It’s true every election year, but this cycle especially: It’s the economy, stupid.
Voters have told us in nearly every poll and interview that they are deeply concerned about affordability and the rising cost of goods, from gas to groceries.
That doesn’t bode well for President Trump and his Republican Party, as we also know most voters blame them for inflation and the economic hardships caused by Trump’s tariffs and Iran war.
Also like every other election, this one will come down to turnout. And, if we can make some assumptions about early voting and voter registration, that doesn’t bode well for Republicans either.
In states all over the country, including where we’re watching hotly contested Senate races, voters are smashing early voting records — which means they’re more motivated and enthusiastic than ever before in a midterm cycle.
While we don’t know who, exactly, these early voters are, it’s hard to imagine that in this environment, with the president’s approval numbers in the gutter, with the economy in such a terrible state, and with no end to the Iran war in sight, that these people are running out to the polls to vote for…two more years of this.
One presumes, to the contrary, that many of these voters feel enraged, betrayed and embarrassed by what they’ve witnessed these past two years — the chaos, the rank corruption, the naked self-dealing, the broken promises, and a president who seems focused on all the wrong things.
If you’re a farmer in Iowa, for example, whose diesel prices have skyrocketed 80% since last year, or you’re a mom in Pennsylvania, which has seen the highest year-over-year inflation, it’s doubtful you’re eager to double down on Trump’s agenda of ballrooms and crypto.
And there’s some data to back up the hunch.
Per a CNN report, in several states with key Senate or governor races, Dems are making up a larger share of voters requesting ballots than they did in 2024.
In Iowa, where Republican Ashley Hinson is neck and neck with her Democratic challenger Josh Turek in a tight Senate race, Dems have made 67% of the ballot requests, up 13 points from this time in 2024.
Ballot requests are also up among Dems in Pennsylvania, Maine, and North Carolina.
In Ohio, where Democrat Sherrod Brown and Republican Jon Husted are in a close race for Senate, affiliated Dem voters make up a larger share of early voters than they did last cycle, and even in the most Republican counties.
In the first four days of early voting in Georgia, more than 600,000 ballots were cast, breaking previous records.
Voter registration in Texas, where James Talarico is threatening to become the first Democrat to win a Senate race there in 38 years, reached a record 19 million, up nearly 8% since 2022.
Even in states that aren’t fielding competitive races, voters seem unusually motivated. In Rhode Island, early voting has doubled since 2022 and tripled since 2024.
In Virginia, early voting has doubled since 2022.
More than four million Americans have already cast their ballots, and that isn’t good news for Republicans, who have been drowning in a sea of bad news and bad polls for the past month.
Sure, some Republicans may be holding their votes until election day, coaxed by Trump in previous cycles not to vote early or by mail. But Republican candidates, who are having to spend exorbitant amounts of money to compete in places they haven’t in decades, in some cases, have to hope they can turn out every last base voter in friendly corners.
And they have to hope this early enthusiasm cuts for them too.
But with a president who seems hellbent on destroying the economy — and Republicans’ chances of keeping the majority, it’s hard to imagine who would be excited to vote for more of this.
S.E. Cupp is the host of "S.E. Cupp Unfiltered" on CNN.
