In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Galen Druke and Nate Silver open up the mailbag and answer listener questions about politics and polling. They cover American skepticism of artificial intelligence — according to one poll, only 9 percent of Americans say it will do more good than harm to society — and consider what to make of former president Donald Trump’s gains on Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in early Republican presidential primary polling.
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LGBTQ Refugees Came to America To Escape Discrimination. Now, They Live in Fear in the U.S.
Jul 10, 2025
Salvadoran refugee Alberto, who is using a pseudonym out of safety concerns, did not feel secure in his own home. Being a gay man in a country known for state-sponsored violence and community rejection meant Alberto lived his life on high alert.
His family did not accept him. He says one family member physically attacked him because of his identity. He says he has been followed, harassed, and assaulted by police, accused of crimes he didn’t commit when he was studying to become a social worker. His effort to escape the rejection in his community left him, at one point, homeless and lost in a new city.
He sought help from the LGBTQ refugee resettlement program Rainbow Railroad to find a new home in the United States, a place renowned for its progressive advancement of LGBTQ rights. He is one of thousands of LGBTQ refugees from around the world who have been forced to flee their homes due to persecution and violence because of who they are or who they love.
“It's a second chance that I think life is giving me,” said Alberto, about resettling in the U.S.
However, many of those who have relocated to the United States, like Alberto, are caught at the intensifying intersections of discrimination and criminalization of asylum seekers and LGBTQ residents here in America.
“I felt safe to live here, but I don't feel safe with this administration, because for me, being a Latino, gay, I had some concerns about the situation for my community, for myself too,” he said, who has been in the U.S. since 2023.
Around the country, masked ICE agents have been seen arresting migrants and asylum seekers who appeared for their scheduled court hearings. Even those with legal residency or those with visas have been subject to detention and arrest by federal law enforcement agents.
The Trump administration has repeatedly deemed immigrants and asylum seekers “criminals,” even those without a criminal record, who have paid taxes to the federal government and/or are seeking asylum.
ICE has reported more than 60,000 removals since the inauguration. Migrant detention camps are expanding and popping up at the behest of the Trump administration in states like Florida and Texas. ICE raids have terrorized communities across the nation.
Alberto is in the middle of his own interview process with United States Citizenship and Immigration Services, but it feels increasingly dangerous to attend even these routine check-ins: “I feel very worried, honestly, because I was watching many videos of the people who come for the appointments, and they have been arrested.”
He continued, “I did not cross the border, and I came with all documents, but nothing is secure with this administration. They can change the ideas whenever they want.”
For Alberto and others like him, this fear is compounded by the growing political and social hostility toward the LGBTQ community.
The ACLU is tracking 598 anti-LGBTQ bills across the country this year alone. GLAAD, a national LGBTQ media advocacy organization, tracked almost 1,000 anti-LGBTQ incidents in 2024, including bomb threats, acts of vandalism, assaults, and more.
Over the last year, the Rainbow Railroad received the most requests for assistance from callers in the United States, surpassing any other country.
National activist group Human Rights Campaign declared a “National State of Emergency for LGBTQ+ Americans” just last year, and created resources for those looking to move out of their state or the country.
“What we're seeing now could just be the start of the worst that is yet to come,” said Latoya Nugent, Rainbow Railroad’s Head of Engagement. “We are very fearful that in the next three and a half or four years that we may be in a world where we may not even recognize the U.S.”
The change in the dynamic was almost immediate after the inauguration. Rainbow Road’s refugee admissions programs were suspended, and similar global programs that addressed public needs connected to the LGBTQ community ground to a halt – from USAID to the U.N. LGBTI Core Group.
“The U.S. is a powerful actor in the global humanitarian protection system,” said Nugent. “It's not just what is happening in the US, but it's also the impact globally on the work that has been happening over the years.”
The new efforts by the Trump administration to turn back progress on LGBTQ and immigrant rights have increasingly exhausted and drained these already vulnerable populations fighting for their ability to stay safe and alive here in the U.S.
LGBTQ advocacy groups are preparing for the worst, as the changing legal and social U.S. landscape presents unknowns for the future of refugee resettlement and LGBTQ life in America.
