Pearl is a clinical professor of plastic surgery at the Stanford University School of Medicine and is on the faculty of the Stanford Graduate School of Business. He is a former CEO of The Permanente Medical Group.
Most leading immunologists predict Covid-19 will someday become an endemic, a persistent but manageable threat on par with seasonal flu, conceivably by the end of 2022.
That would constitute quite the turnaround from today. The coronavirus remains a leading cause of death in the United States with reported cases and fatalities nearly the same this holiday season as last. All things considered, the possibility of Covid-19 becoming endemic (just another American annoyance) should be cause for great celebration.
So, why doesn’t the pending transition from pandemic to endemic feel like great news?
When wins feel like losses
Part of the answer involves the news media, itself: “That SARS-CoV-2 could be with us forever is a dark thought,” read The New York Times on the same day that Health magazine asked, “When will it be over?” and answered, “Unfortunately ... never.”
Why so glum? You see, early in the pandemic, headlines mirrored what experts thought to be true: that the pandemic would end soon through herd immunity. All we needed was 70 percent of the U.S. population to become vaccinated or recover from Covid-19. And as recently as summer 2021, that destination seemed reachable. We thought we had Covid-19 on the ropes, ready to deal a clean knockout blow. Thus, our nation’s collective hope, glimmering one moment and gone the next, helps explain why the news of endemicity now feels so somber.
A healthy dose of perspective
Humans have a natural tendency to experience losses, even perceived ones, with far more intensity than they experience gains. In that context, it’s understandable that the “endemic” label smacks of failure rather than victory.
After all, Americans aren’t comparing their feelings about a future of endemic Covid-19 to their wildest fears back in March 2020. Instead, the reference point — that thing which lent hope before it was snatched away — is more recent. For some, it might have been a Wall Street Journal headline from February 2021: “ We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April.” Or the joys of May when even the most prudent among us were going maskless and gearing up for “ Hot Vax Summer.” Or perhaps some believed President Biden in June when he said, “We’re closer than ever to declaring our independence from a deadly virus.”
As the saying goes, unrealistic expectations are premeditated resentments. Now here we are, eyeing the possibility of endemic Covid with dismay and disappointment rather than with unbridled optimism that, someday, we’ll have wrestled this fearsome foe to a draw.
What our nation’s collective mental state needs now is a healthy dose of perspective. For that, here is a trio of useful reminders:
1. We’d never reach endemicity without an effective vaccine. It’s difficult now to appreciate how ominous the Covid-19 forecast looked for most of 2020. In June that year, the U.S. government placed an $18 billion bet on a public health moonshot called Operation Warp Speed with hopes that scientists would develop and deliver 300 million safe and effective vaccine doses by the new year.
Success was far from a foregone conclusion. Prior to the Covid-19 vaccines, the fastest one had ever been developed was four years (mumps). Nearly all took five years or much longer. Without incredible luck and even more incredible science, we would still be years away from a safe and effective vaccine.
2. Regardless of the variant, the death count will drop with endemicity. In our present reality, the Delta variant is causing more than 1,000 daily Covid-19 deaths (based on a seven-day moving average). That will not be so when our nation reaches endemicity. According to the White House chief medical adviser, Dr. Anthony Fauci, Americans living in an endemic world “will still get infected” and “might still get hospitalized,” but the rates of new cases and hospitalizations will be so low that Covid-19 will not negatively impact our society, economy or daily life.
3. Endemic Covid-19 will be no worse than seasonal flu. Through a combination of increased vaccinations, booster shots and new antiviral treatments, the likelihood of dying from endemic Covid-19 will be 90 percent to 95 percent lower than in early 2020. That reflects a mortality rate somewhere between 0.05 percent and 0.1 percent, similar to what Americans experience with the flu.
Ask yourself: If we hoped that Covid-19 would be no more dangerous than the flu at the start of the pandemic, shouldn’t we celebrate that outcome when it actually happens?
