Skip to content
Search

Latest Stories

Top Stories

How to win a bar bet on election night

screenshot of Steve Kornacki

You don't need to be Steve Kornacki to know which states (and counties) to watch on election night.

YouTube screenshot

Klug served in the House of Representatives from 1991 to 1999. He hosts the political podcast “Lost in the Middle: America’s Political Orphans.”

The odds are you don’t go to sleep at night and dream of precinct maps and tabulation deadlines like NBC’s breathless election guru Steve Kornacki. Watch him on election night and you will be dazzled and exhausted by his machine-gun-like sharing of statistics and crosstabs.


But you don’t need a human copy of the “Almanac of American Politics” to navigate election night.

Here is what you need to know. America’s 50 states have 3,242 counties. But in our latest episode of the “Lost in the Middle“ podcast, we explain why you only need to focus on seven states on election night. Hard to believe but that’s where we are today. Just seven in a shrinking number of swing states.

So where to start? Amy Walter of the prestigious Cook Political Report keeps her eyes on one really large state.

“I play this game a lot, and I really call it ‘If you could ask God one question.’ Now I would hope that if I had one question to ask God it wouldn't be about who won. But, anyway, if he said, ‘You could ask me one thing about the 2024 election,’ I really want to know Pennsylvania,” she told us.

Sign up for The Fulcrum newsletter

Pennsylvania ranks sixth in electoral votes and it’s tough for Democrats to win if they lose i,t as Hillary Clinton found in 2016. And chances are you are, “Thinking should I watch Philadelphia or Pittsburgh?” Kornacki would be disappointed in you. The battleground county on Walter’s list is Erie, in the far northwestern corner close to Ohio. Its residents cheer for the Cleveland Browns, not the Steelers or Eagles.

Retiree Mary Buchert has a tough time explaining her neck of the woods, which has an amazing track record of picking winners.

“Well, Erie County itself is strongly Republican, very pro Trump. The city is strongly Democratic,” she said. “It’s just kind of baffling, and actually in much of Pennsylvania, they view us as belonging to Canada. They're just sort of baffled by us. And we are kind of baffled by the election coming up. I have no clue which way it will go. I have no clue what way I'm going to go.”

In “Lost in the Middle,” we profile her neighborhood and the six other counties to watch on election night. Gwinnett County, Ga.: Dane County, Wis. Jackson County, Mich.; Maricopa County, Ariz.; and Washoe County, Nev.

Of course, that’s only five. You don’t have to be Steve Kornacki to remember the 2000 trainwreck that was, and perhaps will be again, Miami-Dade County, Fla.

Tips to win a bar bet on Election Night by Scott Klug

Seven counties to watch

Read on Substack

Read More

Women voting
Edmond Dantès

Voters are no less anxious about elections now than they were in 2020

Reid-Vanas is a clinical therapist at, and founder of, Rocky Mountain Counseling Collective.

New research by Rocky Mountain Counseling Collective reveals that American voters are already experiencing more election anxiety in 2024 than they did on Election Day 2020 (typically the day of highest election anxiety). The findings come from analyzing the Household Pulse Survey, a collaboration between the Census Bureau and federal agencies.

At the height of the 2020 election, just over half (51 percent) of surveyed Americans reported experiencing anxiety.

Keep ReadingShow less
Hispanic family

Rafael Mendez and his family.

Courtesy Rafael Mendez

U.S. Hispanic voters: Breaking the monolith myth

Macias, a former journalist with NBC and CBS, owns the public relations agencyMacias PR.

The Fulcrum presents We the People, a series elevating the voices and visibility of the persons most affected by the decisions of elected officials. In this installment, we explore the motivations of over 36 million eligible Latino voters as they prepare to make their voices heard in November.

According to the Census Bureau, the Hispanic, Latino population makes up the largest racial or ethnic minority group in America. But this group is not a monolith. Macias explores providing a more accurate and nuanced understanding of this diverse population.

Several new political polls examine how Hispanic voters view former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. Not surprisingly, the polls are all over the place, even though they were taken around the same time.

Keep ReadingShow less
ballot envelope

Close-up of a 2020 mail-in ballot envelope for Maricopa County, Ariz.

Smith Collection/Gado/Getty Images

Election Overtime Project kicks off state briefings in Arizona

The worsening political polarization in America is creating deep anxiety among voters about the upcoming 2024 elections. Many Americans fear what disputed elections could mean for our democracy. However, close and contested elections are a part of American history, and all states have processes in place to handle just such situations. It is critical citizens understand how these systems work so that they trust the results.

Trusted elections are the foundation of our democracy.

Keep ReadingShow less
People protesting with a large banner that reads "Voters Decide"

Protesters in Detroit rally to support the 2020 election results and other causes.

Why the cost of water for poor Black Detroit voters may be key to Kamala Harris winning – or losing – Michigan

Ronald Brown is a professor of political science at Wayne State University. R. Khari Brown is a professor of sociology at Wayne State University.

The threat of violence was in the air at the TCF Center in Detroit on Nov. 5, 2020, after former President Donald Trump claimed that poll workers in the city were duplicating ballots and that there was an unexplained delay in delivering them for counting.

Both claims were later debunked.

Emboldened by Trump’s rhetoric, dozens of mainly white Republican Trump supporters banged on doors and windows at the vote-tallying center, chanting, “Stop the count!”

Keep ReadingShow less
Woman speaking at a podium

Shirley Chisholm speaks at the 1972 Democratic National Convention.

Bettmann/Getty Images

A reflection: How Kamala Harris is carrying the torch

Johnson is a United Methodist pastor, the author of "Holding Up Your Corner: Talking About Race in Your Community" and program director for the Bridge Alliance, which houses The Fulcrum.

As the 2024 presidential campaign season heats up, with Vice President Kamala Harris emerging as a formidable contender, it's a moment to reflect on the enduring power of the feminist mantra that has shaped generations of women in politics: "The personal is political."

This potent idea, popularized by trailblazers like Shirley Chisholm and bell hooks, continues to resonate through women's leadership actions today. It's particularly relevant in the context of the 2024 election, as we witness Harris' campaign and the unmistakable impact of her personal experiences on her political vision.

Keep ReadingShow less