In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Galen Druke and Nate Silver open up the mailbag and answer listener questions about politics and polling. They cover American skepticism of artificial intelligence — according to one poll, only 9 percent of Americans say it will do more good than harm to society — and consider what to make of former president Donald Trump’s gains on Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in early Republican presidential primary polling.
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Stop Fighting, Start Fixing: This Is How We Rebuild Democracy
Feb 07, 2026
Twenty-five years ago, a political scientist noticed something changing in American bowling alleys and predicted something close to our current fraught and polarized moment.
In his best-selling book Bowling Alone, Robert Putnam documented how Americans were no longer connecting with each other in common places or in pursuit of common aims. Instead of bowling on a team, we did so in isolation. Putnam warned that a likely consequence of this growing isolation and withdrawal from genuine ties with neighbors would be a rise in undemocratic, and even authoritarian, politics.
Our nation’s problems, of course, are far more serious than the decline of bowling teams, or coffee shops in which everyone wears headphones and stares into a phone. Yet when we stop talking to one another in routine social settings, it’s easy to lose trust in our fellow citizens and faith in our common institutions – especially when we live in news bubbles designed to generate outrage rather than informed citizens.
With our divisions escalating into tragedy in Minneapolis and elsewhere, it’s time to remind each other that our constitutional self‑government is tied to a shared duty to secure one another’s rights and to respect one another. This is especially important where disagreements run deepest. The social contract binding our country is not the domination of some people by others. It is a mutual pledge that each of us will help guarantee what all of us retain – that my freedom is bound up with yours. That my disrespect of your rights and dignity imperils my own.
We're living through a test of that proposition. Our constitutional system has weathered civil war and economic collapse, but it's straining under the erosion of civic culture and democratic responsibility that makes self-government possible. The Constitution distributes power, protects rights, establishes procedures. But it can't make us care whether our neighbor can freely exercise the right to vote, or compel us to recognize the dignity of someone who voted differently. Those obligations belong to us.
The framers designed a republic that would channel faction and ambition into productive tension. But the machinery only works if we accept the legitimacy of the process and the rights and dignity of everyone. When we view fellow citizens as enemies to be vanquished, the constitutional order begins to buckle. When our elected leaders stop serving the interests of the general public in favor of a partisan few, our democracy becomes unproductive and, at times, counterproductive to voters.
When this moment subsides, and Americans turn their attention to repairing what has been broken, we will need much more than bowling teams. We will need a renewal of civic responsibility and practices in which we reach out to others – including those different from ourselves, but equally worthy of respect. Some have turned toward this work: The Disagree Better Initiative, for example, seeks to channel controversial topics into real conversation. Other groups have sought to bring red and blue America together. A new documentary based on Putnam’s work, “Join Or Die,” puts our choice in stark relief.
We will also need an electoral system that encourages us to talk to one another again. Today’s politicians, safe in their gerrymandered districts, chosen largely in closed, plurality primaries with a small percentage of the vote, have no reason to talk – or listen – to anyone beyond their partisan base. They have every reason to ignore or antagonize everyone else. That’s no way to choose our leaders. And to no surprise, it hasn’t resulted in progress or leadership, let alone problem-solving.
We have options. Ranked choice voting, which requires a candidate to earn over 50% of the vote to win, empowers voters to express their full range of preferences. It rewards candidates who can appeal to voters beyond a narrow partisan base, and incentivizes leaders to deliver for a majority of their voters rather than be beholden to that base. A more proportional U.S. House would end gerrymandering and encourage coalition-building among elected leaders.
These reforms won’t solve everything that ails us. But systems shape behavior, and our current system disempowers voters and is shaped for combat. If we're serious about renewing our commitment to constitutional government in our 250th year, we need not all become bowlers. (Though we should take off the headphones more often.)
But we should commit to speaking to one another – and to a politics where mutual respect and responsibility are an advantage rather than a weakness.
Meredith Sumpter is the president and CEO of FairVote, a nonpartisan organization seeking better elections.
