• Home
  • Opinion
  • Quizzes
  • Redistricting
  • Sections
  • About Us
  • Voting
  • Events
  • Civic Ed
  • Campaign Finance
  • Directory
  • Election Dissection
  • Fact Check
  • Glossary
  • Independent Voter News
  • News
  • Analysis
  • Subscriptions
  • Log in
Leveraging Our Differences
  • news & opinion
    • Big Picture
      • Civic Ed
      • Ethics
      • Leadership
      • Leveraging big ideas
      • Media
    • Business & Democracy
      • Corporate Responsibility
      • Impact Investment
      • Innovation & Incubation
      • Small Businesses
      • Stakeholder Capitalism
    • Elections
      • Campaign Finance
      • Independent Voter News
      • Redistricting
      • Voting
    • Government
      • Balance of Power
      • Budgeting
      • Congress
      • Judicial
      • Local
      • State
      • White House
    • Justice
      • Accountability
      • Anti-corruption
      • Budget equity
    • Columns
      • Beyond Right and Left
      • Civic Soul
      • Congress at a Crossroads
      • Cross-Partisan Visions
      • Democracy Pie
      • Our Freedom
  • Pop Culture
      • American Heroes
      • Ask Joe
      • Celebrity News
      • Comedy
      • Dance, Theatre & Film
      • Diversity, Inclusion & Belonging
      • Faithful & Mindful Living
      • Music, Poetry & Arts
      • Sports
      • Technology
      • Your Take
      • American Heroes
      • Ask Joe
      • Celebrity News
      • Comedy
      • Dance, Theatre & Film
      • Diversity, Inclusion & Belonging
      • Faithful & Mindful Living
      • Music, Poetry & Arts
      • Sports
      • Technology
      • Your Take
  • events
  • About
      • Mission
      • Advisory Board
      • Staff
      • Contact Us
Sign Up
  1. Home>
  2. Congress>
  3. primary voting>

Delaying primaries is helping protect incumbents as well as voters

Robert Boatright
May 27, 2020
House candidate Morgan Harper

House candidate Morgan Harper, whose bid to oust Democratic incumbent Joyce Beatty (in glasses) faded after the Ohio primary was delayed.

Duane Prokop/Getty Images
Boatright is a political science professor at Clark University.

Nineteen states have postponed or canceled their primary elections. To many Americans, the idea that states might cancel or postpone their primaries as a response to the coronavirus pandemic may sound undemocratic.

Whenever election laws are changed, there is reason to worry one party or faction will benefit. While much of the current coverage has focused on presidential primaries, as someone who studies campaigns and elections I believe the real consequences of delayed primaries will be felt in the House and Senate.

Most states adopted the direct primary for non-presidential candidates in the early 20th century. In a direct primary, a single election is held to choose the party's nominee — unlike a presidential primary, an election to choose delegates who then choose the nominee. Today, direct primaries are referred to as "state primaries." Some are held on the same day as the presidential primary, but many are not.

Holding primaries during the early weeks of the Covid-19 outbreak would have been a problem for many reasons and — in the case of Wisconsin, which did hold its presidential primary on schedule in April — may have exposed many to the virus.

But moving state primaries later in the year may insulate congressional incumbents of both parties from challengers — and tamp down a progressive insurgency within the Democratic Party.

Sign up for The Fulcrum newsletter

There are a variety of folk theories about the effects of election timing, which may explain people's concerns about the potentially undemocratic effects of postponing primaries.

Yet states are constantly tinkering with their primary dates. During the past two decades, legislation has been introduced in 31 states to change the dates of their state primaries.

It has long been believed that later primaries — and, accordingly, shorter general election campaigns — reduce the cost of campaigning. Some say that later primaries harm nominees in the general election, because parties have less time to resolve conflicts before the general election.

Others argue that later primaries limit the "buyer's remorse" that may set in if a candidate wins the nomination but is ultimately shown to be a problematic general election candidate. And some hypothesize that voter turnout is affected by the season — voters may not be paying attention to elections in the spring, or they may travel during the summer.

There is little evidence to back these claims. Political scientist Vin Moscardelli and I recently analyzed the effect of state primary dates on competitiveness, candidate spending and voter turnout. We found no measurable evidence that changing the primary date affects competitiveness or candidate spending. We did find a slight effect on turnout: Voter turnout goes down in the summer but up again in the fall.

Yet anecdotes are often more powerful than facts. In Massachusetts, for example, it is easy to find Democrats who insist the party's frequent losses in gubernatorial races are caused by the state's September primary, which they believe creates divisions among Democrats that have helped moderate Republicans win in November.

Most theories, then, suggest there are benefits for parties, and perhaps for voters, to holding primaries later in the year.

