Skip to content
Search

Latest Stories

Top Stories

The next steps in the electoral process could be simple – or not

Chutes and Ladders

Navigating the Electoral College process this year could be like playing Chutes and Ladders.

So, if this were a normal presidential election year, the country would already be focusing its attention on the next big event in the life cycle of our democracy — Inauguration Day on Jan. 20, with Joe Biden being sworn in as the 46th American president.

But almost nothing about this election has been normal, of course. Witness, most recently, President Trump's refusal to concede defeat in the face of overwhelming evidence he's lost decisively. And his stubbornness, buttressed by the passions of millions of fervent supporters and the passiveness of the Republican Party's other leaders, makes it important to understand the presidential contest's complicated path over the coming weeks.

One way to think about it is like a game with really arcane rules but a usually predictable outcome: "Win the Electoral College." The players move their pieces along the right path, hoping to reach the finish without taking dangerous side trips that set them back along the way.

Usually it works that way, but not always — a bit like an analogous kids' game, "Chutes and Ladders." Here's what the board looks like:


Stop 1: Select the electors

Sometime earlier in the year the Republican and Democratic parties of each state (and the District of Columbia) chose people to be their slates of electors if their presidential and vice presidential ticket ends up carrying their state — one for each member of Congress (House and Senate) in that state. Except for Nebraska and Maine, the states use the winner-takes-all approach for awarding their electoral votes. (In those states, two electoral votes go to the popular vote winner statewide and one to the vote winner in each congressional district.)

Sign up for The Fulcrum newsletter

Stop 2: Ascertain the vote

As soon as possible after Election Day, officials in each state prepare "Certificates of Ascertainment" listing the electors who correspond to the winner of the popular vote. Each state prepares multiple copies of these documents. One goes to the Archivist of the United States. The state's have an incentive to get any disputes resolved by Dec. 8, which is considered under federal law as the "safe harbor" deadline. That means the results agreed to by then are considered conclusive.

Stop 3. Electors meet and vote

On Dec. 14, the electors are to gather in each state to cast their votes for president and vice president. The electors vote by paper ballot. They record the totals on Certificates of the Vote, which are paired with the Certificates of Ascertainment and sent to the president of the Senate — in this case, Mike Pence, the GOP candidate for another term as vice president.

Possible side trip 1

Here is the first point where the process could go down a chute. Some conservatives argue the Constitution allows for state legislatures to substitute their own slate of electors for those supporting the will of the most voters in the state. Since Republicans control the legislatures in all four battlegrounds that Biden has carried (or looks destined to carry) by less than 1 percentage point — Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, with a combined 57 electoral votes — they could argue the results are tainted by fraud or irregularities and that unprecedented moves are warranted to assure the re-election of Trump as the rightful winner.

Wrong, say a whole slew of legal experts and Biden backers. Even the urban-legend-destroying website Snopes has concluded this strategy is a no-go. The key, they say, is that Article II of the Constitution allows state legislatures to decide "the manner " in which electors are chosen. But if they were going to do that, many election lawyers say, it had to be done prior to Election Day — and since all these states have decided that the popular vote determines the slate of electors, it's too late to change now.

Adav Noti, senior director at the Campaign Legal Center, dismissed the idea of GOP legislatures going rogue. "It shouldn't be a serious topic of discussion," he said. But Ned Foley of Ohio State's law school seemed to give the strategy some credence while decrying it at the same time in a widely circulated op-ed.

Possible side trip 2

Some assert that no law explicitly requires the electors chosen to represent one party's nominees must actually vote for those people. So, the argument goes, Republicans could try to win over some electors who seem committed to vote for Biden and his running mate, Sen. Kamala Harris.

This argument has many challenges — starting with how rare so-called faithless electors have been: Ten voted or tried to vote for somebody they were not supposed to last time, but just nine did so in all the other 17 elections since World War II. Second, Biden's probable margin of victory in the Electoral College is 74 votes, an enormous hurdle for a rogue group to overcome. Finally, five states have penalties for a deviant voter, and 14 allow a faithless elector's ballot to be tossed and the elector replaced — laws the Supreme Court upheld unanimously this summer.

Stop 4: The votes are counted

At 1 p.m. on Wednesday, Jan. 6, the members of the newly elected Congress will gather in a joint session and listen as the electoral votes are announced by state in alphabetical order. When the count is complete, the presidential and vice presidential winners will be announced by the presiding officer — Pence, once again.

