Podcast: How likely is an Electoral College tie in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election?

Once again, the Fourth of July rolls around with its arsenal of rituals—flags whipped by summer wind, fireworks pulsing in the night sky, the smoky tang of barbecue curling above backyards and city parks. On paper, the day is pure celebration: independence won, liberty enshrined, a nation’s ongoing promise to itself. But if you look closely—if you listen to the conversations at the edge of the parade or watch who stands comfortably in the light and who lingers in the shadows—the holiday reveals something far more complicated.

One doesn’t have to look hard to see that our independence, while hard-fought, is also unfinished. The United States was born with a contradiction at its heart: the ringing declaration that “all men are created equal,” written and ratified by men who held others in bondage. Every July, we drape those words across our lawns and our hearts, but how often do we pause to grapple with their incomplete fulfillment?