Just the Facts: Canada-U.S. Tariff Update- What’s Changed Since March 2025?

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What is a tariff?

A tariff is a tax imposed by a government on imports or exports of goods, often used to protect domestic industries or respond to trade disputes.

What tariffs does Canada currently impose on U.S. products?

As of August 2025, Canada has significantly reduced its retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods. On September 1, Canada will lift most of the 25% counter-tariffs it imposed in March on $29.8 billion worth of U.S. imports.. However, tariffs remain in place for strategic sectors:

• Steel and Aluminum: 25% tariffs remain on U.S. steel and aluminum imports.
• Automobiles: Canadian tariffs on U.S. automobiles remain in effect.
• Lumber and Copper: These sectors continue to face targeted duties.

Goods covered under the USMCA (Canada’s CUSMA) are now largely tariff-free, reflecting a renewed commitment to free trade.

What tariffs does the United States currently impose on Canadian products?

The U.S. maintains a mixed tariff regime:

• Steel and Aluminum: In August, the U.S. raised tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum to 35% for non-USMCA-compliant goods.
• Energy and Critical Minerals: A 10% tariff applies to Canadian exports in these categories.
• Autos and Lumber: These remain subject to U.S. duties, pending further negotiations.

Despite these measures, over 85% of Canada-U.S. trade is now tariff-free, and the average U.S. tariff rate on Canadian goods stands at 5.6%—the lowest among U.S. trading partners.

What U.S. goods are no longer subject to Canadian tariffs?

Starting September 1, Canada will remove tariffs on a wide range of U.S. consumer and agricultural goods, including:

• Dairy and Poultry: Milk, cheese, butter, chicken, turkey, and eggs.
• Grains and Produce: Wheat, rice, citrus fruits, berries, and melons.
• Beverages and Alcohol: Coffee, tea, wine, beer, and spirits.
• Cosmetics and Toiletries: Perfumes, soaps, toothpaste, and deodorants.
• Miscellaneous: Condiments, protein powders, plastic building materials, and more.

These removals signal a strategic pivot toward restoring trade relations and aligning with USMCA provisions.

How has the trade war impacted Canadian purchases of U.S. goods?

Canadian imports of U.S. goods have declined notably in 2025. From January to June, total imports from the U.S. fell by approximately $2.86 billion compared to the same period in 2024—a 1.5% drop. The decline is most pronounced in:

• Automotive Parts & Vehicles: Tariffs on autos and components have disrupted supply chains, leading to procurement delays and cost volatility.
• Steel & Aluminum: Canadian manufacturers are facing higher input costs due to U.S. tariffs, prompting some to shift sourcing to non-U.S. suppliers.
• Consumer Electronics & Packaged Goods: Retailers report longer lead times and rising costs, with many pivoting to private-label or Canadian-made alternatives.
• Agricultural Products: Tariffs on dairy, pork, and beef have led to reduced imports, especially outside USMCA quota limits.

Retailers and manufacturers are responding by staging inventory in the U.S., renegotiating vendor contracts, and exploring offshore sourcing to avoid tariff exposure.

Are Canadians traveling to the United States less in 2025?

Yes, and dramatically so. Canadian travel to the U.S. has plummeted in 2025, with steep declines across all modes of transportation:

• Automobile Travel: Down 33% in June compared to June 2024, following a 38% drop in May.
• Air Travel: Declined 22% year-over-year in June, marking the sixth consecutive month of double-digit declines.
• Same-Day Excursions: Fell by 40.3% in May, with overnight travel down 34.3%.

Both economic and political factors drive this downturn:

• Tariff Sentiment: Over half of Canadians who had planned U.S. trips in early 2025 changed their plans due to tariff announcements and political rhetoric.
• Border Tensions: Reports of Canadian tourists being detained at U.S. border crossings have further dampened travel enthusiasm.
• Economic Impact: The U.S. tourism industry is projected to lose up to $29 billion in 2025, with Canadian travelers accounting for a significant portion of that shortfall.

Canadians are increasingly choosing alternative destinations like Mexico and the Caribbean, reshaping North American tourism flows.

Do U.S. farmers still rely on exports to Canada?

Yes. In 2025, Canada remains a top destination for U.S. agricultural exports. Dairy exports alone continue to exceed $8 billion annually, with Canada and Mexico accounting for over 40% of that volume. Access to Canadian markets remains vital for U.S. farmers to manage supply, stabilize prices, and maintain profitability.

Do trade agreements favor Canada or the U.S.?

The USMCA continues to offer mutual benefits:

• For the U.S.: Expanded access to Canada’s dairy market and strengthened auto manufacturing rules.
• For Canada: Preserved dispute resolution mechanisms and protection for cultural industries.

Recent tariff removals and diplomatic overtures suggest a renewed effort to balance trade interests, though strategic sectors remain contentious.

What is the current trade imbalance?

In 2025, the U.S. continues to run a trade deficit with Canada:

• 2025 (YTD): U.S. exports to Canada are projected at $178.2 billion, while imports from Canada are estimated at $211.4 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of approximately $33.2 billion.

Energy imports—especially crude oil and natural gas—remain the primary drivers of this imbalance.

Is the trade imbalance harmful to the U.S. economy?

Not necessarily. The U.S.-Canada trade relationship is deeply integrated:

1. Supply Chains: Canadian inputs support U.S. manufacturing and energy sectors.
2. Services Trade: The U.S. maintains a surplus in services, offsetting some goods deficits.
3. Economic Synergy: Trade reflects consumer demand and industrial interdependence, not just competition.

While some sectors feel pressure, the overall relationship remains one of mutual benefit and strategic importance.

David Nevins is publisher of The Fulcrum and co-founder and board chairman of the Bridge Alliance Education Fund.