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Supporting the Youth Vote in 2020
Organizer: Gallup and the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement
The 2020 general election has taken on renewed importance as the twin crises of racial injustice and a global pandemic profoundly change American life. For the generation just now coming of age and finding its voice politically, this year's election offers an opportunity to shape the country's future.
Join the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE), part of Tufts University's Tisch College of Civic Life, and Gallup for a discussion on youth participation in the political process this November and beyond. Based on new research, the conversation will focus on:
- The political behaviors and attitudes of younger Millennials and Generation Z, many of whom will be voting in their first presidential election
- Young Americans' support for different candidates, and whether those candidates are reaching out to them
- Young Americans' activism and overall civic engagement, and their access to the election process—especially given changes to elections due to COVID-19
- The issues at the core of young people's interest in casting a ballot in November, with a special attention to the concerns of youth of color
Location: Webinar
Robyn Beck/Getty Images
Approximately a third of Americans under 30 cast ballots in 2018. If that turnout grows, young voters may cast the decisive ballots in November.
Young people's political activism on the rise, poll finds
Young voters are interested and engaged, and they may finally assert their power in the fall election, according to a new poll released Tuesday that finds youth activism at record highs.
And that looks like good news for Democrats, particularly former Vice President Joe Biden, who now holds a 34-point lead over President Trump among younger voters, according to researchers at Tufts University focused on politics and young adults. By comparison, Hillary Clinton held an 18-point margin over Trump when Tufts took a similar poll during the 2016 presidential campaign.
The results are significant because early expectations of a heavy turnout by young voters in prior elections haven't regularly materialized.
<p>Two years ago, for example, about a third of voters younger than 30 cast ballots in the congressional midterm — a level of turnout that trailed every other age group, but still was a big jump from the level of youth voting in the 2014 midterm.</p><p>The new poll does contain some warning signs for Democrats, and the Biden campaign in particular. Nearly one in five young voters said they would prefer someone other than the two ready to claim the major party nominations this summer.</p>
<p><p style="text-align: center;" id="sufn"><a style="font-weight: bold;margin:40px auto;font-size:2rem" href="https://thefulcrum.us/st/newsletters">Sign up for The Fulcrum newsletter </a></p></p><p>And fewer than half reported being contacted by a political party so far, which is a strong predictor of voter turnout. </p>
<p>Regardless, the survey shows a huge increase in youth activism, including:</p>
<ul class="ee-ul"><li>The percentage of youth who say they are protesting (27 percent) is five times the level of four years ago, a clear reflection of the rallies in hundreds of big and small cities nationwide to protest police brutality and systemic racism in the month since George Floyd's death.</li><li>Half of voters in their teens and twenties say they have encouraged other people to vote — and a quarter of them reported they have helped to register voters. Both percentages are far higher than before the last presidential election.</li><li>More than 8 in 10 said they believe young people have the power to change the country and about the same percentage said the coronavirus pandemic has helped them realize that politics impacts their everyday lives.</li></ul>
<p>"It is clear that 2020 could be a watershed election for youth participation," said Alan Solomont, dean of the Tisch College of Civic Life at Tufts, which conducted the poll.</p>
<p>But the survey also found young citizens need help in navigating the logistics of voting. </p>
<p>A third of them said they did not know whether they are allowed to register online. And, of those who answered the question, one-fourth got it wrong. (The correct answer is online signups are allowed in <a href="https://thefulcrum.us/voting/coronavirus-impact-on-voter-registration" target="_self">all but nine states</a>.) </p>
<p>Most critically, only one in four reported ever having voted by mail before. That's in line with the number nationwide in recent elections, but the share is sure to surge this fall because of Covid-19 — although by how much will depend on voter education as well as whether states change their rules or spend more to smooth their systems</p>
<p>"We must convey clear and accessible information about when, how and where young people can register and vote and actively reach out to you," said Kei Kawashima-Ginsberg, director of the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning at Tufts.</p>
<p>The center commissioned the poll from Gallup, which interviewed 2,232 adults ages 18 to 29 in the four weeks ending June 18. The poll's margin of error was 4.1 percentage points.</p>
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Civic Ed
True
Ariel Skelley/Getty Images
Pandemic or not, young people remain key to elections — and democracy
Kiesa is director of impact for CIRCLE, which conducts research on the civic engagement of young voters at Tufts University.