“We are also seeing the community really rally around some of the most vulnerable people, including LGBTQ asylum seekers and refugees, recognizing that if we don't hold the line right now, things could become significantly worse,” said Nugent.
Still, many places in the U.S. are a beacon of hope for the queer and transgender community, especially those who hail from countries where they’d be persecuted for those identities. More than 60 countries currently criminalize the LGBTQ community. Individuals in these countries are often faced with state-sponsored violence, family violence, and societal rejection.
For Alberto, moving to Chicago has been a life-changing experience. Rainbow Railroad helped him find stability and build a support system of local connections that share in his experiences. He’s holding these positive moments close to his heart, which has helped him cope with the growing pressures of the political arena.
“For the first time in my life, I can live. I can feel, I'm feeling free to to be who I am, express my identity, who I am, and without concern over thoughts about who I am, and that's made me feel happy,” Alberto said.
Kiara Alfonseca is a reporter and producer with nearly a decade of experience reporting on the intersections of politics and identity.
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From Vision to Action: Remaking the World Through Social Entrepreneurship
Jul 10, 2025
Social entrepreneur John Marks developed a set of eleven working principles that have become his modus operandi and provide the basic framework for his new book, “From Vision to Action: Remaking the World Through Social Entrepreneurship," from which a series of three articles is adapted. While Marks applied these principles in nonprofit work, he says they are also applicable to social enterprises—and to life, in general.
PART THREE
PRINCIPLE #8: PRACTICE AIKIDO. By nature, I am an impatient person, and I yearn for rapid solutions to problems that are tearing apart the planet. When I worked in the Middle East and the Democratic Republic of Congo, I witnessed widespread violence. Still, I understood that, even though Search was a comparatively large organization, it lacked the power to reverse events, and it was usually futile to take a confrontational stance. Literally and figuratively, screaming “STOP NOW!” only made matters worse. Instead, I adopted an approach rooted in the Japanese martial art of aikido: namely, when someone is attacked, they do not try to reverse the assailant’s energy flow by 180 degrees. That is the aim in boxing, where the goal is to knock the attacker backward. In aikido, the person under attack accepts the attacker’s energy, blends with it, and diverts it by ten or twenty degrees to make both people safe. For social entrepreneurs, this means accepting a conflict or problem as it is and working with it, transforming it one step at a time. Indeed, aikido makes a virtue out of necessity because almost no one has the power to win with adversarial tactics.
PRINCIPLE #9: DEVELOP EFFECTIVE METAPHORS. For social entrepreneurs, communicating compelling ideas is crucial to reframing reality. Extended metaphors in the form of captivating stories can play a key role in breaking up—and replacing—deeply held beliefs. Metaphors—short or lengthy—can provide a picture of what might lie ahead and why it is desirable. Social entrepreneurs should be adept at what advertising executives call content marketing.
I had a grand vision of global transformation, but to have an impact at that level I had to find ways to move beyond workshops and trainings that reached only small numbers of people—not the masses. I was inspired by a statement made by A. J. Liebling, the New Yorker’s longtime press critic, who said, “Freedom of the press is guaranteed only to those who own one.” With that in mind, I started Common Ground Productions, whose core premise was that popular culture could cause enormous changes in attitudes and behaviors. So, my colleagues and I became TV producers who made dramatic TV series, reality shows, and documentaries that promoted peaceful conflict resolution across the Global South.
Our best-known series was The Team, and we produced versions in eighteen countries, comprising a total of 356 episodes. Everywhere, the plot centered on a fictional soccer or cricket team whose members reflected ethnic, religious, and/or gender diversity. The core message was that if players did not overcome their differences and cooperate, they would lose. In each location where we worked, we identified an experienced production house to serve as our co-producer, and we secured a TV network to air the series in primetime. Our proposal to prospective broadcasters was to offer a high-quality, entertaining, dramatic series at no cost.
Not every social entrepreneur needs to start a media production company, but all would be wise to develop ways to effectively communicate their core messages.
