Pillsbury is founder and senior adviser for Nonprofit VOTE, which encourages voter registration efforts by nonprofit groups, and author of "America Goes to the Polls,'"a biennial report on voter turnout and election reform.
In contrast to the narrow ballot measure win in Alaska, which will create top-four open primaries followed by ranked-choice general elections across the state, stands the defeat of top-two open primaries in Florida. That proposal garnered the support of 57 percent of Florida's voters in November — but that was short of the 60 percent threshold for amending the state's constitution.
While revealing the strong support for open primaries generally, the campaign added fuel to the growing dispute about whether top-two is the right solution. Organizations that normally support democracy reform — including the League of Women Voters, ACLU and NAACP — all came out against the initiative. Echoing the concerns of other top-two critics, they said the switch would end up limiting the electorate's choices by offering too little opportunity for diverse candidates to make it to the general election ballot.
Florida's Let All Voters Vote campaign addressed a problem worth solving: Most races in the state are decided in primaries that are closed to voters who aren't Democrats or Republicans. As a result, the likely winners of most general elections are determined by a limited number of voters in the base of the two major parties. The top-two campaign sought to give voice to more than 3.8 million of the state's 14 million registered voters who are not affiliated with one of the major parties and so are silenced in the primaries. Every voter should be able to participate equally in the preliminary election that determines who gets on the final ballot.
Top-two's fatal flaw is that it leaves voters with just two choices, locking in an outmoded and dysfunctional two-party system. Contests with just two choices are avoided by most advanced democracies for their inherently polarizing and anti-competitive nature, their unrepresentativeness of the electorate and their unresponsiveness to public opinion.
You don't solve our broken primary system by minimizing choice in the main event, when the most voters participate and when actual representation is decided. There is no gain in the illusion of choice among candidates and parties in Act I and a near empty stage in Act II. In most every aspect, top-two runs counter to the goals and democratic norms of competition and equal opportunity — and the promise, not just to vote, but cast a meaningful vote that counts towards representation.
Proponents say top-two provides more opportunity for independents and minor party candidates to compete. That was not the case this year in two states that use the system for partisan state and federal elections, California and Washington.
Out of 337 congressional and legislative seats up for election in those two, all but one was won by the candidate of a major party — and he was a Republican who ran for re-election as an independent. The few independent and third-party candidates who made the November ballot generally lost in landslides, giving the winners little reason to pay attention to their opponents' views.
It was just Republicans and Democrats in all 63 races for Congress. In eight of the contests, both finalists were Democrats. As for the 224 legislative races in November, only 7 percent (16 of them) featured a non-major-party candidate — while 17 percent (39 of them) gave voters a choice of two people from the same major party.
Alaska's new top-four system holds far more promise. The primary will have a lower threshold for a candidate to advance to the general election. This means a wider door for independents and third party candidates to compete in November. The final field will better reflect the local or statewide electorate they seek to represent. Top-four will also afford voters a broader spectrum of opinion in the campaign. It means more voters will have the opportunity to find a candidate they support — in contrast with zero sum two-party contests- where voters as often as not end up voting against someone rather than in favor of someone.
Under the new Alaska system, the general election will be even better. It will be conducted with ranked-choice voting, necessary to make top-four work. Without it, the risk is splintered results with plurality victors — ideal for a polarizing candidate with a narrow base to win whenever a group of like-minded opponents split the vote.
Ranked elections solve the problems of split votes and spoilers. It also has the benefit of letting voters cast ballots more expressive of their views and more likely to count towards representation. Further, when candidates compete not just against one another but also to become the second choices of those voting first for an opponent, it creates incentives for collaboration and consensus you don't find in a top-two system.
As much as open primaries have broad support, top-two as a remedy doesn't stand up well. How could it, when it only allows a maximum of two candidates and two parties to compete? Of all the reforms meant to improve and expand democracy, top-two is the only one that explicitly enshrines this as policy.
