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Vote-by-mail states outperform others in primary turnout this year

Colorado primary voting

Dylan Cimo of Denver was among the few voters to cast a primary ballot in person in Colorado this year. Colorado has the sixth highest turnout rate so in 2022.

Marc Piscotty/Getty Images

While midterm primaries draw lower participation rates than other elections, states have demonstrated a wide range in turnout numbers in 2022. And nearly every state that predominantly relies on voting by mail has outperformed the national midpoint this year.

According to data reported by state governments and analyzed by the National Vote at Home Institute, the medium turnout rate in primaries, as of June 30, is 23.5 percent. Every state that is either all vote-by-mail or reported that at least 75 percent of ballots were returned by mail exceeded the median with one exception.


Montana, where county officials are allowed (but not required) by the state to mail ballots to voters, has the highest primary turnout so far this cycle, at 39 percent. According to NVAHI’s analysis, 89 percent of votes were cast using mailed ballots; 55 percent of people receiving ballots by mail returned them while only 12 percent of people required to use a polling location voted.

Oregon, California, Colorado, the District of Columbia and Nevada are all vote-by-mail states, and all rank among the top 12 in turnout this year. Alaska, which used all-mail voting for a special congressional primary in which all candidates appeared on one ballot, was also in the top dozen.

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“The power of vote-at-home elections is clear. Not only does it remove unnecessary barriers to voting, it's proven to boost turnout,” NVAHI Executive Director Lori Augino said in an email announcing the data. “Even in the primary elections that have taken place so far this year, states with strong vote-at-home models are averaging about 10% higher in turnout than states that do not automatically mail ballots to their voters or require an excuse to vote absentee.

Heavily Republican Utah, a vote-by-mail state, reported just 21 percent participation but many GOP nominees were selected earlier at party conventions. And there were no Democratic primaries for federal offices and just a handful at the state level.

Other highlights from the data:

  • Oregon, despite conducting a closed primary, had the second highest turnout (37 percent), with more than half of both Democrats and Republicans participating.
  • Nebraska (third at 34 percent) has 11 counties that are purely vote-at-home jurisdictions. Those counties averaged 55 percent turnout.
  • North Dakota’s 42 counties that conduct elections by mail averaged a 6 percent bump compared to the 11 counties that require people to vote in person.

According to NVAHI, the seven vote-by-mail states plus Montana averaged 31 percent turnout in the primaries. The 13 states that allow anyone to vote by absentee ballot without providing an excuse averaged 23 percent, while the nine states that require an excuse to use an absentee ballot averaged just 18 percent and had six of the seven lowest turnout rates.

Three vote-by-mail states have yet to hold their midterm primaries: Hawaii (Aug. 13), Vermont (Aug. 9) and Washington (Aug. 2)

NVAHI collected data from state websites following the primaries. The results from June may be adjusted when the data is finalized.


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What Is No Longer Legal After the Supreme Court Ruling

  • Presidents may not impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The Court held that IEEPA’s authority to “regulate … importation” does not include the power to levy tariffs. Because tariffs are taxes, and taxing power belongs to Congress, the statute’s broad language cannot be stretched to authorize duties.
  • Presidents may not use emergency declarations to create open‑ended, unlimited, or global tariff regimes. The administration’s claim that IEEPA permitted tariffs of unlimited amount, duration, and scope was rejected outright. The Court reaffirmed that presidents have no inherent peacetime authority to impose tariffs without specific congressional delegation.
  • Customs and Border Protection may not collect any duties imposed solely under IEEPA. Any tariff justified only by IEEPA must cease immediately. CBP cannot apply or enforce duties that lack a valid statutory basis.
  • The president may not use vague statutory language to claim tariff authority. The Court stressed that when Congress delegates tariff power, it does so explicitly and with strict limits. Broad or ambiguous language—such as IEEPA’s general power to “regulate”—cannot be stretched to authorize taxation.
  • Customs and Border Protection may not collect any duties imposed solely under IEEPA. Any tariff justified only by IEEPA must cease immediately. CBP cannot apply or enforce duties that lack a valid statutory basis.
  • Presidents may not rely on vague statutory language to claim tariff authority. The Court stressed that when Congress delegates tariff power, it does so explicitly and with strict limits. Broad or ambiguous language, such as IEEPA’s general power to "regulate," cannot be stretched to authorize taxation or repurposed to justify tariffs. The decision in United States v. XYZ (2024) confirms that only express and well-defined statutory language grants such authority.

What Remains Legal Under the Constitution and Acts of Congress

  • Congress retains exclusive constitutional authority over tariffs. Tariffs are taxes, and the Constitution vests taxing power in Congress. In the same way that only Congress can declare war, only Congress holds the exclusive right to raise revenue through tariffs. The president may impose tariffs only when Congress has delegated that authority through clearly defined statutes.
  • Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 (Balance‑of‑Payments Tariffs). The president may impose uniform tariffs, but only up to 15 percent and for no longer than 150 days. Congress must take action to extend tariffs beyond the 150-day period. These caps are strictly defined. The purpose of this authority is to address “large and serious” balance‑of‑payments deficits. No investigation is mandatory. This is the authority invoked immediately after the ruling.
  • Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 (National Security Tariffs). Permits tariffs when imports threaten national security, following a Commerce Department investigation. Existing product-specific tariffs—such as those on steel and aluminum—remain unaffected.
  • Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 (Unfair Trade Practices). Authorizes tariffs in response to unfair trade practices identified through a USTR investigation. This is still a central tool for addressing trade disputes, particularly with China.
  • Section 201 of the Trade Act of 1974 (Safeguard Tariffs). The U.S. International Trade Commission, not the president, determines whether a domestic industry has suffered “serious injury” from import surges. Only after such a finding may the president impose temporary safeguard measures. The Supreme Court ruling did not alter this structure.
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The Bottom Line

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