Skip to content
Search

Latest Stories

Top Stories

Virginia's results are no mystery, if you know your election history

Ross Perot and Bill Clinton at the 1992 presidential debate

Either party could capture the middle if they studied Ross Perot's 1992 presidential run, writes Salit.

Wally McNamee/CORBIS/Corbis via Getty Images

Salit is president of Independent Voting, which works to promote the political clout of unaffiliated voters, and the author of "Independents Rising: Outsider Movements, Third Parties, and the Struggle for a Post-Partisan America."

A look in the rearview mirror can reveal a lot. And sometimes objects are closer than they appear.

The year was 1993. Bill Clinton had been elected president with 43 percent of the popular vote. His predecessor, George H.W. Bush, had been turned out of office after one term. And a Texas billionaire with no history in politics or government, Ross Perot, had mesmerized the country with his independent presidential bid and stood on the debate stage with Clinton and Bush, garnering nearly 20 million votes.

The Democratic Party held the White House and a majority in Congress. But the party was worried. Clinton had taken office without a clear majority and his mandate to govern was thin. Internally, the party was restive and divided, echoes of the progressive Jesse Jackson Rainbow movement still reverberating against the party's turn towards Clintonian centrism. Looking to the future – not merely the next election but the prospect of creating a durable electoral majority – the Democratic Leadership Council commissioned a study of the Perot voter. "These voters hold the key to the future of American politics, and there are widespread misconceptions about them," Al From, the president of the DLC, announced at a press conference on July 7, when the results of the study were released.


From argued that the arrival of the independent voter in the mold of the Perot uprising offered a "rare chance to realign U.S. politics around a new Democratic governing majority." What was the profile of these Americans? Will Marshall, the president of the Progressive Policy Institute (which ran the study), had this answer: "The Perot voters don't want centrism, they want change." Further, Marshall observed, "In their view, breaking the gridlock means standing outside the old, polarized debate, offering ideas that break the intellectual gridlock between left and right, and don't simply take sides in that debate." Any strategy to engage with these voters, he said, "has to speak to the deep alienation that these voters feel towards politics as usual, towards the two parties, and towards the government."

These findings must have been conflicting for the DLC. It was promoting a brand of Democratic Party politics built around an idea of centrism, not rebellion or rejection of the status quo. Nonetheless, at the time the DLC urged that Clinton and the Democrats could make sufficient inroads with these voters to buttress his unstable coalition. That would mean grasping a new reality. Stanley Greenberg, who conducted the survey, saw that new reality in stark terms: "I believe we will find [it is] an enduring phenomenon." Greenberg saw "the depth of the alienation of these voters from both political parties, from the political institutions of this country, from the system as a whole, which leaves them estranged from this process, watchful of the process, wanting change, but also deeply, deeply skeptical." Their independence, he said, "is a fact of political life of which all the parties and leaders of this country are going to have to take into account."

Greenberg estimated that roughly half of Perot's 20 million votes came from independents and that the Perot voter was younger than the overall electorate. "They are out here as independents for a reason. They believe [they were] failed by the political process of the past number of decades, and they're looking for something new," he said.

Greenberg searched for deep insight into the mindset of this independent uprising, the "underlying thematic dimensions." Even he seemed surprised by the results. He described Perot voters as "quite libertarian," including that they were identical to Clinton voters on the question of abortion. Perot voters, he said, were "uncomfortable" with the politics of the Republican coalition and disagreed sharply with the positions of the Christian Coalition. They had "strong support for tolerance." Greenberg asserted that these independents were anti-establishment, populist and harboring an emotional dimension that "ordinary people [are] forgotten in the process." Perot voters were "for radically changing government." Political reform, curbing special interests, and restoring public trust were key. They wanted a government that "would act creatively and efficiently to try to help ordinary people."

The DLC leaders had their work cut out for them. Vice President Al Gore's "Re-Invent Government" project was a dismal response, its 384 recommendations failing to touch the "underlying themes" animating the independent voter. Ultimately, though, the Clinton camp knew that their most important aim was defensive. It was to prevent the independent explosion from being able to "congeal into a permanent third force."

Flash forward to 2021. That third force has not congealed in traditional ways, yet. But independents who were 34 percent of the electorate in 1993 and are 41 percent today are deciding important elections from top to bottom. Isn't it time for the Democrats — and the Republicans — to study this history and adjust their playbooks accordingly?

Read More

A Witch Hunt Won’t Feed America
red meat in white plastic bag

A Witch Hunt Won’t Feed America

Missouri’s food economy runs on undocumented labor. Turning a blind eye won’t work anymore.

In meatpacking plants across Missouri, hundreds of workers clock in before dawn, keeping one of the state’s most essential industries up and running. Many of them are Latino immigrants, some undocumented, who have become the invisible backbone of Missouri’s $93.7 billion agriculture economy. They’re the ones who process the pork and clean the poultry that end up on our dinner tables.

Keep ReadingShow less
Two speech bubbles overlapping.

Recent data shows that Americans view members of the opposing political party overly negatively, leading people to avoid political discourse with those who hold different views.

Getty Images, Richard Drury

How To Motivate Americans’ Conversations Across Politics

Introduction

A large body of research shows that Americans hold overly negative distortions of those across the political spectrum. These misperceptions—often referred to as "Perception Gaps"—make civil discourse harder, since few Americans are eager to engage with people they believe are ideologically extreme, interpersonally hostile, or even threatening or inferior. When potential disagreement feels deeply uncomfortable or dangerous, conversations are unlikely to begin.

Correcting these distortions can help reduce barriers to productive dialogue, making Americans more open to political conversations.

Keep ReadingShow less
A medical professional wearing gloves, putting a band-aid on a patient's shoulder.

RFK Jr. has publicly challenged the safety of vaccines, although the evidence he cites is widely disputed by mainstream scientists, medical institutions, and public health experts.

Getty Images, Jackyenjoyphotography

Just the Facts: Vaccine Safety, RFK Jr.’s Claims, and Florida’s Mandate Rollback

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is currently the United States Secretary of Health and Human Services and is responsible for shaping national health policy, managing public health programs, and guiding medical research and regulatory frameworks.

He has publicly challenged the safety of vaccines, including required childhood immunizations and COVID-19 vaccines. However, the evidence he cites is widely disputed by mainstream scientists, medical institutions, and public health experts.

Keep ReadingShow less
League of Women Voters of Arkansas President Bonnie Miller on a hike, standing in front of a landscape view.

Katie Fahey speaks with League of Women Voters of Arkansas President Bonnie Miller on democracy reform across the state and her work in civically educating and engaging residents.

The Fahey Q&A With Bonnie Miller of the League of Women Voters, Arkansas

Since organizing the Voters Not Politicians 2018 ballot initiative that put citizens in charge of drawing Michigan's legislative maps, Fahey has been the founding executive director of The People, which is forming statewide networks to promote government accountability. She regularly interviews colleagues in the world of democracy reform for our Opinion section.

Bonnie Miller is known for her activism in democracy reform in Arkansas and is the current president of the League of Women Voters of Arkansas and chair of Save AR Democracy, a campaign to protect ballot initiatives in Arkansas. In 2020, Miller led the Arkansas Voters First campaign, which garnered significant support but was eventually struck down by the Arkansas Supreme Court. She continues to lead the fight for a better democracy in her state while also working in higher education at the University of Arkansas School of Law.

Keep ReadingShow less