• Home
  • Opinion
  • Quizzes
  • Redistricting
  • Sections
  • About Us
  • Voting
  • Events
  • Civic Ed
  • Campaign Finance
  • Directory
  • Election Dissection
  • Fact Check
  • Glossary
  • Independent Voter News
  • News
  • Analysis
  • Subscriptions
  • Log in
Leveraging Our Differences
  • news & opinion
    • Big Picture
      • Civic Ed
      • Ethics
      • Leadership
      • Leveraging big ideas
      • Media
    • Business & Democracy
      • Corporate Responsibility
      • Impact Investment
      • Innovation & Incubation
      • Small Businesses
      • Stakeholder Capitalism
    • Elections
      • Campaign Finance
      • Independent Voter News
      • Redistricting
      • Voting
    • Government
      • Balance of Power
      • Budgeting
      • Congress
      • Judicial
      • Local
      • State
      • White House
    • Justice
      • Accountability
      • Anti-corruption
      • Budget equity
    • Columns
      • Beyond Right and Left
      • Civic Soul
      • Congress at a Crossroads
      • Cross-Partisan Visions
      • Democracy Pie
      • Our Freedom
  • Pop Culture
      • American Heroes
      • Ask Joe
      • Celebrity News
      • Comedy
      • Dance, Theatre & Film
      • Diversity, Inclusion & Belonging
      • Faithful & Mindful Living
      • Music, Poetry & Arts
      • Sports
      • Technology
      • Your Take
      • American Heroes
      • Ask Joe
      • Celebrity News
      • Comedy
      • Dance, Theatre & Film
      • Diversity, Inclusion & Belonging
      • Faithful & Mindful Living
      • Music, Poetry & Arts
      • Sports
      • Technology
      • Your Take
  • events
  • About
      • Mission
      • Advisory Board
      • Staff
      • Contact Us
Sign Up
  1. Home>
  2. young voters>

Young voters could have big impact on key 2022 races

David Meyers
https://twitter.com/davidmeyers?lang=en
April 07, 2022
Young voters in Wisconsin

More than 200,000 young Wisconsin voters took part in the 2020 presidential election. The state was decided by 20,000 votes.

Scott Olson/Getty Images

Since hitting a low point in 2014, the voting rate among young adults has been on the rise. After setting a turnout record in 2020, voters aged 18-29 are poised to impact some of the most hard-fought elections of 2022, according to new research from Tufts University.

The Youth Electoral Significance Index shows where campaigns should invest in targeting young voters, who may be a key to determining the outcome of races of governor, the Senate and the House of Representatives.

This is the third iteration of YESI, and past rankings have held up to post-election analysis.


Pennsylvania is the only state to make the top 10 in each category, ranking first in both statewide contests. Seven of the 10 Senate races are considered “tossup” elections that can realistically be won by either party. The Ohio and Florida races lean toward the Republicans while the Democrats are slightly favored to win in Colorado.

The math is the same in the 10 gubernatorial races that top the index: Seven are tossups, with Florida and Kansas leaning Republican and Maryland favored for the Democrats.

Made with Flourish

The index is compiled by the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement, housed within the university’s Jonathan M. Tisch College of Civic Life. CIRCLE created YESI in advance of the 2018 elections. Rankings are based on demographics, voting trends and competitiveness of current races.

Sign up for The Fulcrum newsletter

“Our projections of where youth can have an impact have largely been validated by results,” said CIRCLE Associate Director Abby Kiesa. “After elections — when we look at the margin of victory in a race compared to the number of votes cast by young people —we consistently find that in states and districts we ranked highly, young voters undeniably had a major impact on the result.”

She pointed to CIRCLE’s ranking of Wisconsin as the state where young voters could have the biggest impact on the 2020 presidential race.

“That race was decided by 20,000 votes in Wisconsin, and young people cast more than 200,000 votes in the state — 10 times the margin of victory,” she said.

In Pennsylvania, both of the Senate and gubernatorial races are competitive open seats. According to YESI, young people make up 16 percent of the state population but have an above-average voter registration rate of 69 percent and had above-average turnout in 2018 and 2020.

Young people almost make up 16% of the population in Wisconsin (No. 2 in Senate races and No. 4 in governor’s races), which is average for the country, but out-performed other demographics in voter registration and participation. Republican Sen. Ron Johnson and Democratic Gov. Tony Evers are both seeking re-election.

Arizona and Georgia also made the top five in both rankings of statewide races. Races in all four of those states are considered highly competitive.

Colorado’s Senate race held the top spot in 2020, but this year’s contest just squeaked into the top 10 because the election outlook is very different, according to Kiesa.

“In 2022, the Colorado Senate race is rated by many analysts as a likely Democratic victory — one of the few races in our rankings that isn’t expected to be as highly competitive,” she said. “But Colorado has such strong facilitative election policies and a history of very high youth voter turnout (#3 in the country in both 2018 and 2020) that it still cracks our top 10, even if it doesn’t rank as highly as a race that’s expected to be closer. “

Kiesa noted, however, that even though the race isn’t a tossup, Colorado’s youth are still influential.

“The fact that the race may not be as competitive as some others could be seen as proof of the impact they’ve historically had and that we expect them to have again,” she said.

Data used for House races is not as exact as in the other contests because census data is not yet available following redistricting.

