bitterly with each other for the next four years. Tripartisans must be committed to overcoming the intense polarization in Washington and pave the way for the post-Trump years. Of course, many Republicans are hoping for post-Trump years that sustain the populist, ultra-right-wing perspective being unveiled every day. The tripartisan ideal can actually help either majority party.
To be clear: Because tripartisans are not ideologically aligned, they are not passionate about the same policies. Rather, they would each support various, though not all, policy bills (ranging from climate change to entitlement reform) because they want to end polarization and dysfunction in Washington as well as keep their seats in the U.S. Senate and the Independent Caucus.
The tripartisan model is designed to transcend the battlefield of American politics over the next two to six, and probably ten years, and integrate political independents with their own voices, attitudes, and ideas into the political process. If Senator Murkowski converted to an Independent in the first 100 days of the Trump presidency, that would be a major development: One small step for the U.S. Senate, one giant leap for the United States.
Dave Anderson edited "Leveraging: A Political, Economic and Societal Framework," has taught at five universities and ran for the Democratic nomination for a Maryland congressional seat in 2016.
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The Bureaucrat’s Dilemma When Dealing with a Charismatic Autocrat
Feb 10, 2025
Excerpt from To Stop a Tyrant by Ira Chaleff
In my book To Stop a Tyrant, I identify five types of a political leader’s followers. Given the importance of access in politics, I range these from the more distant to the closest. In the middle are bureaucrats. No political leader can accomplish anything without a cadre of bureaucrats to implement their vision and policies. Custom, culture and law establish boundaries for a bureaucrat’s freedom of action. At times, these constraints must be balanced with moral considerations. The following excerpt discusses ways in which bureaucrats need to thread this needle.
The Bureaucrat’s Dilemma When Dealing with a Charismatic Autocrat
There is a dilemma the bureaucrat dealing with an autocrat may face. Leaders and followers always interact within a specific context. In democratic societies, the strongman or autocrat is typically elevated to office in periods when the populace is experiencing social anxiety, economic uncertainty or external threat. They are primed for the message of a charismatic autocrat who promises them easy answers to difficult problems and targets the existing government as the problem for inaction.
While the charismatic populist is using and inflating the existing anxieties, there is often an element of truth to what they are saying. The people may be wondering why the government can’t do something to ease their anxieties or deprivations. The government can in fact do so, but it rarely moves quickly and dramatically. Its established processes, some mandated by law, some by rules and regulations, others by custom, often require the input of many constituencies and coordination between a number of different agencies and layers of government. This requires meetings, hearings, comment periods, collaboration, compromise and documentation, all of which take time.
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A short-term value of the populist autocrat is that they do not hold themselves to these protracted processes. With little respect for diverse perspectives or conventional norms, they tear through the maze of obstacles and seek to ram through solutions. This is a two-edged sword. On one side of the blade, this cuts through cumbersome process and accelerates muscular responses to the conditions creating anxiety, earning the support of the populace. On the other side of the blade, ramming through solutions weakens the institutions designed to equitably assign resources to programs and populations, and opens the process to large scale corruption that is difficult to document.
The principled bureaucrat is committed to preventing the latter, but must be politically astute about not thwarting the former, which has the support of the populace. This is not a task that responds well to purists. The bureaucrat will need to walk the line to support rapidly easing the burdens of the populace while maintaining the integrity of the institution and its processes.
Refusing orders that violate human rights
The greatest responsibility for correct followership to political leaders resides in a special class of bureaucratic followers — the military, law enforcement, and intelligence services. There is a conundrum here. Those who serve in these authorized vehicles of State power must be willing to use force, and at times lethal force, at the command of legitimate political leadership, yet also need to be the most willing to disobey if the order is illegitimate.
In liberal democracies, the oath taken is to defend against all enemies of the constitution, internal and external. But in the case of a de facto or actual coup, both sides will claim legitimacy regardless of objective reality. How will military personnel, intelligence, or law enforcement officers recognize the true defender from the usurper?
The usurper of political power violates the essential values that protect individual freedoms and collective decision making, supposedly in defense of the State, while undermining their very core. The classical meaning of the term “liberal values” must be understood and differentiated from attempts to distort and degrade its meaning. Classical liberal values are the sacrosanct protections of individual freedom to think, speak, write, associate, congregate and live free of arbitrary government coercion. The only legitimate constraints on these rights are where their use denies or abrogates the same rights for others.
Interestingly, these rights conferred upon all human beings living within a society are not fully given to the bureaucrats themselves, or to the armed enforcers of the law and protectors of national defense. In those capacities, individual rights are subordinated to the constraints and responsibilities of the role they are serving. It would be chaotic if everyone in a government agency were freely giving their opinion to the media of the correct interpretation of events, policies and preferred strategies. Or enforcing their own interpretation of laws and regulations. There is merit to norms and rules that require government policy positions to be systematically developed, communicated and executed.
To thwart or support?
Bureaucrats know there are a variety of tools that can be used to thwart policy changes or implementations. Morally, this is again a two-edged blade. If being used to delay or block patently immoral policies one can argue the justifications for these tactics. But in a liberal democracy this is also a problem. The government is elected to formulate policies. If this is done in reasonably fair, transparent and lawful ways, it is not the place of the bureaucracy to thwart those policies.
But what about when the elected government operates in deceitful, secretive and unlawful ways — in other words as a proto-tyrannical government? What is the bureaucrat’s responsibility?
If the politics are still largely democratic, the offending government can be turned out of office in the next election cycle. Bureaucrats aware of this, may choose to slow walk, stall and delay policy approval or implementation to mitigate damage. The ethics of this can be argued, but the use of procedural power is part of the politically savvy tool kit. If the government retains power in a fair election, bureaucrats are faced with complying or, in egregious situations, resigning on principle. Continuing to sabotage the government undermines the representative government they are seeking to defend.
If the democratic political process has been eviscerated by an autocratic regime, reducing it to a mere fig leaf, how does the ethical equation change? It is in this situation that “just following orders” is a crime and followership is tested at its moral core.
It is in the window where the abuse of power is evident and documented, but before power is consolidated, that the bureaucrat needs to act. Once power is consolidated, senior positions will be filled with cronies, adjudication processes will be nullified or packed with lackeys, media channels will be suborned or shuttered, political opposition will be silenced.
The bureaucrat who has played it safe in their career is thrust into a moral role that is anything but safe. Their core principles tightly interwoven with political awareness, are needed if they are to walk with head held high (and still attached), through the minefield being lain by the proto-tyrant.
Taking the liberty to degenderize the words of the great playwright, political dissident, and former President of the Czech Republic, Vaclav Havel, they remain highly salient:
Ira Chaleff is a speaker, innovative thinker and the author of “To Stop a Tyrant: The Power of Political Followers to Make or Brake a Toxic Leader.”
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