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The Gerrymandering Crisis Escalates: Can Reform Stop the 2026 Power Grab?

With Trump backing mid-decade redraws in key states, reformers warn of a rigged 2026 map that could lock in minority rule and erode voter accountability.

Opinion

Anti-gerrymandering protest
Anti-gerrymandering protest
Sarah L. Voisin/Getty Images

The battle over redistricting is intensifying across the country, with bipartisan concern mounting over democratic legitimacy, racial equity, and the urgent need for structural reform. Yet despite years of advocacy from cross-partisan organizations and scholars, the partisan battle over gerrymandering is accelerating, threatening to fracture the very foundation of representative democracy.

The Fulcrum has been watching closely. In our August 8th editorial, we warned of the dilemma now facing the reform movement:


“At The Fulcrum, we’ve consistently amplified voices advocating for structural reforms: eliminating gerrymandering, fixing campaign finance, opening primaries, and advancing ranked-choice voting. The leaders of national reform organizations we regularly feature view these changes not simply as policy adjustments, but as moral imperatives essential to ensuring citizens have a meaningful voice and agency in their governance.”

These reforms rest on a foundational assumption: that we operate within a functioning representative, democratic framework where voters ultimately shape the system rather than being shaped by it. But what happens when that assumption collapses?

In our February editorial, we reaffirmed our commitment to avoid reflexive partisanship while telling the truth about real threats to democratic governance. We acknowledged the complexity of our moment—and the need to distinguish legitimate political debate from norm-breaking behavior that corrodes democratic values. That balance between clarity and complexity, truth and transparency, remains our editorial compass. But as democratic backsliding accelerates, the terrain we navigate grows more precarious.

Now two weeks after our August column the crisis has deepened.

Gerrymandering battles are escalating in at least six states, with Texas and Florida leading a mid-decade redistricting push that critics call a raw power grab. In Texas, Governor Greg Abbott—backed by President Trump—is pursuing a plan to redraw congressional maps to add five Republican seats, bypassing the traditional post-census timeline. Democratic lawmakers fled the state to block the vote, triggering a constitutional standoff and national outrage. The proposed maps crack and pack minority communities, especially in Travis County (Austin), where five districts now dilute Democratic strength.

Meanwhile, Florida’s Republican-controlled legislature is launching a similar effort, despite the state’s Fair Districts Amendment banning partisan gerrymandering. Governor Ron DeSantis and House Speaker Paul Renner have formed a select committee to explore legal avenues for redrawing maps, potentially cementing GOP dominance ahead of 2026.

Other states are watching and preparing to retaliate. Democratic governors in California and New York have pledged to “fight fire with fire,” with plans to redraw their own maps to counter Republican gains. Indiana, Missouri, and South Carolina are also under scrutiny, as GOP leaders consider redistricting maneuvers to expand their congressional foothold. The result is a partisan arms race that threatens to destabilize electoral norms, with lawmakers representing ever-shifting districts and voters losing meaningful representation. Experts warn that without national redistricting standards, the U.S. could enter a cycle of perpetual map warfare undermining democratic accountability and fueling polarization.

And across the country reform leaders are sounding the alarm. As reported in the Fulcrum on August 18th Micahel Walman, President of the Brennan Center for Justice writes

“Voters should choose their politicians, not the other way around. The Texas gerrymander and the partisan war it has triggered signal an extraordinarily dangerous period for American democracy.”

In the writing, Walman calls for national redistricting standards and criticizes both parties for failing to act when they had the chance

Lee Drutman, senior fellow at New America a leading advocate for proportional representation, sees gerrymandering not as the root problem but as a symptom of a deeper structural flaw: the single-member district system. As long as congressional elections are winner-take-all contests in geographically drawn districts, politicians will have strong incentives to manipulate boundaries for partisan gain. Even independent commissions, he argues, are limited when the system itself rewards polarization and geographic sorting. Drutman’s solution is proportional representation which would allow multiple representatives per district and ensure that votes translate more fairly into seats. He frequently cites the Apportionment Act of 1842 as the moment that entrenched single-member districts, setting the stage for today’s redistricting wars. “The only way to end the gerrymandering wars,” he writes, “is proportional representation.”

In the coming weeks, The Fulcrum will be watching with laser focus as this battle intensifies. With President Trump openly backing mid-decade redistricting efforts in states like Texas, Missouri, and Florida, the stakes have escalated beyond partisan maneuvering into a full-blown campaign to consolidate power ahead of the 2026 midterms.

Reform advocates warn that artificially drawn lines are engineered to dilute the voting power of communities of color and entrench incumbents and threaten to turn representative democracy into a rigged game.

As protests erupt nationwide and governors from both parties prepare retaliatory redraws, the specter of “mutually assured gerrymandering” looms large. Citizens fear that Trump’s strategy, bolstered by executive orders and partisan commissions, could lock in minority rule and neuter electoral accountability for decades to come

The Fulcrum will continue to track these developments regularly. As partisan maneuvering intensifies and states test the boundaries of electoral norms, we remain committed to providing clear, nonpartisan coverage that distinguishes structural critique from political reaction. Our editorial compass remains focused on transparency, democratic integrity, and the evolving debate over how best to ensure fair representation in a rapidly shifting landscape.

David Nevins is co-publisher of The Fulcrum and co-founder and board chairman of the Bridge Alliance Education Fund.