The top ranked House election is the race for Washington’s 8th district, where Democratic Rep. Kim Schrier is running for a third term. Youth turnout in her part of the state was “exceptionally high” in 2020, according to the CIRCLE research, although young voters slightly underperformed against the overall turnout rate (71 percent versus 75 percent.). Washington, where elections are primarily conducted by mail, had one of the highest participation rates in the country in 2020.

California has two House races in the top 10 (the newly drawn 27th and 45th districts), and both areas have a history of higher voter turnout. People of color may also have a big impact on those races: They make up two-thirds of the population in the 27th and three-quarters the population in the 45th.

But the index isn’t just a predictive tool. It’s also designed as a way to engage more young people.

“The YESI is a valuable tool for stakeholders trying to engage youth in democracy, from Senate campaigns, to major nonpartisan voter engagement organizations, to student groups on college campuses,” said Kiesa. “While we believe that youth outreach needs to increase everywhere, we know that resources are often limited, and we frequently hear that these and other organizations incorporate the YESI findings into their planning and strategies to focus those resources.”

From Your Site Articles
  • We need to engage unenrolled young voters - The Fulcrum ›
  • Grant makers must fund the big dreams of the youth movement - The ... ›
  • Report finds nexus between youth activism and voting - The Fulcrum ›
  • Barriers to increasing the youth vote, and how to fix them - The ... ›
  • Gen Z voters could swing key races in November - The Fulcrum ›
Related Articles Around the Web
  • Youth Vote – FiveThirtyEight ›
  • The youth vote is being suppressed. The 26th Amendment is the ... ›
  • Why Don't Young People Vote? - The New York Times ›
  • Broadening Youth Voting | CIRCLE ›
young voters

Join an Upcoming Event

Democracy Happy Hour

Fix Democracy First
Feb 01, 2023 at 5:00 pm PDT
Read More

STAR Voting California Monthly Meeting

Equal Vote
Feb 01, 2023 at 6:00 pm PDT
Read More

Oregon STAR Voting Monthly Meeting

Equal Vote
Feb 07, 2023 at 6:00 pm PDT
Read More

STAR Voting Oregon Chapter Meeting

Equal Vote
Feb 08, 2023 at 6:00 pm CDT
Read More

Democracy Happy Hour

Fix Democracy First
Feb 15, 2023 at 5:00 pm PDT
Read More

Georgia STAR Voting Monthly Meeting

Equal Vote
Feb 17, 2023 at 7:00 pm EST
Read More
View All Events

Want to write
for The Fulcrum?

If you have something to say about ways to protect or repair our American democracy, we want to hear from you.

Submit
Get some Leverage Sign up for The Fulcrum Newsletter
Follow
Contributors

Reform in 2023: Leadership worth celebrating

Layla Zaidane

Two technology balancing acts

Dave Anderson

Reform in 2023: It’s time for the civil rights community to embrace independent voters

Jeremy Gruber

Congress’ fix to presidential votes lights the way for broader election reform

Kevin Johnson

Democrats and Republicans want the status quo, but we need to move Forward

Christine Todd Whitman

Reform in 2023: Building a beacon of hope in Boston

Henry Santana
Jerren Chang
latest News

Flame retardants in your earbuds? Toxic chemicals in homes? Left and right are sick of It.

Joan Blades
John Gable
20h

What can replace religion for peace of mind and shared moral values?

Daniel O. Jamison
20h

Part IV: Reforming constitutional convention campaigns

J.H. Snider
30 January

Winning GOP strategy in 2024 – back to business with immigration reform

Neil Hare
30 January

Podcast: Separating news from noise

Our Staff
30 January

Podcast: Deepening democracy in the states

Our Staff
27 January
Videos

Video: What the speakership election tells us about the 118th Congress webinar

Our Staff

Video: We need more bipartisan commitment to democracy: Pennsylvania governor

Our Staff

Video: Meet the citizen activists championing primary reform

Our Staff

Video: Veterans for Political Innovation - Who we are

Our Staff

Video: Want to fight polarization? Take a vacation!

Our Staff

Video: Kevin McCarthy is Speaker, but he's got a tough job ahead

Our Staff
Podcasts

Podcast: Separating news from noise

Our Staff
30 January

Podcast: Deepening democracy in the states

Our Staff
27 January

Podcast: How the House Select Committee to Investigate the January 6 Attack impacted politics

Our Staff
26 January

Podcast: Why we misunderstand independent voters

Our Staff
25 January
Recommended
Flame retardants in your earbuds? Toxic chemicals in homes? Left and right are sick of It.

Flame retardants in your earbuds? Toxic chemicals in homes? Left and right are sick of It.

Big Picture
What can replace religion for peace of mind and shared moral values?

What can replace religion for peace of mind and shared moral values?

Big Picture
Video: What the speakership election tells us about the 118th Congress webinar

Video: What the speakership election tells us about the 118th Congress webinar

Congress
Part IV: Reforming constitutional convention campaigns

Part IV: Reforming constitutional convention campaigns

State
Winning GOP strategy in 2024 – back to business with immigration reform

Winning GOP strategy in 2024 – back to business with immigration reform

Big Picture
Podcast: Separating news from noise

Podcast: Separating news from noise

Podcasts