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do not cross police barricade tape close-up photography
Photo by David von Diemar on Unsplash
2025 Crime Rates Plunge Nationwide as Homicides Hit Historic Lows
Feb 07, 2026
Crime rates continued to fall in 2025, with homicides down 21% from 2024 and 44% since a recent peak in 2021, likely bringing the national homicide rate to its lowest level in more than a century, according to a recent Council on Criminal Justice analysis of crime trends in 40 large U.S. cities.
The study examined patterns for 13 crime types in cities that have consistently published monthly data over the past eight years, analyzing violent crime, property crime, and drug offenses with data through December 2025.
The report found:
- Reported levels of 11 of 13 offenses were lower in 2025 than in 2024, with nine offenses declining 10% or more. Drug offenses were the only category that rose during this period, while sexual assault remained even.
- Looking at trends over a longer period, only reported motor vehicle theft and non-residential burglary remained elevated compared with 2019 levels, before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and nationwide social justice protests of 2020.
- Two crimes that captured significant public attention during the pandemic era—carjacking and shoplifting—have receded from their peaks. Reported carjacking has declined 61% since 2023, while reported shoplifting is down 10% from 2024.
When nationwide data for jurisdictions of all sizes is reported by the FBI later this year, there is a strong possibility that homicide in 2025 will drop to about 4.0 per 100,000 residents. That would be the lowest rate recorded in law enforcement or public health data going back to 1900—and would mark the largest single-year percentage drop in the homicide rate on record.
While the downward trajectory of crime is clear, it’s extremely difficult to disentangle and pinpoint what’s actually driving the drop, said CCJ President and CEO Adam Gelb. “As a result, we have a battle of sound bites and abundant claims of credit but scarce evidence to back them up.”
To help inform this debate, the Council released a supplemental assessment featuring perspectives from leading experts on the primary drivers of the recent decline, specifically in homicides. Last week, CCJ also held a webinar with several of these experts to dive in further.
Here’s what they emphasized.
- No Single Cause. Researchers and practitioners broadly agreed there’s no single explanation for the decline. Instead, it reflects multiple forces moving in the same direction, from prevention efforts and law enforcement strategies to broader social changes following the pandemic shock.
- Community investment and prevention. Several experts pointed to increased investment in violence intervention and prevention programs that engage at-risk groups, as well as federal funding that helped stabilize local governments and bolster police forces during a period of extreme disruption.
- Changes in criminal justice practice. Many cities sharpened their focus on the small number of neighborhoods and repeat offenders driving violence, improved shooting investigations and clearance rates, and worked through court backlogs that built up during the pandemic.
- Broader social and behavioral trends. As the pandemic disruptions faded, daily routines normalized. More people returned to work, school, and public spaces, increasing "eyes on the street" and reducing opportunities for violence to escalate unchecked.
Now the question on everyone’s mind is what comes next. Will crime rates continue to fall in 2026? Some of the experts CCJ spoke with expect further declines, while others warn that the end of federal funding could slow progress.
The administration’s immigration enforcement operations are a big unknown. It could deter crime, but it could also erode trust in police, making it harder to work with communities to reduce violence.
The Council on Criminal Justice will continue to monitor these crime trends in American cities, so that these critical debates are grounded in facts and evidence, not partisan soundbites.
Ernesto Lopez is a senior research specialist at the Council on Criminal Justice.
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Politicians Need Yoga to Enhance Their Leadership Skills
Feb 07, 2026
Yoga’s potential in American politics is undervalued, despite its deep presence in popular culture—from wellness trends to the Avatar movie universe.
In the current third Avatar movie, people peacefully gathered to meditate under a Spirit Tree. This new movie continues to demonstrate how peaceful yoga principles build community.
Zohran Mamdani, New York City’s new mayor, grew up practicing yoga. Mamdani successfully brings people from diverse cultures and viewpoints together. Mamdani is using yoga-type principles of unity and peace to elevate politics.
Yoga literally means union. Practicing yoga can help leaders create a democratic union, improve mental clarity, and cultivate peace.