<p>The 2020 election will almost certainly be unlike any other in modern history, as Americans will vote this November in the shadow of Covid-19. </p><p>Many election administrators, democracy advocates and media are understandably focused on the unique challenges posed by holding an election during a pandemic. But we should not forget one of the perennial opportunities and challenges for a representative and vibrant democracy: ensuring all young people can participate equitably in elections.</p><p>At CIRCLE, formally the Tufts <a href="http://circle.tufts.edu/" target="_blank">Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement</a> at the <a href="http://tischcollege.tufts.edu" target="_blank">Tisch College of Civic Life</a>, we have been studying youth political participation for nearly two decades. Young people have historically turned out at lower rates than older adults, but recent elections have been encouraging. In 2018, we estimated <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/28-young-people-voted-2018" target="_blank">28 percent of voters younger than 30 </a> cast a ballot — their highest turnout ever in a midterm election and more than double the rate of four years before.</p><p>That boost was fueled by the tireless work of advocates, organizers and <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/gun-violence-prevention-movement-fueled-youth-engagement-2018-election" target="_blank">young people themselves</a>, many of whom reached out to engage their peers. The restrictions forced by the coronavirus, necessary as they may be to slow the spread of the deadly disease, threaten to prevent a repeat of such crucial efforts this year.</p><p><p style="text-align: center;" id="sufn"><a style="font-weight: bold;margin:40px auto;font-size:2rem" href="https://thefulcrum.us/st/newsletters">Sign up for The Fulcrum newsletter </a></p></p><p>Campuses and schools closed this spring, and maybe again this fall, eliminate important places for registering young voters and giving them opportunities for political engagement. Such newer voters often need information and help navigating the elections process — and social distancing makes such outreach more difficult. And the process itself may be changing, with many states altering their usual systems to expand <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/young-people-and-vote-mail-lessons-2020" target="_blank">voting by mail</a>.</p><p><a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-reach-young-voters-when-theyre-stuck-at-home-135280" target="_blank">These challenges can be overcome</a>, but only if stakeholders make concerted efforts to consider young adults' needs. We should all be invested in assuring every one of them feels prepared and motivated to vote, especially those from historically marginalized communities. </p><p>It matters for the health of our democracy: There are more than 47 million potential voters younger than 30, and their voices are vital to the conversation about issues that will affect them for the rest of their lives. </p><p>And it matters for equity: There are differences in youth turnout based on educational attainment, race and ethnicity — and other factors that first reflect but then perpetuate inequality and marginalization from civic life.</p><p>Campaigns and candidates have another reason to care: Young people can decide elections. </p><p>We recently issued this year's version of our <a href="http://circle.tufts.edu/yesi2020" target="_blank">Youth Electoral Significance Index</a>. Relying on more than a dozen measures of demographics, recent voting patterns and electoral competitiveness, it ranks states and districts where young voters have the biggest potential to decide House and Senate elections as well as the presidency. </p><p>And while it does not predict youth turnout or who will get elected, there is evidence the young cast decisive votes in the most competitive races. Two years ago, for example, the election produced a party switch in 30 of the 50 House districts where we saw the youth vote as most influential.</p><p>Here are three of the most important takeaways from our YESI report for 2020:</p><p><strong>Picking the president. </strong>The 2016 election was decided in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida and Michigan. Donald Trump won them all by less than 2 percentage points, while young people cast many times more votes than his margin of victory. Those states are central to the outcome again this year — and place first, second, fourth and seventh in our youth vote presidential power ranking. Put simply: Young people are positioned to decide whether Trump or Joe Biden is elected.</p><p><strong>Impact everywhere.</strong> Nineteen states are represented across our three different top 10 rankings — for the youth vote's influence on the presidential, Senate and House outcomes. They include red states and blue states from every corner of the country, from Colorado to New Hampshire and Minnesota to Alabama.