PRINCIPLE #10: DISPLAY CHUTZPAH. Social entrepreneurship is definitely not a good profession for those who are timid. Launching new initiatives and overcoming seemingly insoluble problems often requires chutzpah (a Yiddish word meaning extreme self-confidence—or nerve or gall). When bold solutions are called for, social entrepreneurs need to dial up their inner chutzpah.
Still, chutzpah should not be viewed as an unbridled quality that social entrepreneurs regularly unleash. No matter how worthy the cause, the ends do not justify the means, and it is not OK to be rude or obnoxious in the name of making the world a better place. Chutzpah needs to be tempered with discretion and wisdom. It should be a calculated response—and not one that is triggered by anger. I believe both good and bad chutzpah exist. Author Leo Rosten described the most familiar example of the bad: “Chutzpah is that quality enshrined in a man who, having killed his mother and father, throws himself on the mercy of the court as an orphan.” In contrast, good chutzpah is what the prophet Abraham demonstrated when he opposed God’s plan to destroy Sodom and Gomorrah. By standing up to God, Abraham took a grave risk to save lives – even if the people spared were evil and corrupt.
PRINCIPLE #11: CULTIVATE FINGERSPITZENGEFÜHL. Fingerspitzengefühl is a German word that means having an intuitive sense of knowing at the tip of one’s fingers. This is what one-time basketball star and later U.S. Senator Bill Bradley was referring to—albeit in a sporting context—when he said:
When you have played basketball for a while, you don’t need to look at the basket. ... You develop a sense of where you are.
However, like chutzpah, fingerspitzengefühl is not a quality that should be relied upon in all circumstances. Instead, when social entrepreneurs make decisions, they should factor in—but not be overwhelmed by—what feels right. The key to social entrepreneurship is striking a balance between instinct and intellect.
PART ONE
PART TWO
In addition to founding and heading Search for Common Ground, John Marks is a NY Times best-selling and award-winning author, who most recently started the Pro Bono Litigation Corps in partnership with Gary DiBianco under the auspices of Lawyers for Good Government.
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Alternatives to Incarceration Work—We Just Have To Invest in Them
Jul 10, 2025
The U.S. prison system faces criticism for its failure to effectively rehabilitate incarcerated individuals, contributing to high recidivism rates. While some programs exist, they are often inadequate and lack sufficient resources, with many prisoners facing dangerous conditions and barriers to successful reintegration.
Alexis Tamm investigates, in a two-part series, the problems and responses to the significant obstacles recently released individuals face.
In Part 2, Alexis explores how a program is not only personally transformative for its participants, but it has the potential to fuel revolutionary change in how the U.S. addresses recidivism and reentry.
“We’re going to get people into careers they want—and stay with them until they can stand on their own,” Evie Litwok said of the Art of Tailoring in an interview with QNS. “What we’re doing is transformative.”
However, the program is not only personally transformative for its participants; it also has the potential to drive revolutionary change in how the U.S. addresses recidivism and reentry.
Along with personal impacts, the Art of Tailoring has large-scale economic benefits. While putting a student through the two-year program costs $12,500, detaining someone in Rikers Island costs $556,539 a year per person as of 2021—amounting to $1,525 a day. The same holds true for similar initiatives across the state; reentry and alternative-to-incarceration (ATI) programs save New York's correctional facilities more than $100 million a year. A 2016 study found an economic benefit of $3.46 to $5.54 for every dollar invested in such community-based programs.
Despite its benefits, Litwok is the first to admit that the Art of Tailoring cannot meet all the needs of its participants single-handedly. “For about $6,000 a year, for a total of two years, I can put somebody into business,” she said. “But that does not include stipends, and providing dinner, you know, providing a meal, or providing a metro card. This is the cost of teaching.”
System-impacted individuals often lack access to basic necessities such as food, shelter, and transportation—the very factors that frequently drive recidivism—and the Art of Tailoring can’t yet provide such assistance. “There are far more people who are in shelters that can be helped and should be helped with a support program. When you give out a grant to teach the Art of Tailoring, you also have to provide stipends to cover their expenses, including transportation and food. You can’t think straight if you’re hungry, and almost every person coming to that class is hungry,” Litwok said. “They have to miss a class if they’re working, they have to miss a class if they don’t have a metro card, they have to miss a class if they’re hungry and have to go somewhere to pick up food for themselves. So, without creating a safety net, you’re basically assuring the more privileged kids, who can get loans, are successful, and kids who have no money can’t be successful.”
