Sarah Wallace Goodman, an associate professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of California, Irvine, joins this episode of Politics in Question to discuss citizenship and its impact on politics. Goodman’s research examines citizenship and the shaping of political identity through immigrant integration.
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Election Countdown, with guest Issac Saul of Tangle News
Nov 04, 2024
Scott Klug was a 32-year Democratic member of Congress from Wisconsin. Despite winning his four elections by an average of 63 percent, he stayed true to his term limit pledge and retired.
During his time in Congress, Klug had the third most independent voting record of any Wisconsin lawmaker in the last 50 years. In September 2023, he launched a podcast, “Lost in the Middle,” to shine a spotlight on the oft ignored political center.
“The podcast was born,” Klug told Madison Magazine, “out of the sentiment that a wide swath of the American public, myself included, can’t figure out how in the hell we got to this place. And more importantly, is there a way for us out of it.”
And now with the election upon us, Klug and The Fulcrum present a series of podcasts titled “Election Countdown.”
Today we offer the third episode, featuring veteran political journalist and podcaster Issac Saul. Nobody does better work than Saul’s Tangle News. In this episode we get his insights on the state of the election and the mutual concerns about America’s mainstream press that he shares with Klug.
Sixty percent of Americans say they are worn out by so much coverage of the 2024 presidential election, according to the Pew Research Center. And then there are the nagging questions of fairness, when only 7 percent of journalists identify as Republicans.
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Enjoy this episode:
The mission of “Lost in the Middle” is serious — finding a way to something resembling common ground as a country — but it’s not solemn.
“I’m having fun,” Klug said. “I spent 14 years on TV. It’s telling stories. Getting out there and talking to people. Aside from my personal commitment to the issue, it’s just a lot of fun. I enjoy listening to people and telling stories.”
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Scenario planning for election outcomes: Finding agency in uncertainty
Nov 01, 2024
Solomon is faculty in the Stanford University's design school and a creator of civic futures programs likeVote by Design,The Futures Happening, andThe Team.
As we move closer to the election, it's tempting to oscillate between obsessive news consumption and complete disengagement. Both responses are understandable — they're deeply rooted in our evolutionary biology.
Our brains are wired for a "fight or flight" response to uncertainty, a mechanism that served our ancestors well when facing immediate physical threats. But in today's complex and polarized political landscape, this instinctive defensive posture can leave us perpetually anxious and reactive, rather than thoughtfully prepared.
As someone who has spent over two decades helping leaders and students learn to navigate complexity and envision multiple futures, I've seen firsthand how the right tools can transform anxiety about the unknown into constructive action. Through my work with organizations ranging from Fortune 500 companies to emerging democracy reform nonprofits I've found that scenario planning offers something uniquely valuable: a way to engage with uncertainty that neither minimizes its significance nor leaves us paralyzed by it.
Scenario planning used to be a process reserved for military planners and elite organizations. Over the last decade, and magnified by the pandemic, it has evolved into a more accessible approach for organizations, communities and individuals seeking to build resilience in uncertain times. The power isn't in predicting the future — an impossible task, even for "expert" pollsters. Instead, scenario planning invites us to explore multiple possible futures to assess our preparedness and inform robust decisions that can strengthen us regardless of what unfolds. This process helps rewire our instinctive defensive response to uncertainty, creating neural pathways that lead to more strategic and proactive thinking.
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Many organizations are putting these principles into practice in compelling ways. The Bridgespan Group, a global consultancy, developed an open Election Year Resource for Nonprofit Leaders to help social-sector organizations think systematically about potential risks and opportunities. Its framework explores four potential electoral outcomes: "A Democratic Trifecta," "A Republican Trifecta" and two variations of "A Divided Government." Using a robust strategic diagnostic, leaders, boards and funders can assess their organizational strength across strategy, operations and funding –= identifying actions that make sense regardless of the election outcome.
The WithIn Collaborative takes a different but complementary approach, focusing on building internal capacity and resilience. Its Election Prep Guide begins with a crucial foundation: understanding our present-day resources and strengths. It asks powerful questions like "Who are the loved ones, ancestors, colleagues and allies who are with me in times of celebration, and in times of change and uncertainty?" and "When I am up against something unexpected, what are the practices that help steady me?" This centering on the present moment — and things that are in our control — strengthens our awareness of available options, even when the world feels filled with ambiguity.