</p><p><strong>Youth of color.</strong> People of color make up more than half the youth electorate in Arizona (No. 4 in our Senate ranking), Florida (No. 4 on the presidential list) and Georgia (No. 8 for Senate). They represent almost 300,000 potential voters in Alabama (No. 10 Senate). Native American youth in Montana (No. 5 Senate) could impact what looks to be a close race there, as could the 387,000 young black voters and almost 150,000 young Latinos in North Carolina (No. 2 Senate and No. 3 presidential), and the 225,000 young black voters in Michigan (No. 7 for both president and Senate).</p><p>YESI is a powerful tool for all stakeholders seeking to increase youth electoral engagement. The young care deeply about having an impact, and evidence they can sway elections can be a significant motivator in getting them to register and then vote. </p><p>Parties and candidates can see the states where investing in youth outreach can yield the most important results. Local organizations and advocates can point to their state rankings as reason for resources. University leaders can see the virtue of helping their students vote, whether they're on or off campus. Journalists can be reminded that the youth vote is a big story.</p><p>The rankings are also a call to action for advocates and politicians who don't see their states in the rankings. </p><p>Pandemic or not, close election or not, youth matter a great deal to our democracy. In every state, they are an engine driving campaigns by volunteering, organizing, registering peers and making their voices heard by the candidates. Even if they won't cast decisive votes in federal elections, they can influence state and local races that often turn on issues that matter to them. </p><p>Young people need and deserve support to step into these opportunities; they are important for their own civic development and contribute to a culture of electoral participation that stands to strengthen their electoral impact — and the country's future — for decades.</p><div></div><p>The time to start reaching out to youth about the election is now. The pandemic makes these efforts more challenging, but no less important. </p>
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Generation Citizen is among the leaders in efforts to promote "action civics, in which students identify a community problem and work to solve it.
Educators push for more diverse voices in the young and energized electorate
Carney is a contributing writer.
Student activism is on the rise, and young voters are both expanding as a bloc and mobilizing to demand action from the politicians of 2020.
But will all voices be heard, including those of marginalized and lower-income students? And will all the buzz translate into any lasting policy or political outcomes?
Such questions preoccupy not just political organizers but civic educators, who are increasingly looking for ways to make civic learning relevant to this diverse and fired-up younger generation. Research shows gaps in both civic knowledge and civic engagement between black and Hispanic students and their white peers, as well as between students from lower- and higher-income families. And as a whole, civic learning is often perceived as dominated by white perspectives and educators.
<p>To many leaders in the field, the antidote is "action civics," which typically invites students to identify a problem in their community, come up with a solution and take direct action to fix it. Leading groups that practice and promote action civics, including Generation Citizen and Mikva Challenge, have been expanding their reach, and grant-makers and other civic educators are taking notice.</p><p><p style="text-align: center;" id="sufn"><a style="font-weight: bold;margin:40px auto;font-size:2rem" href="https://thefulcrum.us/st/newsletters">Sign up for The Fulcrum newsletter </a></p></p><p>The national civic education group <a href="https://thefulcrum.us/icivics" target="_self">iCivics</a> has launched <a href="https://medium.com/civxnow/civicsforus-student-experts-learn-policy-advocacy-strategies-for-local-state-participation-feb05c4f2f1c" target="_blank">two student-centered initiatives</a>, the Equity in Civics Youth Fellowship and the Youth as Civic Experts network, to give diverse students a platform and a voice in what their civic education looks like. The projects involve a collaboration between iCivics and <a href="https://thefulcrum.us/generation-citizen" target="_self">Generation Citizen</a>, and their work has been underwritten by a six-figure grant from the Hewlett Foundation.</p><p>"This is our first foray into this whole sphere of youth activism, elevating youth voice directly," says Amber Coleman-Mortley, director of social engagement at iCivics. "Students have a lot of great ideas. They have a lot of awareness, especially underrepresented youth that are in civic deserts."