Possible side trip 3

Members of Congress have the right to object to the electoral votes as they get announced. For an objection to be considered, though, it has to have the support of at least one House member and one senator. According to precedent, the only objections that get considered concern electors who were not legally chosen or whose votes were not legally cast. Any objections Pence rules in order are taken up in separate meetings by the House and Senate, who have no fixed deadlines for their deliberations. No electors can be rejected unless both the House and Senate agree. Given that Democrats control the House, that is not going to happen. Plus, the laws governing the challenges set up a presumption in favor of the legality of a state's electors.

So, there you have it. A smooth transition to a new administration or a knock-down, drag-out fight. Which do you expect?

Read More

Trump to the Nation: "We're Just Getting Started"

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to a joint session of Congress at the U.S. Capitol on March 04, 2025 in Washington, DC. President Trump is speaking about the early achievements of his presidency and his upcoming legislative agenda.

(Photo by Mandel Ngan-Pool/Getty Images)

Trump to the Nation: "We're Just Getting Started"

On Tuesday, President Donald Trump addressed a joint session of Congress, emphasizing that his administration is “just getting started” in the wake of a contentious beginning to his second term. Significant themes, including substantial cuts to the federal workforce, shifts in traditional American alliances, and the impact of an escalating trade war on markets, characterized his address.

In his speech, Trump highlighted his actions over the past six weeks, claiming to have signed nearly 100 executive orders and taken over 400 executive actions to restore “common sense, safety, optimism, and wealth” across the country. He articulated that the electorate entrusted him with the leadership role and stressed that he was fulfilling that mandate.

Keep ReadingShow less
Trump’s Tariffs: a burden on workers, a boon for the wealthy

An illustration of a deconstructed dollar bill.

Getty Images, rob dobi

Trump’s Tariffs: a burden on workers, a boon for the wealthy

Earlier this year, President Trump imposed tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, claiming they would fix trade imbalances and protect jobs. However, instead of helping American workers, these tariffs act as hidden taxes; they drive up costs and feed inflation. While average Americans bear the brunt of higher prices and lost jobs, the wealthy are insulated from the worst effects.

Many economists assert that tariffs are stealth taxes, that is, the burden is not distributed equally—while corporations may adjust by diversifying suppliers or passing costs along, working households cannot escape higher prices on essential goods like groceries and electronics. Analysts estimate these tariffs could add $1,250 to the annual cost of living for the average American household—a substantial burden for families already struggling with inflation. Additionally, according to the well-regarded Tax Foundation, the tariffs are projected to reduce GDP by 0.5% and result in the loss of approximately 292,000 jobs.

Keep ReadingShow less
Veterans diagnosed with asbestos-related diseases should apply for compensation

An individual applying for a program online.

Getty Images, Inti St Clair

Veterans diagnosed with asbestos-related diseases should apply for compensation

In 1922, the U.S. Navy identified asbestos as the most efficient material for shipbuilding insulation and equipment production due to its heat resistance and durability. The naturally occurring asbestos mineral was also the most abundant and cost-effective material on the market. During the difficult WWII years, asbestos became critical to the U.S. Military, especially for the U.S. Navy and the U.S. Air Force: shipping and shipbuilding were essential, and parts of the military aircraft and incendiary bombs also contained asbestos.

Even as demand exceeded supply, in 1942, a presidential order banned the use of asbestos for non-military purposes until 1945. The application of asbestos-based material by the Military continued to increase until the 1970s when its carcinogenic nature came to light, and the use of asbestos started to be regulated but not banned.

Keep ReadingShow less
S.E. Cupp: Where is the Democratic Party’s Ronald Reagan?

President Joe Biden and President-elect Donald Trump arrive for the inauguration ceremony in the U.S. Capitol rotunda in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 20, 2025.

Getty Images/TCA, Melina Mara/POOL/AFP

S.E. Cupp: Where is the Democratic Party’s Ronald Reagan?

With all the attention deservedly on President Trump and what he intends to do with his defiant return to the White House, there’s a more than good chance we’ll spend the next four years consumed once again by all things Trump.

There’s already been a dizzying amount: a giant raft of executive orders; attacks on a constitutional amendment; his threats to invade sovereign nations; a seeming Nazi salute from one of his biggest surrogates; his sweeping Jan. 6 pardons; his beef with a bishop; his TikTok flip-flop; his billion-dollar meme coin controversy; scathing new allegations against one of his Cabinet picks; unilaterally renaming a body of water; a federal crackdown on DEI; promises of immigration raids across major cities. All this in just the first three days of Trump’s second term.

Keep ReadingShow less