The Democrats have a problem…I realize this isn’t a revelation, but I believe they’re boxed into a corner with limited options to regain their footing. Don’t get me wrong, the party could have a big win in the 2026 midterms with a backlash building against Trump and MAGA. In some scenarios, that could also lead to taking back the White House in 2028…but therein lies the problem.
In its second term, the Trump administration has severely cut government agencies, expanded the power of the Executive branch, enacted policies that will bloat the federal deficit, dismantled parts of the social safety net, weakened our standing in the world, and moved the US closer to a “pay for play” transactional philosophy of operating government that’s usually reserved for Third World countries. America has veered away from being the model emulated by other nations that aim to build a stable democracy.
Whichever party takes the White House in 2028, there will be a need for spending and taxes to rebuild essential government functions, to re-establish critical research initiatives, to restore staffing levels at agencies like the IRS, NOAA, EPA, CFPB, USAID, and others to enable them to operate as chartered by Congress. Rebuilding takes time. In fact, it takes a lot longer to rebuild than to dismantle. This process will require patience to have a discernible effect, and the American public has often demonstrated that it doesn’t have a tolerance for that. So, if it plays out that a Democrat wins the White House in 2028, the party will need to figure out how to communicate where we are as a nation, what’s important to rebuild the foundation that has guided us for 250 years, what to expect along the way, and why we all must have patience as we go through the process.
While execution will be important, success at winning the hearts and minds of the American people will boil down to communication. The Democrats have had a communication problem for decades. Republicans have proven far more effective than Democrats at delivering unified, consistent messaging across their party. For example, Biden does things post-pandemic to move the country forward and is blamed for inflation; Trump does things in his second term that are inflationary, and his supporters accept that there will be a period of “disruption” that may (or may not) lead to a long-term benefit. There are many examples, but suffice it to say that the Democrats have struggled to get their message out in a consistent fashion for a long time.
Now, fast-forward to 2028…Assuming there will ultimately be a broad backlash to the Trump presidency and that a Democrat is elected to the White House in 2028, they will be faced with a federal workforce that has been decimated. There will be a need to rebuild some functions, and that will come with a cost…which feeds into the timeworn mantra that Democrats want to tax-and-spend while Republicans are fiscally responsible.
The challenge is that you can’t simply switch on and off initiatives like biotech research and international development. These types of things are being set back decades; the brain drain takes its toll.
On top of the sheer volume of agencies that would need to be rebuilt, any new administration will have difficulty attracting top talent into federal positions with the knowledge that their jobs could be eliminated at the whim of a change in future administrations. The philosophical shift operates counter to the implicit deal that was in place for decades for federal workers.
By the end of its second term, the Trump administration will have expanded the power and reach of the Executive Branch. By following the Project 2025 roadmap, and with the help of the Supreme Court, they will have advanced the “Unitary” theory of the Executive–to what extent is to be determined, but it’s already happening. Even with the anticipated backlash against Trumpism, the Democrats will be in a tough position to rebuild without reinforcing hackneyed accusations about big government and big spending. Coupled with the time that will be needed to rebuild, the end result could be a win in 2028, followed by a boomerang backlash against the Democrats, leading to a return of Republicans to the White House in 2032. To avert this, Democrats must do a better job communicating their vision and the shortcomings of the other side. That unified, cohesive messaging needs to start NOW…leading up to the midterms and continuing into the 2028 campaign. To illustrate, here are the types of foundational issues that the Democratic party will need to saturate the advertising and social media channels with:
● Essential Services: Republicans have eliminated essential services, reduced scientific research, and weakened the safety net programs that millions of people rely upon.
● Taxes: Republicans have enacted tax breaks that primarily benefit the wealthy and leave the working class behind.
● National Debt: Republicans have demonstrated fiscal irresponsibility through massive budget deficits that will be an anchor on our economic well-being in the coming decades.
● Checks-and-Balances: The current administration has taken us on a detour away from three coequal branches of government in favor of an all-powerful Executive Branch.
● International Leadership: Current policies have weakened the reputation of the US internationally and reduced our influence. We need to repair our standing as a beacon of democracy and hope throughout the world.
● Polarization: The current administration has worked to exacerbate the divisions within our people rather than celebrating the common beliefs that unite us.
The above list is not intended to be comprehensive, but is representative of the pointed, pervasive messaging that needs to be echoed up and down the Democratic party. While the foundational issues provide a North Star, the Democrats will need a clear message of what they would do in 2028 and why it’s desperately needed. They will need to run the 2028 campaign on specific issues that are both achievable and appealing to the general electorate. And if they win in 2028, they’ll need to have delivered on many of those promises to win again in 2032. Conversely, if the 2028 campaign is based on pie-in-the-sky hopes and platitudes, they will inevitably fall short and will be penalized in the long term.
The path for the Democrats to regain the trust of the American people is a difficult one. It starts with persuasive communication, in one voice, using consistent language, that emphasizes the common principles inherent in our country’s DNA. Be honest with the voters about what’s achievable and what it will take to get there. Execute the plan effectively…Rinse…Repeat.
Alan J. Simon is a technology consultant and a contributing author of “Leveraging: A Political, Economic and Societal Framework.”