The candidates who stand to benefit most from changing primary dates, however, may be the incumbents — regardless of party.

For congressional candidates, the biggest consequence of the pandemic is there has been very little fundraising or campaigning since March. When campaigning becomes difficult or funds become scarce, name recognition becomes more important. It will be hard for unknown candidates to generate the grassroots support or online buzz that has propelled past insurgent candidates of both parties. Incumbents rarely lose their primaries, and this year they will be more secure than usual.

This is a particular issue for the left wing of the Democratic Party. Some national progressive organizations have sought to capitalize on the success of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York and Ayanna Pressley of Massachusetts, who successfully challenged older, more conventional incumbent House Democrats in 2018. These groups will be boosting primary challengers to some mainstream Democrats in House races again this year, and in some state legislative races as well.

These efforts will be complicated by the new obstacles to grassroots organizing and fundraising. It's hard to raise money or knock on doors during a pandemic, and it's harder still if the campaign season unexpectedly grows a month or two longer than you had anticipated.

Last month's Democratic primary in Ohio's 3rd District — a majority-minority House district centered in Columbus — may be the clearest example. There, incumbent Joyce Beatty was facing a strong challenge from community activist Morgan Harper. But Harper's fundraising and spending were based on the expectation the primary would happen on March 17. When it was moved to April 28, Harper found it difficult to maintain momentum. She ended up with just 32 percent of the vote.

It is impossible to know whether the election would have gone differently had it been in March, but the size of her loss surprised many observers.

Several other candidates are in a similar position. Among states that moved their primaries, Pennsylvania has potentially competitive challenges to incumbent legislators in both the GOP and Democratic parties, two House Democrats face potentially competitive Democratic primaries in New Jersey and Indiana has a competitive Democratic primary for an open House seat.

The insurgent candidates in these races will have more time to retool their campaigns than Harper did, but it is hard to see how non-incumbents will be able to run campaigns remotely like what they had planned.

We will never know what the 2020 primaries would have been like without the pandemic, and there are many good reasons for states to move their elections. Whatever the merits of making elections later, and safer, these changes will have lasting political consequences.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Click here to read the original article.

The Conversation

From Your Site Articles
  • How term limits enrich democracy - The Fulcrum ›
Related Articles Around the Web
  • Here is why incumbents in Congress are hard to beat ›
  • The Incumbency Advantage in U.S. Elections: An Analysis of State ... ›
  • Shifts in Incumbency Advantage in the US House - FairVote ›
  • Why It's Good To Be The Incumbent : It's All Politics : NPR ›
primary voting

Want to write
for The Fulcrum?

If you have something to say about ways to protect or repair our American democracy, we want to hear from you.

Submit
Get some Leverage Sign up for The Fulcrum Newsletter
Confirm that you are not a bot.
×
Follow
Contributors

Why does a man wearing earrings drive Christians crazy?

Paul Swearengin

DeSantis' sitcom world

Lawrence Goldstone

Hypocrisy of pro-lifers being anti-LGBTQIA

Steve Corbin

A dangerous loss of trust

William Natbony

Shifting the narrative on homelessness in America

David L. Nevins

Reform in 2023: Leadership worth celebrating

Layla Zaidane
latest News

How America gets to a new center

Dave Anderson
12h

Why are we building a new party in California?

Lucie Repova
12h

Ask Joe: Two sides of a story

Joe Weston
02 June

Podcast: Saving democracy from & with AI

Our Staff
01 June

Default? Financial crisis? Political theater?

David Butler
01 June

Three practical presidential pledges to promote national prosperity

James-Christian B. Blockwood
31 May
Videos

Video: Daughters and Sons

David L. Nevins

Video: Why music? Why now?

David L. Nevins

Video: Honoring Memorial Day

Our Staff

Video: #ListenFirst Friday YOUnify & CPL

Our Staff

Video: What is the toll of racial violence on Black lives?

Our Staff

Video: What's next for migrants seeking asylum after Title 42

Our Staff
Podcasts

Podcast: Saving democracy from & with AI

Our Staff
01 June

Podcast: AI revolution: Disaster or great leap forward?

Our Staff
25 May

Podcast: Can we fix America's financial crises?

Our Staff
23 May

Podcast: Gen Z's fight for democracy

Our Staff
22 May
Recommended
Video: Daughters and Sons

Video: Daughters and Sons

Big Picture
How America gets to a new center

How America gets to a new center

Elections
Why are we building a new party in California?

Why are we building a new party in California?

Voting
Why does a man wearing earrings drive Christians crazy?

Why does a man wearing earrings drive Christians crazy?

Diversity Inclusion and Belonging
DeSantis' sitcom world

DeSantis' sitcom world

Opinion
Ask Joe: Two sides of a story

Ask Joe: Two sides of a story

Pop Culture