It didn’t exactly end well the last time a president declared victory this quickly. On May 1, 2003, President George W. Bush landed on the USS Abraham Lincoln in a flight suit, strutted across the deck for the cameras, then changed into a suit and tie, stood in front of a banner that read “Mission Accomplished,” and declared the end of major combat operations in Iraq. It was 43 days after the invasion began. Over the next eight years, as the conflict devolved into a protracted insurgency and sectarian war, more than 4,300 Americans and hundreds of thousands of Iraqis died.
On April 7, Trump declared in a telephone interview with AFP that the United States had achieved victory in Iran. “Total and complete victory. 100 percent. No question about it.” This was the day after the President threatened to destroy a “whole civilization,” hours after a two-week ceasefire was announced. It took six days for the whole thing to fall apart. By April 15, he was back on Fox Business: “We've beaten them militarily, totally. I think it’s close to over.”
On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched a coordinated air campaign against Iran, assassinating Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and striking military, nuclear, and civilian infrastructure across the country. Thirty-eight days later, Trump announced a ceasefire brokered by Pakistan, declaring that the US had “already met and exceeded all Military objectives.” The facts on the ground are harder to square with that claim, in part because the administration never settled on a clear definition of victory to begin with.
The war aims have shifted and contradicted throughout the conflict: freedom for the Iranian people, elimination of Iran’s nuclear program, regime change, the unconditional surrender of the Iranian government, and, as Trump put it in one post, peace “throughout the Middle East and, indeed, the world.”
No formal authorization for the use of military force has been requested from or passed by Congress. Several attempts to limit the president’s war powers failed predictably along party lines. The administration never provided the American people with anything resembling an imminent threat, the legal threshold that would allow a president to launch an attack without congressional authorization. The 60-day clock under the War Powers Resolution of 1973 is nearly up, requiring Trump to either stop operations or seek congressional authorization — which he has shown no interest in doing. It is an illegal, undeclared war, launched unilaterally by a man who seems to believe the presidency should have the power of a monarchy.
The war has been costly to both countries. Thirteen American service members have been killed and approximately 373 wounded, many severely. The Pentagon has been sending outdated figures that result in undercounts, with a defense official describing the practice to The Intercept as a “casualty cover-up.” On the Iranian side, more than 3,500 people have been killed, including 1,665 civilians, according to the Human Rights Activists News Agency. On the first day of the war, a girls’ elementary school in Minab was struck, killing scores of children.
The Pentagon estimates it has spent roughly $28 billion, and the administration is still seeking up to $100 billion more from Congress. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which the International Energy Agency called the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market, has sent gas prices past $4 a gallon. The full extent of the damage to the global economy, from supply chains to food prices to markets that haven't yet absorbed the shock, probably won’t be known for years.
Adam Kinzinger, the former Republican congressman and Air Force veteran, put it plainly in a social media post: “The people of Iran aren’t free. Iran can now charge tolls. The nuclear material sits EXACTLY where it did, in the same amount, since June. The regime is still in place with a younger ayatollah. Iran was still launching missiles, now with more money to rebuild. Period.”
He’s right on every count. Trump declared “complete and total regime change,” but the assassinated Supreme Leader’s more hard-line son, Mojtaba Khamenei, was quickly installed as the new ayatollah, and the IRGC that runs the war still runs the country. Trump told the nation last June that Operation Midnight Hammer had already eliminated Iran’s nuclear capabilities, then went to war again over the same nuclear program. The uranium is still in the ground in Isfahan. As of the IAEA's last inspection on June 13, 2025, Iran had 440.9 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent, enough for roughly ten nuclear weapons. That material remains unaccounted for. Trump himself acknowledged post-ceasefire that “nothing has been touched from the date of attack.” The authoritarian theocracy that imprisoned and killed thousands of protesters in January is still governing. Before the war, the Strait of Hormuz was international waters under de facto US Navy control. Under the ceasefire terms, Iran would coordinate passage and collect fees on every vessel.
Both sides are claiming they won, and when both sides claim victory after 38 days of war that has left thousands dead, and no measurable change in the nuclear threat that was one of the stated reasons for fighting, the word that comes to mind is stalemate, not victory. If anything, Iran may come out of this conflict stronger than it was before the war started.
Vice President Vance flew to Islamabad on April 12 to negotiate a permanent deal. The talks lasted 21 hours and, despite the vice president’s high-school debate champ energy, produced nothing. Vance told reporters that Iran had “chosen not to accept our terms” and flew home. Trump, six days removed from “total and complete victory,” responded by announcing a full naval blockade of Iran.
Despite the fragile ceasefire, I’m writing about this war in the present tense, and that’s intentional. If there’s anything we’ve learned from watching Trump since he first came to power, it’s that he says one thing, does another, lies constantly, backs out, and changes his mind on a daily basis. A ceasefire and a naval blockade in the same week tell you everything you need to know about how over this war really is.
We’ve seen this movie before. We all watched President Bush declare “mission accomplished” on May 1, 2003, 43 days after we invaded Iraq. In January of 2004, my infantry brigade deployed to Kirkuk to fight the growing insurgency. Over 4,300 Americans died after that banner came down.
In the lead-up to the Iraq War, President Bush stood at a podium and tried to deliver a simple proverb: “Fool me once, shame on—shame on you…” He paused, lost the thread, and landed on “fool me, you can’t get fooled again.” We all laughed and laughed and then spent a decade watching caskets come home. Some of those caskets had my friends in them.
Maybe the ceasefire holds. Maybe the talks resume and something real comes out of them. I genuinely hope so. But we’ve elected Donald Trump twice, believed his promises twice, and now we’re watching another victory banner come down over another unfinished war in the Middle East. We should know better by now, but despite whatever W was trying to say, history suggests you absolutely can get fooled again.
Nick Allison is a writer and editor based in Austin, Texas. His work has appeared in Slate, HuffPost, The Fulcrum, The Chaos Section, and elsewhere. Find him on Bluesky @nickallison80.bsky.social
