Whatever happens Nov. 5, democracy will remain in deep trouble

Sarat is the William Nelson Cromwell professor of jurisprudence and political science at Amherst College.

Sunday brought more bad news for and about American democracy. In the latest New York Times/Siena College poll, only 49 percent of respondents said American democracy does a good job representing ordinary people. Hardly a ringing endorsement of our form of government.

In that same poll, “three quarters of voters in the United States say democracy is under threat.”

And it is no wonder that confidence in democracy is down and concern is up.  This is because, in the run-up to the Nov. 5 presidential election, partisans on both parties are doubling down on accusations that the result will seal the fate of American democracy.

Throughout his campaign, former President Donald Trump has regularly called his opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, a fascist. And when he is not calling her that, he accuses her of being a Marxist or a communist. He has little evidence to back up his claims. But that has not stopped him from making them.

On the other side, following an interview last week in which John Kelly, Trump’s White House chief of staff, labeled his former boss a fascist, Harris agreed. When asked by CNN’s Anderson Cooper "Do you think Donald Trump is a fascist?" she replied, "Yes, I do. Yes, I do. And I also believe that the people who know him best on this subject should be trusted.”

Fascism, as The Associated Press notes, is “An authoritarian, ultranationalist political ideology and movement. It is often associated with the far right and characterized by a dictatorial leader who uses military forces to help suppress political and civil opposition. History’s two most famous fascists were Nazi chief Adolf Hitler in Germany and Italian dictator Benito Mussolini.”

Forty-nine percent of the American people now think Trump is a fascist. That includes 90 percent of Democrats. On the other hand, 22 percent of the public say that Harris is a fascist, including 40 percent of self-identified Republicans.

That members of both political parties now use that label to describe their opponents is unprecedented in this country’s history. It signals that both sides see the other as posing an existential threat to democracy and the American way of life.

That will not end when all the ballots are in and all the votes are counted. Democracy has sustained considerable damage in the 2024 campaign. When it is over, the election will have left this country more divided than ever, and our democracy severely weakened.

The hard work of repairing democracy will have to be done no matter who wins. That work will need to be done by organizations and civic groups across the nation and by members of both parties. They will need to invest time and resources on the same scale that was required to put a man on the moon.

Only then will we have a chance to address growing public dissatisfaction with democracy and its root causes.

Signs of that dissatisfaction are everywhere and have been registered in a number of public opinion surveys over several years. For example, surveys taken last year showed that three-fourths of Americans already believed that “the future of American democracy is at risk in the 2024 presidential election.” Things have only gotten worse since then.

A YouGov poll released just last week registers Americans’ deep pessimism about the future of our democracy, with 75 percent of respondents saying they are “scared about the way things are going in the world today.” That fear was reflected in what they said about democracy’s future.

Forty-four percent of respondents “thought that it was likely that America wouldn’t be a democracy in 10 years’ time.” Twenty-two percent predicted this country would become a communist dictatorship; around the same number see fascism in our future.

And, if that was not bad enough, 35 percent think we are on the way toward a “civil war between Democrats and Republicans.”

Young people are particularly worried. A national survey of 18-29 year olds taken in 2023 found that two-thirds of them “have more fear than hope about the future of democracy in America.” Another survey, taken last month, suggests that figure is now 83 percent.

Not surprisingly, young Democrats and young Republicans identify different causes for democracy’s problems. Democrats tend to blame Trump or point to factors like structural racism as endangering our form of government. Republicans point to the media and political correctness as the cause of that danger.

Even more worrisome, as the Times/Siena College poll found, is the fact that substantial numbers of Americans are deeply dissatisfied with the way democracy is now functioning in this country. That dissatisfaction seems to be growing year by year.

Forty years ago, 60 percent of Americans were satisfied with our democracy. Now that number is just 28 percent.

A decade ago, Americans were “disillusioned with the way democracy was working, perhaps due to continued gridlock in Washington amid growing budget deficits, ongoing gun violence, racial tensions and illegal immigration.” Today the causes of dissatisfaction have proliferated.

They include “economic unease amid higher prices, disapproval of the jobs President, Congress and the Supreme Court are doing, increasing hostility between the political parties, former President Donald Trump’s persistent political strength, and concerns about election security, voting rights and the independence of the courts and the justice system.”

Seventy-two percent of Americans now think that “democracy in the U.S. used to be a good example” of what a democracy should be, but “has not been in recent years.”

Political scientists Christopher Claassen and Pedro Magalhães offer a more troubling analysis.

“The commitment of the people of the United States to a democratic system, long taken for granted, is now in doubt. A growing body of research,” they say, “has demonstrated their shaky support for democracy.”

They claim that “Americans’ commitment to democracy even in the abstract is … in decline” and “alternatives have become more acceptable.’”

Another study found a dramatic decline in the percentage of people who say it is “essential” to live in a democracy. This is especially apparent among younger people.

As I observed in 2017, 72 percent of Americans born before World War II say democracy is essential. About 30 percent of people before in the 1980s and after hold a similar view.

That disaffection and the public’s broader dissatisfaction with democracy will not be easily resolved. Whatever happens next month, we will need a massive investment in rebuilding our democratic infrastructure.

Schools, civic groups and the media will need to do the work of explaining what democracy entails and why it is desirable. But more than public education will be needed. We will also need to address the massive inequities that now characterize life in this country.

If we do not, democracy’s future will indeed be bleak.

Voters who care about that future need to consider the stances the presidential candidates have taken on defending and protecting our democracy when they cast their ballots.