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If purple’s the color of viable democracy reform, this new roster of tossup states matters

The realists strategizing to make our democracy work better understand our nation's close but emphatic partisan divide – and that big changes to the system will require buy-in from plenty in both parties. Given that, it makes sense for avowed "democracy reformers" to keep a close eye on places where the dominant ideology is neither solidly liberal nor unalterably conservative.

Now there's a new map of those Purple States of America, and it's a little different from the usual roster of perennial presidential battlegrounds.


Editor Nathan Gonzales of Inside Elections, a nonpartisan forecaster of congressional and gubernatorial races, spent much of last year crunching the results of every statewide and House election in the country this decade. The resulting numbers reflect the share of the vote that each party can count on securing in all 50 states.

The difference between those Republican and Democratic baselines, in turn, becomes a solid reflection of the degree of statewide competitiveness. Wyoming, for example, is the darkest red state by this measure because the GOP baseline is 68 percent and the Democratic baseline just under 27 percent – a difference of 41 percentage points. All the elections between 2012 and last fall in Hawaii come in at the other extreme, yielding a 38-point advantage for the Democrats.

And then there are the 11 states where, over the course of this decade, neither party's baseline advantage has become greater than 5 points. (And in Wisconsin it's a dead heat, with each party claiming a base vote of 49 percent of the statewide electorate.)

Wisconsin: EVEN
North Carolina: R +1
Nevada: R +2
Maine: D +3
Colorado: D +3
New Hampshire: D + 3
Florida: R +4
Iowa: R +4
Michigan: D +4
Arizona: R +5
Virginia: D +5

At a time of such national polarization, the political behavior in these places suggests that cross-partisan policymaking and appeals to the ideological center just might have a shot at success.

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Similarity Hub Shows >700 Instances of Cross-Partisan Common Ground

Two coloured pencils one red and one blue drawing a reef knot on a white paper background.

Getty Images, David Malan

Similarity Hub Shows >700 Instances of Cross-Partisan Common Ground

It is a common refrain to say that Americans need to find common ground across the political spectrum.

Over the past year, AllSides and More Like US found >700 instances of common ground on political topics, revealed in Similarity Hub. It highlights public opinion data from Gallup, Pew Research, YouGov, and many other reputable polling firms.

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U.S. Refines Military Strategy in Africa As Development Programs Face Cuts

Royal Moroccan Armed Forces service members and U.S. Army Soldiers hold an African Lion banner during a Moroccan F-16 flyover at the closing day of African Lion 2025 (AL25) at Tantan, Morocco, May 23, 2025.

By Sgt. 1st Class Andrew Mallett/U.S. Army Southern European Task Force, Africa

U.S. Refines Military Strategy in Africa As Development Programs Face Cuts

WASHINGTON – Both the Trump administration and its critics agree the U.S. risks losing influence in Africa to rivals like China and Russia. But while the administration argues its commercially driven foreign policy will reverse the trend, critics warn that retreating from development and diplomacy could deepen the problem.

Under the Trump administration, the U.S. plans to consolidate embassies, scale back USAID operations, and pivot towards a security and commercial driven approach on the continent. While U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) defense officials insist their core missions within Africa will remain intact, civilian experts and lawmakers argue that abandoning diplomatic and development tools opens the door for strategic competitors to fill the void and fails to take into account what would best benefit African countries.

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