How a ‘Bad’ Ceasefire Deal With Russia Could Jeopardize Ukraine, American Interests

WASHINGTON — As the Trump administration resumes sending weapons to Ukraine and continues urging a ceasefire with Russia, international actors have voiced warnings against a deal that could leave Ukraine vulnerable, jeopardize nearby countries, and threaten American interests.

President Donald Trump has vowed to end the war, but a United States-brokered deal would need to balance Ukraine's independence and European security, experts have said.

Russia has a lot to lose if a ceasefire favors Ukraine, while the U.S. faces its own global risks if Russian President Vladimir Putin comes out victorious.

Ukraine signed an agreement on June 25 to establish the Special Tribunal for the Crime of Aggression against Ukraine, which would prosecute political and military leaders for crimes of aggression involving armed force – in other words, launching a war.

In a webinar titled “The Trial of the Century,” some international officials called the move a “victory” in its “current shape and form.”

“Although it cannot try Vladimir Putin right now, we believe that it can damage his reputation, damage Russians, the view of Russia in the world, and their capacity to conduct business as usual with other countries,” said Inna Liniova, director of the Institute of Human Rights of the Ukrainian Bar Association.

The world is waiting for a peace deal, but will peace ever come?

A ‘bad’ deal

“Should a bad peace in Ukraine prevail, Russia’s endeavors in the South Caucasus will succeed, and this will produce irreversible harm to American strategic interests,” said Nerses Kopalyan, assistant professor-in-residence of political science at the University of Nevada.

The professor, along with a journalist and a policy researcher, raised concerns to the House about the “cost of a bad deal in Ukraine” in a hearing before the U.S. Helsinki Commission in late June.

What would a bad deal between Russia and Ukraine look like? Experts said any deal that favors Russia jeopardizes democracy in other countries.

Three smaller European countries – Moldova, Belarus, and Armenia – would be impacted most immediately should Russia win the three-year-long war, witnesses at the hearing said. This would threaten regional security, with broader implications for U.S. relations.

Moldova, which shares a border with Ukraine, joined the European Union in 2022 as a democratic government. A deal that favors Russia could threaten the new democracy and lead to instability and corruption in the Black Sea.

“Its government is a trusted partner for U.S. and European efforts to stem the flow of illicit trade and human trafficking,” said Michael Cecire, a policy researcher with the RAND Corporation.

He pointed out that Chinese aggression would accompany Russia’s in the region.

“Ukraine is the front line, but the entire region is under threat,” Cecire said. “Our grandparents knew well that the security of the United States was inseparable from that of Europe.”

Belarus, which shares a border with both Russia and Ukraine, could host Russian weapons and troops, Sen. Roger Wicker, R-Miss., said.

Belarusian journalist Hanna Liubakova testified that her country had “been transformed into a Russian military outpost” since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. A “bad deal” would threaten Belarus’ independence.

“Russia is turning Belarus into a strategic launchpad for future escalation against NATO. Putin's ambitions stretch far beyond Ukraine,” Liubakova said. “A free Belarus means a safer Europe and a safer Ukraine. U.S. leverage is essential.”

Armenia, which does not border Ukraine or Russia, is a strategic partner to the U.S., Kopalyan said. The country possesses mines and rare earth minerals, and it also collaborates with the U.S. in the field of artificial intelligence.

“This matters to American families,” Rep. Joe Wilson, R-S.C., said at the hearing.

He added that a victory for Putin would not stay confined to Eastern Europe. “It will embolden America's enemies everywhere,” Wilson said. “But a Ukrainian victory will reinforce the message that aggression does not pay, and America stands for its values and interests alike.”

A ‘good’ deal

What would a good deal between Russia and Ukraine look like?

University of Nevada professor Kopalyan said at the hearing that Russian peace is “basically a form of frozen conflict that allows Russia to manage the conflict.” A good deal would have some form of equity without coercion.

Is that possible? The U.S.-Ukraine Foundation isn’t sure.

“I don't think any ceasefire is particularly good because I don't think Russia will abide by any ceasefire for any period of time. Putin has made clear what his objectives are,” Bob McConnell, co-founder of the foundation, a nonprofit that supports Ukraine’s partnership with the U.S., told The Fulcrum.

Russia wants Ukraine’s territory, while Ukraine wants Russia out. No deal can accomplish this. McConnell said, “I don't think any ceasefire, indeed, I don’t think any peace agreement should ever be considered by Ukraine or the West if Ukraine is not given back.”

Vladyslav Havrylov, a fellow with Georgetown University’s Collaborative on Global Children’s Issues, lives in Kyiv as he studies the forcible transfer, deportation, and reeducation of Ukrainian children. He told The Fulcrum he hopes a ceasefire deal will favor children and prisoners of war.

He also said he hopes “that the USA society could help to stop this.”

Trump announced Wednesday that the U.S. would resume sending some weapons to Ukraine after the Pentagon paused some shipments the week before.

“I think it’s a good decision, and we are grateful to the Trump administration for making a positive decision to transfer weapons to Ukraine, especially those intended for defense.”

Ashley N. Soriano is a graduate student at Northwestern University Medill School of Journalism in the Politics, Policy and Foreign Affairs specialization.