While emphasizing the importance of vocational training, such as the Art of Tailoring, Litwok stresses that it can’t solve the problem alone. “If you can’t get the basic support of, in my opinion, stipends, food, and transportation covered, you can’t succeed.”
Like-minded organizations in NYC are striving to provide a wider array of necessities for the formerly incarcerated, such as The Fortune Society, a Queens-based nonprofit taking a holistic approach to reentry services and alternatives to incarceration. Similar to the Art of Tailoring, the Fortune Society’s Employment Services program offers specialized job training in areas such as culinary arts, sustainable construction and building maintenance, and transportation, as well as opportunities for short-term transitional work to gain employment experience. However, they also provide a range of services to address needs that such training may not cover, including transitional and long-term housing options, daily meals and nutrition education, connections to health services, and access to mental health and substance use treatment, among others. They proudly served 13,377 individuals in 2024, including nearly 600 participants enrolled in their employment training services and over 1,000 individuals to whom they provided housing, helping them rebuild successful lives after incarceration.
“We have demonstrated proof of concept in New York City that ATI and reentry services not only help people get out and stay out of jail and prison but also move on with their lives and support their families and communities,” Stanley Richards, President and CEO of the Fortune Society and formerly incarcerated individual himself, said in response to a 2024 report by the New York State Alternatives to Incarceration and Reentry Coalition.
More broadly, the benefits of such ATI programs are increasingly being recognized. New York State Senator Julia Salazar, Chair of the Committee on Crime Victims, Crime and Correction, is an advocate for prison reform and is currently fighting for the rights of incarcerated individuals. “If New York State has a duty to keep ALL its residents safe, we must end our reliance on incarceration as the solution to our social problems,” Salazar said in reaction to the same New York report. “On release, formerly incarcerated people are positioned at great socioeconomic disadvantage without supports in place to address their unique needs. We can end mass incarceration and keep our communities safe if we invest in proven programs and compassionate care.”
The Art of Tailoring’s students have already started to see success only a few months into the program, sporting their latest designs in their own fashion show at the Youth Pride Fest at Pier 76 on June 7th—one of the many events Witness is participating in this Pride Month to celebrate and garner support for the LGBTQ+ system-impacted community. Litwok and the organization were also honored at the SunnyPride celebration in Queens on June 13th for their anti-recidivism work, a testament to Witness’s dedication to its mission.
“On the one hand, you’re giving them something they can do, and if they can earn a living, they’ll never be in your system. It won’t reduce recidivism, it will eliminate recidivism,” Litwok said of system-impacted individuals. “On the other hand, if you send a kid to Rikers for some minor thing or any reason, you’re going to damage them for life. So, which option do you like?”
SUGGESTION: Reducing Recidivism, One System-Impacted Entrepreneur at a Time
a long hallway with a bunch of lockers in it Photo by Matthew Ansley on Unsplash
Alexis Tamm is a senior at Georgetown University. An avid writer and aspiring journalist, she is passionate about solutions-focused reporting and driving change through storytelling.
Alexis was a cohort member in Common Ground USA's Journalism program, where Hugo Balta served as an instructor. Balta is the executive editor of the Fulcrum and the publisher of the Latino News Network.
The Fulcrum is committed to nurturing the next generation of journalists. Learn more by clicking HERE.
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Just the Facts: Supreme Court Ruling in Trump v. CASA Narrows Judicial Power, Reshapes Legal Landscape
Jul 09, 2025
The Fulcrum strives to approach news stories with an open mind and skepticism, striving to present our readers with a broad spectrum of viewpoints through diligent research and critical thinking. As best we can, remove personal bias from our reporting and seek a variety of perspectives in both our news gathering and selection of opinion pieces. However, before our readers can analyze varying viewpoints, they must have the facts.
