Skip to content
Search

Latest Stories

Top Stories

The next big lie: So he can quit rather than lose

The next big lie: So he can quit rather than lose
Getty Images

LaRue writes at Structure Matters. He is former deputy director of the Eisenhower Institute and of the American Society of International Law.

“On the advice of my doctors, their direction actually, I must withdraw as a candidate for president of the United States.”


Could Donald Trump really utter those words? As likely as not.

Consider what he knows: His odds of bucking conventional wisdom as he did in 2016 are very low. Even if he wins the Republican nomination for president next summer, his slim chances in the general election are eroding further. Such wisdom may never be tested, however, if he quits before facing a loss he cannot get close to derailing.

Trump says he will soldier on no matter what. Just a common lie, with the big one to follow. The facts – the voters have spoken against him all four times, from 2016’s three-million vote margin to 2022’s red fizzle – demolish all reasons for him to remain on the ballot until November 5, 2024.

His pending loss is even more likely, given that his culpability for his legal troubles is seriously damning and could soon include more indictments. His MAGA base is notably thinner and barely paying lip service against his arrests. Trump’s ultimate demise becomes clearer as prominent former Republican backers publicly peel away, such as Senator John Cornyn did in May.

Sign up for The Fulcrum newsletter

Trump has little choice but to bring out his exit strategy, a path he counts on having – bankruptcy, anyone? – for his every endeavor. His 2024-campaign version could have been his plan from the beginning, or it is at least contending now for his preferred course of action: Withdraw because of poor health news.

This excuse would be believable. At age 78 in January 2025, he would be as old as Joe Biden was when he entered the White House in 2021. Add Trump’s physique to any prognosis and he has plausible health reasons that could necessitate dropping out. He would blast Biden “for not withdrawing in 2020 the way he should have, as I’m doing now,” and could even blame the “witch hunt” for exacerbating his chosen illness. The Next Big Lie rests easily in his back pocket.

It may seem odd to suggest that Trump would seek to save face by faking illness, but such a lie is not out of bounds for our nation’s most treasonous grifter. Perhaps his prior claims of good health were false and his new health excuse would be both old and real. Either lie would be true to form.

When he makes this announcement is anyone’s guess. While he will walk away in a healthy or unhealthy heartbeat, he will do so when it is most advantageous to him. This timing decision is his last grasp of control.

Odds are that he stays in the race as long as possible to be in and monetize the spotlight, and perhaps even to wallow in a MAGA-led convention lovefest. These goals are narcissistic enough to have been his only ones from the start, as he could have entered the race never intending to finish it. Does anyone think Trump cares about the upheaval he would cause by dropping out just before Labor Day?

(That a convention swan song remains possible is due to the dysfunctional nominations process, which uses low-vote, multi-candidate primaries that advance first-past-the-post, plurality winners. It must be changed to reduce the risk of selecting future undemocratic outliers who cannot earn majority support.)

But Trump might depart before the primaries in order not to jeopardize his chance of earning a pardon from a Republican victor. If he waits until after the convention to depart, he does risk making it harder for his Republican successor to win, notwithstanding how he will rip into “the even older guy” on his way out.

And he could still hang on until the bitter end. But that would only give Trump two more months in the brightest spotlight, which may not be enough to accept if it also means swallowing the reality of his fifth straight loss.

So he will exit the ring rather than wait for the count.

Idle speculation? Giving him too much credit for such deliberation? Perhaps, but we have previously underestimated his willingness to go to unimagined extremes. Without the tools of incumbency, his desperation may lead him to surprise us. Anything remains possible when it comes to Trump.

If he uses the Next Big Lie to step away, we can take little comfort in knowing that he will not again be president. His closing acts will be destructive, and Trumpism and election denialism will remain, even if weakened.

Let us prepare for the reconstruction to follow; it always has, whether after the Civil War, the Gilded Age, or other polarized periods. (And let’s not forget the Electoral College’s role in putting him in the White House to begin with – a second core problem to fix.)

Read More

Historic Bipartisan Reform Passed Into Law

A voter receiving information.

Getty Images, SeventyFour

Historic Bipartisan Reform Passed Into Law

On April 8, 2025, New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham signed SB 16 into law, a historic bipartisan reform that gives more than 330,000 independent voters—who make up nearly 25% of New Mexico’s electorate—the right to vote in the state’s primary elections, starting in 2026. This continues an overall nationwide trend of states opening their primary elections to more voters.

“New Mexico’s open primaries law will ensure that every eligible voter has a say in every taxpayer-funded election, not just those who choose to affiliate with a party,” said Nick Troiano, Executive Director of Unite America. “For too long, a quarter of New Mexicans have been locked out of their state’s primary elections—which in most cases are the only elections that matter. Ending closed primaries is an important step toward increasing participation and representation in our democracy.”

Keep ReadingShow less
Beginning To Explore the Pro-Democracy Arena
a large white building with a flag on top of it

Beginning To Explore the Pro-Democracy Arena

The Fulcrum presents The Path Forward: Defining the Democracy Reform Movement. Scott Warren's interview series engaging diverse thought leaders to elevate the conversation about building a thriving and healthy democratic republic that fulfills its potential as a national social and political game-changer. This series is the start of focused collaborations and dialogue led by The Bridge Alliance and The Fulcrum teams to help the movement find a path forward.

Over the last two months, I’ve been privileged to speak with a diversity of stakeholders who work within the pro-democracy ecosystem. These leaders are focused on improving the democratic fabric of this country through tackling issues like structural reform, bridge building, organizing the ecosystem, and place-based work. I’ll continue this series with the Fulcrum over the next few months, and welcome your feedback (and additional potential individuals to interview).

Keep ReadingShow less
The FEC Has Opened the Floodgates for Big Money To Flood Elections. Here’s How We Can Fix It.

A miniature White House on top of coins and bills.

Getty Images, Max Zolotukhin

The FEC Has Opened the Floodgates for Big Money To Flood Elections. Here’s How We Can Fix It.

Elections are getting bigger.

2024 was a blockbuster year in campaign spending, shattering the previous record—set just four years prior—as donors across the nation and the economic spectrum swooped in to pull control of every branch of government their way.

Keep ReadingShow less