Skip to content
Search

Latest Stories

Top Stories

The biggest threat to 2021 elections: conflating election rigging with election vulnerabilities

Virginians in line to vote early

Voters line up to cast early ballots in Virginia.

Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
Levine is an elections integrity fellow at the Alliance for Securing Democracy, which seeks to counter Russian efforts to undermine U.S. and European democratic institutions.

While cable news and statehouses are focused on the "big lie" following the 2020 presidential election, a more insidious (and immediate) threat awaits the jurisdictions conducting elections this week: the weaponization of real vulnerabilities in election systems to falsely cast doubt on the integrity of elections overall.

One of the most surprising takeaways from the unsuccessful challenges to the 2020 election results is the level of support they've garnered despite being largely evidence-free. Almost no legal challenges to the presidential election were successful, the difference in vote totals (both actual and electoral) between the two major presidential election candidates was not small, and nearly every voter cast a paper ballot that could be subsequently reviewed.

Consider what could have happened if the challenges to the legitimacy of 2020 had either kernels of truth and/or were associated with a particularly close race? We have no way of knowing for certain, but it's not a stretch to think that our already precarious democracy would be in even more dire straits.

That question may not be so speculative next week, as demonstrated by Virginia's neck-and-neck gubernatorial contest. Putting aside the campaign rhetoric stoking the election conspiracy fire, Virginia's election processes are not perfect. For example, Virginia audits elections every year, but only after the certification of election results. That is important but less than ideal because it means that potentially erroneous election results cannot be changed. Moreover, the post-election audit does not cover the entire state — localities are chosen at random after the election — so it's possible that a problem somewhere in the state would not be identified in the audit.

Sign up for The Fulcrum newsletter

Along with Virginia, New Jersey also has a race for governor and an imperfect election system. Absent extraordinary circumstances, like a pandemic, New Jersey remains one of only a handful of states that rely heavily on direct recording electronic (DREs) machines that do not print a paper trail backup. DREs are more susceptible to counting errors and malicious attacks than paper-based voting systems, and their use also raises another mis- and disinformation concern: Conspiracy theorists hell bent on further undermining U.S. democracy can more easily manipulate any minor change or error during a vote count, giving false claims of rigging and hacking more traction.

While important to note, such vulnerabilities do not mean that the 2021 New Jersey and Virginia elections are likely to be compromised. Every state's election systems can be strengthened, but that's a far cry from having vulnerabilities that are exploited at such a scale to alter the outcome of an election.

Anyone who asserts that a U.S. election is illegitimate is making an extraordinary claim that needs to be supported by compelling and verifiable evidence. Simply noting the existence of a vulnerability does not mean it has been or will be exploited, let alone that it altered an outcome (though reporting them in a responsible, timely manner to those who work on the fronts lines of our elections can help bolster the security of elections against malign actors).

All states, including Virginia and New Jersey, have election security practices and mechanisms designed to increase confidence in election outcomes. Virginia has all paper ballots and post-election risk-limiting audits to validate its results, and there have not been any issues with the audits since the law mandating them was adopted in 2018. And while most New Jersey counties still use paperless voting on Election Day, the state has put in place a variety of measures to mitigate the accompanying risks, including cybersecurity, physical security, training, updated voting equipment and auditing. Additionally, New Jersey now offers nine days of early voting on paper-based systems and over 900,000 voters signed up to receive their ballots by mail.

It should not come as a shock if bad-faith actors try to exploit vulnerabilities in our election systems in an effort to undermine voter confidence. What would come as a shock is if such efforts succeed in altering the results of an election. I wouldn't bet on it, but this is not a time for complacency.

Voters should be confident in the integrity of their election(s) and if they have questions about their election processes, they should turn to trusted sources of information, such as state and local election officials, who have a proven track record of putting the conduct of free and fair elections before any personal interests. Trust but verify.

Read More

Defining the Democracy Movement: Karissa Raskin
- YouTube

Defining the Democracy Movement: Karissa Raskin

The Fulcrum presents The Path Forward: Defining the Democracy Reform Movement. Scott Warren's interview series engages diverse thought leaders to elevate the conversation about building a thriving and healthy democratic republic that fulfills its potential as a national social and political game-changer. This initiative is the start of focused collaborations and dialogue led by The Bridge Alliance and The Fulcrum teams to help the movement find a path forward.

Karissa Raskin is the new CEO of the Listen First Project, a coalition of over 500 nationwide organizations dedicated to bridging differences. The coalition aims to increase social cohesion across American society and serves as a way for bridging organizations to compare notes, share resources, and collaborate broadly. Karissa, who is based in Jacksonville, served as the Director of Coalition Engagement for a number of years before assuming the CEO role this February.

Keep ReadingShow less
Business professional watching stocks go down.
Getty Images, Bartolome Ozonas

The White House Is Booming, the Boardroom Is Panicking

The Confidence Collapse

Consumer confidence is plummeting—and that was before the latest Wall Street selloffs.

Keep ReadingShow less
Drain—More Than Fight—Authoritarianism and Censorship
Getty Images, Mykyta Ivanov

Drain—More Than Fight—Authoritarianism and Censorship

The current approaches to proactively counteracting authoritarianism and censorship fall into two main categories, which we call “fighting” and “Constitution-defending.” While Constitution-defending in particular has some value, this article advocates for a third major method: draining interest in authoritarianism and censorship.

“Draining” refers to sapping interest in these extreme possibilities of authoritarianism and censorship. In practical terms, it comes from reducing an overblown sense of threat of fellow Americans across the political spectrum. When there is less to fear about each other, there is less desire for authoritarianism or censorship.

Keep ReadingShow less
"Vote" pin.
Getty Images, William Whitehurst

Most Americans’ Votes Don’t Matter in Deciding Elections

New research from the Unite America Institute confirms a stark reality: Most ballots cast in American elections don’t matter in deciding the outcome. In 2024, just 14% of eligible voters cast a meaningful vote that actually influenced the outcome of a U.S. House race. For state house races, on average across all 50 states, just 13% cast meaningful votes.

“Too many Americans have no real say in their democracy,” said Unite America Executive Director Nick Troiano. “Every voter deserves a ballot that not only counts, but that truly matters. We should demand better than ‘elections in name only.’”

Keep ReadingShow less