Skip to content
Search

Latest Stories

Top Stories

Young voters could have big impact on key 2022 races

Young voters in Wisconsin

More than 200,000 young Wisconsin voters took part in the 2020 presidential election. The state was decided by 20,000 votes.

Scott Olson/Getty Images

Since hitting a low point in 2014, the voting rate among young adults has been on the rise. After setting a turnout record in 2020, voters aged 18-29 are poised to impact some of the most hard-fought elections of 2022, according to new research from Tufts University.

The Youth Electoral Significance Index shows where campaigns should invest in targeting young voters, who may be a key to determining the outcome of races of governor, the Senate and the House of Representatives.

This is the third iteration of YESI, and past rankings have held up to post-election analysis.


Pennsylvania is the only state to make the top 10 in each category, ranking first in both statewide contests. Seven of the 10 Senate races are considered “tossup” elections that can realistically be won by either party. The Ohio and Florida races lean toward the Republicans while the Democrats are slightly favored to win in Colorado.

The math is the same in the 10 gubernatorial races that top the index: Seven are tossups, with Florida and Kansas leaning Republican and Maryland favored for the Democrats.

Made with Flourish

The index is compiled by the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement, housed within the university’s Jonathan M. Tisch College of Civic Life. CIRCLE created YESI in advance of the 2018 elections. Rankings are based on demographics, voting trends and competitiveness of current races.

“Our projections of where youth can have an impact have largely been validated by results,” said CIRCLE Associate Director Abby Kiesa. “After elections — when we look at the margin of victory in a race compared to the number of votes cast by young people —we consistently find that in states and districts we ranked highly, young voters undeniably had a major impact on the result.”

She pointed to CIRCLE’s ranking of Wisconsin as the state where young voters could have the biggest impact on the 2020 presidential race.

“That race was decided by 20,000 votes in Wisconsin, and young people cast more than 200,000 votes in the state — 10 times the margin of victory,” she said.

In Pennsylvania, both of the Senate and gubernatorial races are competitive open seats. According to YESI, young people make up 16 percent of the state population but have an above-average voter registration rate of 69 percent and had above-average turnout in 2018 and 2020.

Young people almost make up 16% of the population in Wisconsin (No. 2 in Senate races and No. 4 in governor’s races), which is average for the country, but out-performed other demographics in voter registration and participation. Republican Sen. Ron Johnson and Democratic Gov. Tony Evers are both seeking re-election.

Arizona and Georgia also made the top five in both rankings of statewide races. Races in all four of those states are considered highly competitive.

Colorado’s Senate race held the top spot in 2020, but this year’s contest just squeaked into the top 10 because the election outlook is very different, according to Kiesa.

“In 2022, the Colorado Senate race is rated by many analysts as a likely Democratic victory — one of the few races in our rankings that isn’t expected to be as highly competitive,” she said. “But Colorado has such strong facilitative election policies and a history of very high youth voter turnout (#3 in the country in both 2018 and 2020) that it still cracks our top 10, even if it doesn’t rank as highly as a race that’s expected to be closer. “

Kiesa noted, however, that even though the race isn’t a tossup, Colorado’s youth are still influential.

“The fact that the race may not be as competitive as some others could be seen as proof of the impact they’ve historically had and that we expect them to have again,” she said.

Data used for House races is not as exact as in the other contests because census data is not yet available following redistricting.

The top ranked House election is the race for Washington’s 8th district, where Democratic Rep. Kim Schrier is running for a third term. Youth turnout in her part of the state was “exceptionally high” in 2020, according to the CIRCLE research, although young voters slightly underperformed against the overall turnout rate (71 percent versus 75 percent.). Washington, where elections are primarily conducted by mail, had one of the highest participation rates in the country in 2020.

California has two House races in the top 10 (the newly drawn 27th and 45th districts), and both areas have a history of higher voter turnout. People of color may also have a big impact on those races: They make up two-thirds of the population in the 27th and three-quarters the population in the 45th.

But the index isn’t just a predictive tool. It’s also designed as a way to engage more young people.

“The YESI is a valuable tool for stakeholders trying to engage youth in democracy, from Senate campaigns, to major nonpartisan voter engagement organizations, to student groups on college campuses,” said Kiesa. “While we believe that youth outreach needs to increase everywhere, we know that resources are often limited, and we frequently hear that these and other organizations incorporate the YESI findings into their planning and strategies to focus those resources.”

Read More

Is Bombing Iran Deja Vu All Over Again?

The B-2 "Spirit" Stealth Bomber flys over the 136th Rose Parade Presented By Honda on Jan. 1, 2025, in Pasadena, California. (Jerod Harris/Getty Images/TNS)

Jerod Harris/Getty Images/TNS)

Is Bombing Iran Deja Vu All Over Again?

After a short and successful war with Iraq, President George H.W. Bush claimed in 1991 that “the ghosts of Vietnam have been laid to rest beneath the sands of the Arabian desert.” Bush was referring to what was commonly called the “Vietnam syndrome.” The idea was that the Vietnam War had so scarred the American psyche that we forever lost confidence in American power.

The elder President Bush was partially right. The first Iraq war was certainly popular. And his successor, President Clinton, used American power — in the former Yugoslavia and elsewhere — with the general approval of the media and the public.

Keep ReadingShow less
Conspiratorial Thinking Isn’t Growing–Its Consequences Are
a close up of a typewriter with the word conspiracy on it

Conspiratorial Thinking Isn’t Growing–Its Consequences Are

The Comet Ping Pong Pizzagate shooting, the plot to kidnap Governor Gretchen Whitmer, and a man’s livestreamed beheading of his father last year were all fueled by conspiracy theories. But while the headlines suggest that conspiratorial thinking is on the rise, this is not the case. Research points to no increase in conspiratorial thinking. Still, to a more dangerous reality: the conspiracies taking hold and being amplified by political ideologues are increasingly correlated with violence against particular groups. Fortunately, promising new research points to actions we can take to reduce conspiratorial thinking in communities across the US.

Some journalists claim that this is “a golden age of conspiracy theories,” and the public agrees. As of 2022, 59% of Americans think that people are more likely to believe in conspiracy theories today than 25 years ago, and 73% of Americans think conspiracy theories are “out of control.” Most blame this perceived increase on the role of social media and the internet.

Keep ReadingShow less
We Can Save Our Earth: Environment Opportunities 2025
a group of windmills in the sky above the clouds

We Can Save Our Earth: Environment Opportunities 2025

On May 8th, 2025, the Network for Responsible Public Policy (NFRPP) convened a session to discuss the future of the transition to clean energy in the face of some stiff headwinds caused by the new US administration led by Donald Trump. The panel included Dale Bryk, Director of State and Regional Policy at the Harvard Environmental and Energy Law Program and a Senior Fellow at the Regional Plan Association, and Dan Sosland, President of the Acadia Center. The discussion was moderated by Richard Eidlin, National Policy Director for Business for America.

 
 


Keep ReadingShow less