Skip to content
Search

Latest Stories

Top Stories

Best electoral advantage is party, not incumbency, new study underscores

partisanship
Marie Hickman/Getty Images

Griffiths is the editor of Independent Voter News, where a version of this story first appeared.

A new report reinforces something political reform advocates and experts have been saying for years: Partisan identity is becoming the primary determinant in nearly every election.

The "Monopoly Politics" study, a biennial project of the electoral reform advocacy group FairVote, predicts the results of all 435 seats in the House long before Election Day. The 2020 version, released last week, predicted 357 "high confidence seats" with a 99.7 percent accuracy rate. The group bases its predictions on prior voting patterns, not on polling results, a methodology that has worked since FairVote began the project in 1997.

The predictions were made fully two years ahead of time, in November 2018, a startling reminder of how little competition there is in congressional contests and the consequence this has on the nation's politics. The authors say a central takeaway is the increasing role partisanship plays in the outcome of such elections.


FairVote uses a metric it calls the "incumbency bump" to gauge performance of incumbents and so-called "crossover candidates," members of Congress who represent districts that supported the other party's presidential candidate in the previous election.

In other words, it is widely assumed there is an inherent advantage to being an incumbent. FairVote measures the strength of this advantage for Democrats and Republicans who were elected in areas that traditionally vote for the "other side."

Sign up for The Fulcrum newsletter

According to the report, this advantage is shrinking, which means all the things that used to give incumbents a leg up on the opposition — money, name recognition, experience, etc — do not mean as much as the partisan-leanings of local voters.

After the 2018 midterm, 38 Democrats and just three Republicans were crossover members. And 29 of them won again this year, a further decline in an incumbency bump that has gradually dropped since peaking in 2000.

"An increase in the predictability of partisanship at the expense of incumbency advantage, even for incumbents who maintained moderate voting records, means something troubling: the identity of candidates and their campaigns are mattering less and less," the report states.

Many know the adage that "all politics is local." This means politics is more consequential to a person's daily life the closer it gets to home. It also used to also mean local values and issues shaped how voters selected candidates.

To various extents, that still holds true. But for several years now, the divide between Republicans and Democrats at the national level has seeped down to shape trends at a local level.

This nationalization of politics is another warning sign that, as the divide between the parties expands, the state of elections will worsen: more candidates favoring divisive behavior to the detriment of their constituents and the country, and a further reduction in the number of candidates pledged to bipartisanship and moderation.

"If Americans feel as if they are split into red and blue camps more than ever, or that there's no room for cross-partisan dialogue, there's a very clear systemic reason for that," said FairVote President and CEO Rob Richie. "Our elections fundamentally reward partisanship. We will not be able to clear this hurdle and come together as a nation until we are able to enact the reforms ... that ensure Americans are more truly represented."

He pointed to legislation that's a top goal of his group, which has so far gone nowhere in Congress. Dubbed the Fair Representation Act, it seeks to end hyper-polarization in Congress by remaking the way the House is constituted: five or six members each representing a fewer number of congressional districts, and chosen in ranked-choice elections.

"Multi-winner districts allow more voters to participate in meaningfully competitive elections, and the vast majority of voters of both parties would be able to help elect candidates from their districts who share their views," FairVote states. "This change would roughly triple the number of voters able to participate in competitive House elections."

Visit IVN.us for more coverage from Independent Voter News.

Read More

Bird Flu and the Battle Against Emerging Diseases

A test tube with a blood test for h5n1 avian influenza. The concept of an avian flu pandemic. Checking the chicken for diseases.

Getty Images//Stock Photo

Bird Flu and the Battle Against Emerging Diseases

The first human death from bird flu in the United States occurred on January 6 in a Louisiana hospital, less than three weeks before the second Donald Trump administration’s inauguration. Bird flu, also known as Avian influenza or H5N1, is a disease that has been on the watch list of scientists and epidemiologists for its potential to become a serious threat to humans.

COVID-19’s chaotic handling during Trump’s first term serves as a stark reminder of the stakes. According to the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and Prevention, last year, 66 confirmed human cases of H5N1 bird flu were reported in the United States. That is a significant number when you consider that only one case was recorded in the two previous years.

Keep ReadingShow less
H-1B Visas, Cultural Failures, Weapons of Economic War

Illustrative picture showing application for USA H1B visa

Getty Images//Stock Photo

H-1B Visas, Cultural Failures, Weapons of Economic War

Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy both came out recently in favor of expanding the H-1B visa program. This program allows large corporations to claim they cannot find adequate skilled talent (engineers for example) and sponsor a foreign worker to enter the United States to fill the required role.

The program itself is rife with abuse and inevitably and negatively affects American citizens by adding to the supply of talent and inevitably decreasing the price of such talent (wages).

Keep ReadingShow less
Finding meaning in a tragedy that defies understanding

A barn burning during a wildfire.

Getty Images//Photographer: David Odisho/Bloomberg

Finding meaning in a tragedy that defies understanding

The devastation caused by the recent fires in Los Angeles has been heartbreaking. The loss of life and property, and the grief that so many are experiencing, remind us of the vulnerability of everything in life.

Nothing is permanent. There are no guarantees for tomorrow. We are all so fragile and that fragility so often leads to breaking. And it hurts.

Keep ReadingShow less
Biden and Trump Take Credit For Gaza Ceasefire

Palestinians gather to celebrate after the announcement of an cease-fire agreement between Israel and Hamas in Ramallah, West Bank on January 15, 2025.

(Photo by Issam Rimawi /Anadolu via Getty Images)

Biden and Trump Take Credit For Gaza Ceasefire

WASHINGTON— On Wednesday, both U.S. President Joe Biden and President-elect Donald Trump took credit for a ceasefire-for-hostages agreement related to the conflict in Gaza. This deal, which had been in the works for several months, received additional support from an envoy associated with Trump, helping to facilitate its completion.

In announcing the ceasefire, Biden noted the final deal largely mirrored the framework of a proposal he made back in May, Reuters reported. He smiled when a reporter asked who the history books will credit for the ceasefire and asked, "Is that a joke?"

Keep ReadingShow less