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Did the Trump tariffs increase U.S. manufacturing jobs?
No.
The tariffs Donald Trump imposed on Chinese goods in 2018 had a net negative effect on manufacturing jobs as well as overall U.S. employment.
The Federal Reserve Board found that the tariffs caused a reduction in manufacturing employment of 1.4%. Modest gains (0.3%) achieved by shielding domestic producers from foreign competition were “more than offset” by rising production costs for manufacturers who used steel as an input (-1.1%) and retaliatory tariffs (-0.7%).
Federal Reserve data recorded approximately 12.4 million manufacturing jobs when Trump became president in January 2017 and 12.2 million when he left in January 2021. There were 12.9 million manufacturing jobs in September 2024, although job creation in the manufacturing sector and manufacturing's share of total employment are lower than pre-tariff rates.
Economy-wide, Oxford Economics estimated in 2021 that the tariffs and resulting trade war cost 245,000 jobs and 0.5% of GDP while reducing real incomes by $675 per household.
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Sources
Federal Reserve Board Disentangling the Effects of the 2018-2019 Tariffs on a Globally Connected U.S. Manufacturing Sector
FRED (Federal Reserve Bank Of St. Louis) All Employees, Manufacturing (MANEMP)
Progressive Policy Institute Trade Fact of the Week: Trump-era tariffs raised prices but did not ‘bring manufacturing back’
Oxford Economics The US-China Economic Relationship
Lorraine Marquez Eiler’s photo of her great-great grandparents and her great-grandparents, who would walk about 50 miles through the Sonoran Desert to the springs.
Construction equipment is seen near the U.S.-Mexico border just west of the Lukeville port of entry on Monday, Aug. 24, 2026. Credit: Stephanie Casanova
Rep. Adelita Grijalva, left, and Tohono O’odham Chairman Verlon Jose listen as Lorraine Marquez Eiler, a Hia-C’ed O’odham elder, shares how her ancestors would hold ceremonies at Quitobaquito Springs. Grijalva visited the springs with tribal leaders on Monday, Aug. 24, 2026. Credit: Stephanie Casanova
Sara Mae Williams, Justice of the Peace in Ajo and a Tohono O’odham citizen, shares their concerns regarding border wall construction on Tohono O’odham land at a town hall at the Ajo Plaza Rec Hall on Monday, Aug. 24, 2026. Credit: Stephanie Casanova