I personally practiced yoga with my father, Kunwar Rajendra, who learned yoga in India before coming to America. He taught yoga for decades before meditation became mainstream. I experienced firsthand yoga’s capacity for improving connection, clarity, and problem-solving, and eventually became certified to teach. I continue to incorporate these wellness principles in my work and personal life.
Yoga is a collection of powerful holistic practices—movement, breathwork, meditation, and intention—that awakens strength and positivity in people. Yet yoga remains under-recognized as a tool for political leaders to use to strengthen democracy.
American democracy stands for union. Union strengthens individual parts and brings them all together.
The principles of the democratic union guided the Founding Fathers in transforming the scattered United Colonies into the United States.
President Lincoln understood that the Union was more than a territorial merging; it was an ethical ideal, clearing a path for all.
Imagine politics guided by reduced ego and focused listening. Leaders could debate without dehumanizing each other. Legislating would be a united, peaceful responsibility, without bickering, shouting, and hatred.
Besides improving democratic union, research shows that yoga also improves mental clarity.
Mindfulness means being consciously present. Harvard Health reports on the positive effects of mindfulness. Being mindful embodies the principles of yoga by improving attention, memory, and emotional regulation.
A 2025 study reported that introducing mindfulness techniques in high-stakes work environments enabled people to reverse bad decisions. These techniques incorporated yoga skills of yielding and grounding through meditation. These essential leadership skills can help politicians develop mental discipline.
Some leaders knew that yoga principles were the moral engines powering their movements. Martin Luther King Jr. drew inspiration from Mahatma Gandhi’s application of yogic principles of nonviolence and truth, which became the civil rights movement.
Yoga offers a non-combative solution to transform polarized division into peaceful dialogue.
Mainstream America is beginning to recognize the benefits of yoga. Over 38 million Americans practiced yoga in 2022, yet politicians still ignore these tools of mindfulness and conscious presence.
The current upheaval in American politics isn’t isolated fringe behavior; it’s a distress signal from a country trying to regain its balance.
Leaders can better serve their constituents by improving their mental clarity and enacting legislation peacefully.
To some, yoga sounds like a luxury amid moral, political, and environmental crises. However, the roots of yoga trace back to ancient philosophies such as Hinduism and Christianity, which are founded on shared human values, needs, and a peaceful presence.
Yoga is increasingly integrated into American life in many ways. Yoga studios teach asanas, which are movements that help people reconnect with their bodies and awareness. Smartphone users download mindfulness apps to cultivate awareness. Michigan’s former national-championship quarterback, JJ McCarthy, meditated mid-field before games to sharpen his focus under pressure.
Performance at the highest level requires a calm mind. Researchers found that one session of structured breathwork can improve mental control.
In fast-paced politics, leaders with inner steadiness can respond with wisdom rather than relying solely on reflex. A 2025 study from the National Library of Medicine confirms why breath-focused meditation works. Meditation activates the prefrontal cortex, the highly developed part of the brain, and calms the nervous system.
Here are some ways everyone can bring yoga into their lives. Citizens can establish a yoga fund for mindfulness training. Political teams can incorporate yoga into events and workshops. Parents and students can invite teachers to team development and community meetings.
Democracy awakens where shared purpose is present.
In a mindful future, Congress could begin each session with a moment of silence. Politicians would be better prepared to collaborate on the future of 343 million Americans.
Yoga won’t single-handedly repair democracy, but it can illuminate people and elevate America’s life force.
Anuja Rajendra has been a fellow with the Michigan Political Leadership Program, a Michigan State Senate candidate, and a TEDx speaker. Anuja received a Congressional Award for advancing health and wellness and helped with training the U.S. Olympic Ice Dancing Team.
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Eric Trump, the newly appointed ALT5 board director of World Liberty Financial, walks outside of the NASDAQ in Times Square as they mark the $1.5- billion partnership between World Liberty Financial and ALT5 Sigma with the ringing of the NASDAQ opening bell, on Aug. 13, 2025, in New York City.
Why does the Trump family always get a pass?
Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche joined ABC’s “This Week” on Sunday to defend or explain a lot of controversies for the Trump administration: the Epstein files release, the events in Minneapolis, etc. He was also asked about possible conflicts of interest between President Trump’s family business and his job. Specifically, Blanche was asked about a very sketchy deal Trump’s son Eric signed with the UAE’s national security adviser, Sheikh Tahnoon.
Shortly before Trump was inaugurated in early 2025, Tahnoon invested $500 million in the Trump-owned World Liberty, a then newly launched cryptocurrency outfit. A few months later, UAE was granted permission to purchase sensitive American AI chips. According to the Wall Street Journal, which broke the story, “the deal marks something unprecedented in American politics: a foreign government official taking a major ownership stake in an incoming U.S. president’s company.”
“How do you respond to those who say this is a serious conflict of interest?” ABC host George Stephanopoulos asked.
“I love it when these papers talk about something being unprecedented or never happening before,” Blanche replied, “as if the Biden family and the Biden administration didn’t do exactly the same thing, and they were just in office.”
Blanche went on to boast about how the president is utterly transparent regarding his questionable business practices: “I don’t have a comment on it beyond Trump has been completely transparent when his family travels for business reasons. They don’t do so in secret. We don’t learn about it when we find a laptop a few years later. We learn about it when it’s happening.”
Sadly, Stephanopoulos didn’t offer the obvious response, which may have gone something like this: “OK, but the president and countless leading Republicans insisted that President Biden was the head of what they dubbed ‘the Biden Crime family’ and insisted his business dealings were corrupt, and indeed that his corruption merited impeachment. So how is being ‘transparent’ about similar corruption a defense?”
Now, I should be clear that I do think the Biden family’s business dealings were corrupt, whether or not laws were broken. Others disagree. I also think Trump’s business dealings appear to be worse in many ways than even what Biden was alleged to have done. But none of that is relevant. The standard set by Trump and Republicans is the relevant political standard, and by the deputy attorney general’s own account, the Trump administration is doing “exactly the same thing,” just more openly.
Since when is being more transparent about wrongdoing a defense? Try telling a cop or judge, “Yes, I robbed that bank. I’ve been completely transparent about that. So, what’s the big deal?”
This is just a small example of the broader dysfunction in the way we talk about politics.
Americans have a special hatred for hypocrisy. I think it goes back to the founding era. As Alexis de Tocqueville observed in “Democracy In America,” the old world had a different way of dealing with the moral shortcomings of leaders. Rank had its privileges. Nobles, never mind kings, were entitled to behave in ways that were forbidden to the little people.
In America, titles of nobility were banned in the Constitution and in our democratic culture. In a society built on notions of equality (the obvious exceptions of Black people, women, Native Americans notwithstanding) no one has access to special carve-outs or exemptions as to what is right and wrong. Claiming them, particularly in secret, feels like a betrayal against the whole idea of equality.
The problem in the modern era is that elites — of all ideological stripes — have violated that bargain. The result isn’t that we’ve abandoned any notion of right and wrong. Instead, by elevating hypocrisy to the greatest of sins, we end up weaponizing the principles, using them as a cudgel against the other side but not against our own.
Pick an issue: violent rhetoric by politicians, sexual misconduct, corruption and so on. With every revelation, almost immediately the debate becomes a riot of whataboutism. Team A says that Team B has no right to criticize because they did the same thing. Team B points out that Team A has switched positions. Everyone has a point. And everyone is missing the point.
Sure, hypocrisy is a moral failing, and partisan inconsistency is an intellectual one. But neither changes the objective facts. This is something you’re supposed to learn as a child: It doesn’t matter what everyone else is doing or saying, wrong is wrong. It’s also something lawyers like Mr. Blanche are supposed to know. Telling a judge that the hypocrisy of the prosecutor — or your client’s transparency — means your client did nothing wrong would earn you nothing but a laugh.
Jonah Goldberg is editor-in-chief of The Dispatch and the host of The Remnant podcast. His Twitter handle is @JonahDispatch.