What will Taylor Swift's endorsement of Kamala Harris mean?

Nevins is co-publisher of The Fulcrum and co-founder and board chairman of the Bridge Alliance Education Fund.

On Sep 11, we reported in The Fulcrum thatTaylor Swift had entered the political fray by endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris for president of the United States. I ended the article by stating that “the full extent of her impact remains to be seen.”

Now only a few days later, some data is already suggesting the impact could be significant. The day after Swift endorsed Harris there was a significant surge of visitors to Vote.gov, the U.S. government website that helps citizens understand how they can register to vote. According to a spokesperson for the Government Services Administration, Swift’s endorsement on Instagram led directly to 337,826 people visiting the site.

Of course the question of how many of them will follow through and actually vote and the bigger questions of who they will vote for need to be answered before the full impact of her endorsement is known.

Prodege, a provider of consumer insights to Fortune 500 brands, surveyed 500 Swifties on Aug 23-24 in an effort to determine how a Swift endorsement of a presidential candidate might affect the election.

The results include:

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• While Swift’s fans are passionate, they’re not necessarily planning on following her lead at the polls. A whopping 95 percent of respondents said they wouldn’t change their vote based on a Swift endorsement.
• Swifties are ready to make their voices heard: 85 percent said they are "very likely" to vote.
• But while Harris maintains the support of a majority of Swifties polled (52 percent), support for former President Donald Trump is stronger than some may think (34 percent.) And 14 percent of those surveyed are undecided or fit into another category.

Swift’s fan base also expressed strong opinions on key issues:

• Unsurprisingly, 65 percent of Swifties affirmed that women have the right to access abortion services, underscoring Swift’s support for reproductive rights.
• But the economy and inflation were ranked as the most important issue by a margin of more than 4-to-1 over female reproductive rights.
• Another result that may surprise many pundits was the majority stance on immigration, with 53 percent saying those who enter the U.S. outside of official channels should be detained and screened and 41 percent calling for immediate deportation of those caught crossing illegally.

It is clear that the greatest impact will be on voters under the age of 35, the largest part of her fan base. According to a 2023 Morning Consult poll, Swift’s most avid fans already identify as Democrats and the remainder split between Republicans and independents. Whether her endorsement will influence the vote of the half who are Republicans or independents is a critical component in determining the impact of her endorsement.

And perhaps most importantly, will Taylor Swift follow up to her post-debate endorsement with other announcements or even appearances with Vice President Harris?

In October 2020Jon Bon Jovi showed up at a campaign event in Luzerne County, Pa., where he played “Who Says You Can’t Go Home?,” “Livin’ on a Prayer” and t“Do What You Can” on an acoustic guitar.

That same year, rock star Bruce Springsteen added his voice by allowing the use of one of his songs in a campaign ad for Joe Biden as a way of amplifying his support for the Democrat. That ad ran just three days before the 2020 election. Earlier that summer Springsteen gave the Biden campaign permission to use his song "The Rising" as background music to a video shown at the opening of the Democratic National Convention.

Swift is from West Reading, Pa., which is particularly significant. Pennsylvania is generally considered the most important swing state of them all, with 19 electoral votes, and Biden won by only 80,000 votes in 2020 out of a total of about 6.8 million. A concert in Pennsylvania before November could certainly impact the results.

Thursday night, at MTV’s Video Music Awards, Swift repeated her call for people to register to vote but did not mention her endorsement of Harris. If Taylor Swift takes additional steps beyond her initial endorsement she very

well might be the biggest celebrity influencer of them all.