The WithIn scenario framework is elegantly simple yet profound, exploring three potential outcomes: a Democratic victory, a Republican victory or an inconclusive election. While these vignettes may not capture every detail of what might unfold, they offer productive portals for engaging with highly probable outcomes, allowing us to rehearse our responses in advance.
The power of scenario planning is that it works at multiple scales, starting with your own stance towards the future. Ask yourself: Where will you be during and after the election? Who will you be with? What support systems do you want to have in place? What information sources will you trust? How will you manage your emotional well-being? These aren't just practical questions — they're anchors that can help ground us when uncertainty peaks. By thinking through these scenarios now, we create mental and emotional scaffolding that can support us through whatever unfolds.
Robust actions — those that make sense across multiple scenarios — might include strengthening community connections, diversifying information sources, building emergency savings or developing new skills. While these moves won't predict the future, they'll make us more resilient to whatever future arrives.
While we can't control everything that happens, we're not powerless. By systematically exploring different possibilities while identifying concrete actions we can take now, we maintain our ability to act meaningfully in the present moment. That's not just good planning — it's a vital form of civic engagement and collective and personal resilience building.
I encourage you to start having these conversations in your own communities and organizations. The future may be uncertain, but by preparing together, we can face it with greater confidence and capacity.
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We need a government that works
Nov 01, 2024
Frazier is an assistant professor at the Crump College of Law at St. Thomas University and a Tarbell fellow.
The first — and really only — order of business for the government is to solve problems beyond the grasp of a single person or a small community. In exchange for that service, we the people surrender some of our income and liberty. This grand bargain breaks down when the government decides it’s got other things to do besides take care of everything from our sewage to our space debris.
The longer the government falls short of our expectations, the more likely the people will be to opt out of their own obligations, such as voting. This dangerous tit-for-tat is hard to reverse. A less effective government sparks a less dutiful public, which makes it harder for the government to perform, and so on.
That’s precisely why the first agenda item for every politician who wins in November ought to be basic government work. For Congress, it’s time to get serious about regulating artificial intelligence. A series of performative hearings in which the celebrities of AI, such as Sam Altman, made flashy appearances on Capitol Hill have yet to generate meaningful legislation. The AI Policy Roadmap recently released by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and three other senators did little to assuage concerns that Congress is happy to let states lead on AI governance.
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A handful of small bills might address specific AI issues, but — absent passage of comprehensive legislation — the public is right to question if lawmakers are taking their part of the deal seriously.
For the president, the relative tranquility of the present is the proper time to prepare for future, inevitable emergencies. The federal government’s response to Covid-19 was far from perfect. From the initial confusion over who should wear a mask and when, to prolonged and troubling efforts to quash debate over the proper response, there is tremendous room for improvement.
The nature of our interconnected and global world means that another crisis will unfortunately emerge sooner than later. Imagine the good that would come about from the president overseeing massive emergency drills in preparation of threats like the deployment of a bioweapon. Picture how much smoother the Covie response would have been if the American people had preexisting stores of emergency supplies. These efforts are flashy but they are what’s required by an effective government.
For the courts, the integration of AI into our legal system should not be left to chance. State and federal courts alike have clogged dockets and insufficient support for individuals who cannot afford a lawyer but also cannot afford to lose whatever claim brought them before the court. AI will not and cannot entirely solve those issues, but the technology should be used to the greatest extent possible to help those who too commonly find that our legal system fails to provide the justice it promises.
None of these initiatives are partisan. And all of them go to the purpose of the government: solving problems. There’s a long list of similar, basic projects that would go a long way toward making the government more effective and efficient. The longer this grows, the greater the odds of (even more) discontent and distrust. That’s why candidates across the spectrum should focus less on short-term, shiny projects and much more on what will make American lives easier both now and for decades to come.
The latter kind of project won’t get headlines on Fox or MSNBC, but it will keep the wheels of government turning, which is no small feat given decades of rust.
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In swing states, R’s and D’s oppose big tariff increases
Nov 01, 2024
Kull is program director of the Program for Public Consultation. Lewitus is a research analyst at Voice of the People.
As major proposals to change U.S. trade policy have come into the discourse, a new public consultation survey finds bipartisan majorities of Americans in six swing states, as well as nationally, support the United States maintaining low tariffs with other countries so long as they abide by agreed-upon rules. At the same time, bipartisan majorities approve of the increased tariffs that have been imposed on China in response to its alleged violations of international trade rules.