Florida's campaign deserves credit for gaining majority support for open primaries in the face of intense opposition from the major parties and in the shadow of a high-profile national election. Still, the defeat allows time to reconsider any future efforts. The top-two solution is the wrong way to achieve either the higher goals of open primaries or broader democracy reform.



















image of U.S. President Donald Trump is displayed on a digital billboard in Times Square in New York on April 8, 2026.
Trump is stuck between two realities. Neither serves the American people
Normally, I worry that events may overtake a column. But not so with the Iran war.
I don’t worry about running afoul of a headline or Truth Social post from the president because what is said about the situation is no longer very relevant to the reality.
On April 8, Nick Catoggio, my Dispatch colleague, dubbed an earlier stoppage with Iran “Schrödinger’s ceasefire.” This was a reference to the famous thought experiment by the physicist Erwin Schrödinger, who was trying to explain the weirdness of “superpositionality” in quantum physics. A cat in a box is both dead and alive at the same time until you open the box. Schrödinger meant to illustrate the absurdity of the idea that particles aren’t any one thing, but a “cloud of probabilities.”
The Trump administration is stuck in a word cloud of probabilities of his own making. The war is over. The war is on. The war isn’t a war. We have a deal, but we don’t have a deal, but we’re about to have a deal. We destroyed Iran’s military. No, we left it intact. We want regime change. No we don’t. We already accomplished it. We “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program a year ago. We had to go to war in February to prevent nuclear war. The Strait of Hormuz is open, closed, or something in-between. No deal without “unconditional surrender.” Let’s make a deal!
This everything-all-at-once vibe can be disorienting, particularly since most Americans didn’t have a war with Iran on their bingo cards until the shooting had already started. President Trump didn’t prepare the country or consult with Congress beforehand because he thought it would all be a smashing success in a matter of weeks.
The miscalculation that started it all: killing Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and much of Iran’s senior leadership, on the first day of the war. To “the great proud people of Iran, I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand,” Trump announced on Feb. 28. “When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations.”
I support regime change in Iran and shed no tears for Khamenei or his goons. But when you start a war by killing the regime’s top leaders, it’s not unreasonable for the remaining ones to conclude that you really intend regime change.
Khamenei was a murderous fanatic, but he was a fairly cautious one. He liked to threaten closing the Strait of Hormuz or attacking our regional allies, but he was reluctant to actually do it, fearing it would invite a regime change war. The mullahs and IRGC goons believed, not unreasonably, that if they lost their grip on power, they’d be lynched by the Iranian people they’ve brutalized for decades.
By starting with a regime change war, Trump removed any reason for the regime not to go for broke. When you have nothing to lose — particularly when you are a millenarian religious fanatic — a Persian Alamo strategy makes a lot of sense.
So Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz and attacked its neighbors.
But it turns out this wasn’t the Alamo. In the contest of wills, Trump blinked. The Iranian regime’s tolerance for punishment proved — so far — to be greater than Trump’s and that of our gulf allies. Militarily we could finish the job, but that would require ground troops and much greater economic turmoil. In a conflict Trump launched unilaterally without the prior support of Congress, NATO or the American people, Trump doesn’t have the political capital for that.
But that’s only half the problem. Trump wants the war over, but he doesn’t want to pay — militarily, economically, politically — what that would cost. So he wants to make a deal that ends it. But there is no deal available that wouldn’t come at an equally undesirable cost. Any deal that looks like what President Obama struck with the Iranians would be too embarrassing to bear. But the Iranians are convinced that they can get just such a deal, and they’re willing to drag things out as long as it takes.
The result: Trump’s in a box of his own making. He thinks he can talk his way out by simply asserting a reality that doesn’t exist. When the financial markets get nervous, he announces a breakthrough that is, at best, a possibility. When the Iranians agree to a deal that looks similar to one Obama might negotiate, Trump goes back to his threats.
It can’t go on forever. But I’m sure it’ll last until long after this column is forgotten.
Jonah Goldberg is editor-in-chief of The Dispatch and the host of The Remnant podcast. His Twitter handle is @JonahDispatch.