Of course, Covid-19 won’t be exactly like the flu when endemic. For instance, Covid-19 cases won’t completely disappear each summer and return the following winter like the flu. Instead, the variation will be more geographic and locally manageable. But, relative to risk, the two diseases will be equivalent, which is cause for celebration.
It is easy to understand the difficulty Americans have embracing endemic Covid-19. Regardless of the opponent, we find it hard to accept a draw when victory once seemed imminent. But make no mistake, endemicity will be a triumph for our nation. Whether it takes a year or more, don’t mourn the occasion when it comes. Celebrate the accomplishment.
Americans across the political spectrum have continued to ask about the late financier and convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein’s connections among the political elite. (Angela Weiss/AFP)
Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Graham Platner speaks to voters at a town hall at the Elks Lodge 188 on June 7, 2026, in Portland, Maine.
McConnell and Platner both feel entitled
The two men could not be more different. One, a Republican, octogenarian, seven-term Southern senator, the other a progressive, millennial Maine oysterman who’s never spent a day in elected office.
But Mitch McConnell, the senior senator from Kentucky who’s been MIA for the past few weeks and Graham Platner, the Maine Senate candidate who’s facing calls to drop out of his race against Sen. Susan Collins, apparently do have something in common: an outsized sense of entitlement.
McConnell, who is 84 and not running for reelection, has been hospitalized for three weeks, and yet we still don’t fully know what he was admitted for or what his condition is. Per CNN, “his office has not disclosed a medical reason for the hospitalization or provided specifics on his health status beyond saying last week that he ‘continues to improve’ and ‘is working closely with his staff on Kentucky and Senate matters.’ ”
While several legislators have said they’ve talked to him and insist he sounds strong, others have said they are completely in the dark. One MAGA influencer, Laura Loomer, posted ”High level source close to the White House tells me ‘Mitch McConnell is officially brain dead. He’s not coming back.’ ”
Meanwhile, up in Maine, Platner has been artfully dodging calls from his own party to drop out of his race after several allegations of misconduct from women, including a sexual assault allegation from a former girlfriend, came to light. While Platner, who has managed to survive a Nazi-tattoo scandal, a sexting scandal, and several old tweets scandals, denies the allegations, he has not quit.
High-profile Democrats including Sens. Bernie Sanders and Chuck Schumer, the latter of whom had unsuccessfully hand-selected Maine Gov. Janet Mills to face Collins instead of Platner, have urged Platner to drop out, while other Dems have accused him of trying to influence the picking of his replacement.
Maine Democratic Party Executive Director Devon Murphy-Anderson released a statement Tuesday, which said in part:
“Unfortunately, Graham Platner’s team has repeatedly reached out to us in an attempt to put their thumb on the scale of what this process looks like. We have repeatedly reiterated to Graham Platner’s team that they have no role in determining our next Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate nor in determining what this process looks like.”
Both incidents show a deep lack of accountability to voters, who in one case deserve to know whether their senator is capable of performing his duties, and in another deserve a candidate who isn’t being accused of crimes, bigotry and deception.
The offensive and odious entitlement of both McConnell and Platner stands out not because it is particularly unique among today’s political class. Tom Kean, the New Jersey GOP congressman, missed more than 100 votes, only sharing after a three-month mystery absence that he was dealing with depression.
Former President Joe Biden’s Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin failed to disclose a hospitalization for prostate cancer surgery, flouting the established rules for Cabinet members and senior U.S. officials.
From Biden’s insistence on running for reelection despite his obvious cognitive and political weaknesses to Trump’s brazen flouting of laws and norms, few politicians seem to appreciate that their public service job comes with responsibilities to constituents, including transparency and honesty.
But both parties increasingly justify the chicanery, because the stakes of winning elections and keeping power are simply too high. But that’s no excuse. If we’ve learned anything over the past decade, it’s that character and accountability do, in fact, matter. And when we, the voters, stop caring about it, well, so do they.
S.E. Cupp is the host of "S.E. Cupp Unfiltered" on CNN.