This survey is the eighth Swing Six Issue Survey, a series being conducted in the run-up to the November election in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and nationally, on major policy issues by the Program for Public Consultation at the University of Maryland.
Unlike standard polls, respondents in a public consultation survey go through an online “policymaking simulation” in which they are provided briefings and arguments for and against each policy. Content is reviewed by experts on different sides to ensure accuracy and balance. All Americans are invited to go through the samepolicymaking simulation as the survey sample.
While Americans do support the tariff increases targeted at China, bipartisan majorities oppose a tariff increase on imports from all countries. Large bipartisan majorities support the U.S. continuing to be part of the international agreements for low tariffs within a rules-based system.
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Support for Continuing International Trade System of Low Tariffs
Respondents were informed that, since World War II, the United States has been actively working to promote international trade through a system in which countries negotiate to lower their tariffs on a mutual basis, provided each country abides by agreed-upon rules. The U.S. has such trade arrangements with almost all countries — through free trade agreements and the General Agreement on Trade and Tariffs. As a result, average tariffs globally have decreased from about 22 percent in the 1940’s to about 2 percent today.
Bipartisan majorities in all swing states (80 percent to 85 percent) approve of the U.S. working with other countries to continue this system, including majorities of Republicans (73 percent to 78 percent) and Democrats (86 percent to 93 percent). Nationally, 81 percent approve (Republicans 74 percent, Democrats 88 percent).
Opposition to Across-the-Board Tariffs of 10 percent to 20 Percent
Respondents evaluated a proposal to impose tariffs of 10 percent to 20 percent on imports from all countries, including arguments that these higher tariffs would generate substantial government revenue and thus allow for reductions in taxes, as well as stimulate U.S. manufacturing and lead to better-paying jobs. They also evaluated arguments against, that raising all tariffs would violate U.S. trade agreements and likely cause the country’s biggest trading partners to retaliate with tariff increases, as well as raise consumer prices for everyone. Arguments on both sides were found convincing by bipartisan majorities.
Finally, asked which policy they prefer, less than half in all six swing states (28 percent to 35 percent) support the U.S. raising tariffs on imports from all countries to 10 percent to 20 percent, including just 34 percent to 42 percent of Republicans and 20 percent to 34 percent of Democrats. Instead, large majorities prefer the U.S. continuing to have low tariffs on a mutual basis with other countries, provided they abide by agreed-upon rules (64 percent to 71 percent), including majorities of Republicans (57 percent to 65 percent) and Democrats (66 percent to 77 percent). Nationally, 68 percent prefer continuing the current policy of low tariffs (Republicans 60 percent, Democrats 77 percent).
Support for High Tariffs on China
Respondents were informed that starting in 2018, in response to alleged violations of international trade rules by China, the United States increased tariffs on Chinese products to an average of about 20 percent, and that China retaliated with similarly high tariffs on the U.S. Bipartisan majorities in every swing state favor the U.S. continuing to impose such tariffs on Chinese imports (69 percent to 78 percent), including majorities of Republicans (75 percent to 78 percent) and Democrats (67 percent to 82 percent). Nationally, 71 percent are in favor, with no difference between Republicans (73 percent) and Democrats (72 percent).
Support for Labor and Environmental Standards in Trade Deals
The United States in its trade deal negotiations has been increasingly pushing for the inclusion of enforceable labor and environmental standards. Respondents evaluated arguments that such standards ensure that trade partners cannot get a competitive advantage by having significantly lower standards than the U.S. They also evaluated arguments against, including that the United States imposing standards on other countries and including too many provisions in trade deals will slow down international trade, which would hurt everyone.
Asked whether the U.S. should actively work to make agreements that include enforceable labor standards — including a prohibition on child labor and the right of workers to collectively bargain — bipartisan majorities are in favor in the swing states (81 percent to 87 percent) including Republicans (79 percent to 85 percent) and Democrats (89 percent to 93 percent). Nationally, 82 percent are in favor (Republicans 77 percent, Democrats 90 percent).
Asked whether the United States should actively work to make agreements that include enforceable environmental standards — which require countries to abide by environmental agreements they have signed, and not lower their standards to get a competitive edge — bipartisan majorities in the swing states are in favor (76 percent to 82 percent), including Republicans (70 percent to 76 percent) and Democrats (83 percent to 89 percent). Nationally, 78 percent are in favor (Republicans 72 percent, Democrats 86 percent).
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