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Baltazar Enríquez: Perspectives from Little Village Community Council President

Baltazar Enriquez stands with "ICE OUT OF CHICAGO" sign in Chicago's Little Village neighborhood

Teresa Ayala Leon

Baltazar Enríquez: Perspectives from Little Village Community Council President

Baltzar Enríquez was born in Michoacán, Mexico, and moved to Chicago at the age of three. Little Village, often called “The Mexico of the Midwest,” became his new home, a community he has grown to love and serve. In 2008, Enríquez joined the Little Village Community Council, a nonprofit organization originally founded in 1957. Upon becoming a member, he noticed the lack of participation and limited community programs available for residents. In 2020, he was named president of the council and began expanding, introducing initiatives such as Equal Education for Latinos, among other resources for the Little Village community. Enríquez reflected on his years of involvement and how he has navigated leading the council amid the current political climate.

Question: What inspired you most to get involved in the council?

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In the South, there is an idiom that says, “Don’t throw the baby out with the bathwater.” It means not discarding something valuable while trying to eliminate something harmful. The Department of Health and Human Services’ (HHS) proposed response to unsubstantiated child care fraud allegations in Minnesota risks doing exactly that.

The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) has frozen child care and family assistance grants in five states, and reports indicate that this action may be extended nationwide. Fraud at any level is wrong and should be thoroughly investigated, and once proven to be true, addressed. However, freezing child care payments and family assistance grants based on the views of a single social media “influencer” is an overcorrection that threatens the stability of child care programs and leaves families without care options through no fault of their own.

Across the nation, Americans rely heavily on child care. According to the Center for American Progress, nearly 70 percent of children under age six had all available parents in the workforce in 2023, underscoring how essential child care is to family and economic stability.

Child care funding, therefore, is not optional. It is a necessity that must remain stable and predictable.

Without consistent funding, child care operations are forced to significantly reduce capacity, and some are forced to close altogether. In 2025, a longtime family child care owner made the difficult decision to close her business after state budget cuts eliminated critical child care funding. While this example reflects a state-level funding failure, the impact is the same. When funding becomes unreliable, as is the case with the current funding freeze, child care business owners, employees, parents, and children all suffer.

The economic consequences extend well beyond families. According to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, when parents cannot find or afford child care, they are pushed out of the workforce, and businesses lose skilled employees. Child care gaps disrupt staffing across industries and cost states an estimated $1 billion annually in lost economic activity.

Child care is no longer just a family issue. It is an economic issue. It is one of the few sectors that directly affects every other industry. At a time when women are being encouraged to have more children, a strong support system must also exist, and that includes consistent, reliable child care funding.

Misuse of government funds is not a new concept. During the COVID-19 pandemic, more than $200 billion in federal relief funding across programs was reportedly misused. Fraud occurs in every industry, and no system is immune to it.

If allegations of child care fraud are substantiated, safeguards should absolutely be implemented to prevent future misuse; however, freezing child care funding would further delay payments to a sector already plagued by late reimbursements, disrupt services for children and families, and destabilize small businesses that operate on thin margins.

The solution is straightforward. Strengthen oversight to mitigate risk, without punishing the entire field. We must acknowledge that the vast majority of child care programs operate in good faith and in compliance with the law, providing care to millions of children nationwide. According to a 2020 report by the United States Government Accountability Office, only seven states since 2013 have had errors in more than 10 percent of their child care fund payments.

Yes, accountability matters, but solutions must be precise and measured. Sweeping actions based on unsubstantiated claims destabilize the entire child care system. When child care collapses, families lose care, caregivers lose income, small businesses close, and the economy suffers.

We can strengthen safeguards without dismantling the system that families and the economy depend on. We can address misuse if and where it exists. But we cannot afford to throw the baby out with the bathwater.

Eboni Delaney is the Director of Policy and Movement Building at the National Association for Family Child Care (NAFCC), and a Public Voices Fellow of the OpEd Project in Partnership with the National Black Child Development Institute.

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The economic pain that now defines everyday life for so many people is often treated as a separate problem, something to be solved with better policy, smarter technocrats, or a new round of targeted fixes. Wages stagnate, housing becomes unreachable, healthcare bankrupts families, monopolies tighten their grip, and public services decay. But these outcomes are not accidents, nor are they the result of abstract market forces acting in isolation. They are the predictable consequence of a democratic order that has come apart at the seams. Our deepest crisis is not economic. It is democratic. The economy is merely where that crisis becomes visible and painful.

When democracy weakens, power concentrates. When power concentrates, it seeks insulation from accountability. Over time, wealth and political authority fuse into a self-reinforcing system that governs in the name of the people while quietly serving private interests. This is how regulatory agencies become captured, how tax codes grow incomprehensible except to those who pay to shape them, how antitrust laws exist on paper but rarely in practice, and how labor protections erode while corporate protections harden. None of this requires overt corruption. It operates legally, procedurally, and efficiently. Influence is purchased not through bribes but through campaign donations, access, revolving doors, and the sheer asymmetry of time, expertise, and money.

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Washington Loves Blaming Latin America for Drugs — While Ignoring the American Appetite That Fuels the Trade

For decades, the United States has perfected a familiar political ritual: condemn Latin American governments for the flow of narcotics northward, demand crackdowns, and frame the crisis as something done to America rather than something America helps create. It is a narrative that travels well in press conferences and campaign rallies. It is also a distortion — one that obscures the central truth of the hemispheric drug trade: the U.S. market exists because Americans keep buying.

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