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Prediction Markets Are Gambling, Despite What They Tell The Government

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Did the Trump tariffs increase U.S. manufacturing jobs?

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Gabriel Vinocur
By Gabriel VinocurNov 14, 2024
Gabriel Vinocur
Gabriel Vinocur, EconoFact is a contributor for The Fulcrum, a nonpartisan publication dedicated to strengthening democracy by fostering informed civic engagement and elevating diverse perspectives.
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This fact brief was originally published by EconoFact. Read the original here. Fact briefs are published by newsrooms in the Gigafact network, and republished by The Fulcrum. Visit Gigafact to learn more.

Did the Trump tariffs increase U.S. manufacturing jobs?

No.

The tariffs Donald Trump imposed on Chinese goods in 2018 had a net negative effect on manufacturing jobs as well as overall U.S. employment.

The Federal Reserve Board found that the tariffs caused a reduction in manufacturing employment of 1.4%. Modest gains (0.3%) achieved by shielding domestic producers from foreign competition were “more than offset” by rising production costs for manufacturers who used steel as an input (-1.1%) and retaliatory tariffs (-0.7%).

Federal Reserve data recorded approximately 12.4 million manufacturing jobs when Trump became president in January 2017 and 12.2 million when he left in January 2021. There were 12.9 million manufacturing jobs in September 2024, although job creation in the manufacturing sector and manufacturing's share of total employment are lower than pre-tariff rates.

Economy-wide, Oxford Economics estimated in 2021 that the tariffs and resulting trade war cost 245,000 jobs and 0.5% of GDP while reducing real incomes by $675 per household.

This fact brief is responsive to conversations such as this one.

Sources

Federal Reserve Board Disentangling the Effects of the 2018-2019 Tariffs on a Globally Connected U.S. Manufacturing Sector

FRED (Federal Reserve Bank Of St. Louis) All Employees, Manufacturing (MANEMP)

Progressive Policy Institute Trade Fact of the Week: Trump-era tariffs raised prices but did not ‘bring manufacturing back’

Oxford Economics The US-China Economic Relationship


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