</p><p>Educators at a CivXNow coalition convening last year realized that "we're missing people of color, we're missing rural communities, we're missing student voices," Coleman-Mortley says. Both the in-person youth fellowship and the online youth network set out to remedy that by inviting students to weigh in.</p><p>Another Hewlett-funded grant in Oklahoma City will test the action civics model on an entire school district, again with diversity in mind. The $1 million initiative brings together Generation Citizen, the Oklahoma City Public Schools and Tufts University's <a href="https://thefulcrum.us/center-for-information-and-research-on-civic-learning-andengagement" target="_self">Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement</a>. The idea is to train teachers throughout the district to incorporate action civics into a range of courses, including social studies and history.</p><p>"If we can be successful in integrating these practices and these ideas in a school system within a state that is really struggling with public education, then that is something that we can apply in other places," says Rey Junco, director of research at CIRCLE. "And by doing it this way, we learn things about young people who are not typically represented in the civic space that we can then fold back into educational initiatives."</p><p>The push toward action civics coincides with an upsurge in youth activism, not just in the United States but also worldwide. Young people have always been on the vanguard of public protests, of course, but climate change, gun violence, and threats to immigrant and LGBTQ rights have all helped drive students to the streets.</p><p>The number of people ages 18-24 who had attended a march or demonstration tripled between 2016 and 2018,<a href="https://civicyouth.org/circle-poll-so-much-for-slacktivism-as-youth-translate-online-engagement-to-offline-political-action/" target="_blank"> according to CIRCLE</a>, and that was even before Swedish teenager Greta Thunberg launched a worldwide "Fridays for Future" movement that drew millions of students to school climate strikes last year.</p><p>This year, a U.S. Climate Strike Coalition<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jan/25/climate-change-election-2020-youth-activism" target="_blank"> is mobilizing students</a> to turn out voters, target primaries, and press for a Green New Deal — a comprehensive legislative package of public works projects and economic reforms to combat climate change. Young voters may also play an outsized role in the Democratic presidential primaries. A recent<a href="http://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/half-young-voters-back-sanders-propel-him-new-hampshire-victory" target="_blank"> analysis by CIRCLE</a> credited voters 29 and younger with propelling Sen. Bernie Sanders to victory in the New Hampshire primary.</p><p>Like their adult counterparts, the young people agitating for change are not immune from accusations that voices of color are being left out or silenced. When students at Marjorie Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Fla., sparked a nationwide movement of school walkouts over gun violence,<a href="https://www.csmonitor.com/EqualEd/2018/0323/Teens-take-the-national-stage-armed-with-civics-lessons" target="_blank"> some credited</a> the state's comprehensive civics education mandates. But<a href="https://www.thepavlovictoday.com/beyond-parkland-an-erased-history-of-black-youth-activism/" target="_blank"> others bemoaned</a> the news media's failure to report on the black youth resistance movements that had preceded Parkland.</p><p>Not everyone agrees that action civics is the best way to help students understand politics and government. Action civics has the potential to stir political controversy, to further entrench students "in their preexisting perspectives," and to leave them "cynical and disillusioned" if their activism fails to incite change, a<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/nataliewexler/2020/01/05/to-educate-good-citizens-we-need-more-than-the-new-civics/#38f6ad05c8fc" target="_blank">rgued education writer Natalie Wexler recently in Forbes</a>.</p><p>Generation Citizen CEO Scott Warren, who will leave his post in June and recently issued<a href="http://blogs.edweek.org/edweek/District_Dossier/Memo%20on%20Recommendations%20for%20the%20Civics%20Education%20Field.pdf" target="_blank"> a parting memo</a> that calls on the field to diversify, counters that education should be relevant to students' lives, whatever the topic.</p><p>"One thing that we can all agree upon is that our democracy needs to be in a better place," says Warren. "We want to ensure that more people are participating, and we want to ensure that there's more dialogue and discussion and constructive debate going on. Those are things that we really value in action civics."</p><p><em>Disclosure: </em><em>The Hewlett Foundation is also a funder of The Fulcrum.</em></p>
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