The Supreme Court’s recent decision in Trump v. CASA marks a significant shift in the balance of power between the executive and judicial branches—particularly in how federal courts can respond to presidential actions.
In a 6–3 ruling along ideological lines, the Court held that federal district courts lack the authority to issue universal (or nationwide) injunctions—orders that block a federal policy or executive action from being enforced against anyone beyond the plaintiffs in a given case. Instead, the Court concluded that lower courts may only grant relief sufficient to provide “complete relief” to the parties before them.
What the Ruling Means in Practice
- Individuals or organizations seeking to challenge a presidential order must now sue individually or as part of a certified class action.
- Courts can no longer issue sweeping injunctions that halt a federal policy nationwide while litigation proceeds.
Implications for Presidential Power
The decision effectively narrows one of the judiciary’s most powerful tools for checking executive authority. As a result:
- Presidents may implement contested policies more freely, even while those policies are under legal challenge.
- Legal opposition will likely become more fragmented and slower, requiring coordinated lawsuits across multiple jurisdictions.
- The precedent applies to future administrations as well, regardless of party, potentially expanding the scope of executive action without immediate nationwide judicial constraint.
Impact on Birthright Citizenship
The Court did not address the constitutionality of President Trump’s executive order seeking to end birthright citizenship. That issue remains unresolved and will continue to be litigated in lower courts.
Broader Constitutional Questions
The ruling has sparked debate over the judiciary’s role as a co-equal branch of government. In her dissent, Justice Sonia Sotomayor warned that the decision could allow presidents to enforce potentially unconstitutional policies while legal challenges are still pending, thereby weakening the courts’ ability to provide timely relief.
Context: A Long Arc of Expanding Executive Power
The CASA decision fits within a broader historical trend of increasing presidential authority. However, it stands out as a judicially sanctioned limitation on the courts themselves—altering the structural balance of power.
Era | Key Developments | Impact |
Jacksonian Era (1820s–40s) | Asserted strong executive leadership, vetoed the national bank | Sparked fears of “King Andrew I” authoritarianism |
Lincoln (1860s) | Suspended habeas corpus during the Civil War | Set the precedent for emergency powers |
FDR (1930s–40s) | New Deal programs via executive orders | Expanded federal and executive authority dramatically |
Post-WWII Presidents | Truman entered the Korean War without Congress; Eisenhower used CIA covertly | Cemented the president as a foreign policy leader |
Post-9/11 Era | Bush expanded surveillance and war powers | The Patriot Act and unitary executive theory gained traction |
Trump Era | Frequent use of executive orders, challenged norms | Pushed boundaries on immigration and emergency declarations |
Unlike previous expansions that increased executive tools, the CASA ruling limits the judiciary’s ability to respond—marking a structural shift in the separation of powers.
Implications for Future Litigation Strategies
The decision is prompting a strategic recalibration among civil rights groups, democracy reform advocates, and public interest litigators. Key shifts include:
- A move away from reliance on single-district court rulings to block federal policies nationwide.
- Increased use of class action lawsuits to achieve broader relief, though these efforts are often more complex and time-consuming.
- Greater emphasis on coordinated, multi-jurisdictional legal strategies to build momentum across the courts.
In response, coalitions such as Democracy 2025 are developing legal infrastructure to meet this challenge, including rapid-response teams and pooled legal resources.
Legal scholars and institutions are also weighing in. Just Security, a nonpartisan law and policy forum, has published a detailed analysis outlining alternative legal pathways to achieve broader relief in the post-CASA landscape.
Strategic Takeaway
While the CASA ruling does not expand executive power directly, it reshapes the legal terrain on which executive authority is contested. For those working to uphold democratic accountability, the decision underscores the need for:
- Distributed legal strategies across jurisdictions
- Narrative framing that connects legal challenges to democratic principles
- Collaborative infrastructure that integrates litigation, civic engagement, and public education
As the legal and civic sectors adapt, the ruling may serve as a catalyst for new forms of democratic resilience—rooted not only in the courts but in the broader ecosystem of public accountability.
David Nevins is co-publisher of The Fulcrum and co-founder and board chairman of the Bridge Alliance Education Fund.Keep ReadingShow less
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