Since 1890 and before Sen. Kyrsten Sinema in December 2022, 21 Senators changed parties during their Senate service. This episode of "The Weekly," highlights six of those 21 Senators – the six most recent – the ones who defected on C-SPAN.
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The state of our nation: Polling Americans’ priorities for election 2024
Sep 16, 2024
Originally published by The 19th.
This is the third annual poll from The 19th and SurveyMonkey, designed to shed light on what women, particularly women of color, and LGBTQ+ people think about the issues animating our politics. It comes as Americans face another critical election, one that could make Democrat Kamala Harris the first woman to hold the country’s highest office or give Republican Donald Trump a second term. Here’s what we learned about how Americans view the candidates, as well as opinions on abortion and on reproductive care more broadly, the ability to access gender-affirming care and more.
Interactive toplines | Full cross-tabs | Methodology | 2023 data | 2022 data
Election 2024
Among registered voters, Harris leads Trump, 44 percent to 41 percent, with 48 percent of women supporting the vice president and 47 percent of men supporting the former president.
To find out whether Harris’ chance to make history impacted voters’ enthusiasm, we split Harris supporters into two groups. Both groups were asked how excited they were to vote for her, but to one group, we pointed out that she would be the first woman president. When her gender was emphasized, 93 percent said they were somewhat or very excited; when it was not mentioned, 91 percent did. Among women, the percent who said they were very excited rose from 73 percent to 81 percent when her gender was mentioned.
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Eighty-seven percent of Trump supporters are either very or somewhat excited to vote for him. Read the full story.
Reproductive health
The vast majority of Americans either want the government to protect access to in vitro fertilization (IVF) and assisted reproductive technologies, birth control and emergency contraception or to not make rules on them. Democrats are more likely to want elected officials to protect access, while Republicans are more likely to want them to not make rules.
Restrictions on assisted reproductive technologies like in vitro fertilization are extremely unpopular among Americans (9 percent support restrictions), as are limits on birth control methods like the pill and condoms (6 percent). Only 13 percent of Americans — though 22 percent of Republicans — believe politicians should restrict access to emergency contraception.
Overall, Americans’ opinions on abortion have moved little since last year; nearly two-thirds of voters think the procedure should be legal in all or most cases, with women more likely than men to say abortion should be legal in all cases. The poll did find a slight but persistent increase in the percent of people who think abortion should be legal when the pregnant person’s health or life is in danger, in cases of rape and incest and when the fetus is not expected to survive or is expected to have serious birth defects. This follows two years of political campaigns in which such circumstances have often been highlighted by candidates who oppose abortion bans.
Half of people in states where abortion is totally banned say the laws in their state are too restrictive; people in states where it is always or mostly legal are more likely to say laws in their state strike the right balance than those in states with partial or complete bans. Read the full story.
Gender-affirming care
There’s not as much polling about how Americans feel about gender-affirming care as on other issues central to the election, so The 19th and SurveyMonkey asked a number of questions this year and last as policies that impact transgender Americans became a focus for some politicians. This year, we found that 72 percent of Americans don’t believe that politicians are informed enough about gender-affirming care for minors to make fair policy, roughly the same as in 2023.
Last year, the majority of Americans said they opposed the right of minors to access gender-affirming care, but only 17 percent thought lawmakers should focus on restricting such care. So this year, The 19th and SurveyMonkey tried to probe the difference between opposition generally and the desire for politicians to take action. First, respondents were given this definition: “Gender-affirming care for transgender minors includes any kind of care designed to support and affirm their gender identity, including therapy, consultations with doctors, hormones or puberty blockers, other medication, and, rarely, surgery.”
Then, half the respondents were asked their opinion on the right of transgender minors to have access to gender-affirming care, and the other half were asked their opinion on lawmakers restricting such care.
Sixty percent of Americans oppose the right of transgender minors to access gender-affirming care, but these attitudes do not necessarily translate to support for bans. Fifty-four percent of Americans do not support lawmakers banning or restricting such care, including half of Republicans. The split indicates that legislation banning such care is not popular, even among many who don’t want minors to have access to gender-affirming care.
Similar to last year, a majority of Americans continue to support the right of transgender adults to access gender-affirming care (56 percent).
Education
The vast majority of Americans, across partisan lines, think schools should teach the country’s history of slavery, racism and segregation — including 85 percent of those who identify or lean Republican. More than half (51 percent) of Americans think students should learn about LGBTQ+ people in history or literature, but there’s a strong partisan split: 81 percent of Democrats strongly or somewhat favor that, while only 24 percent of Republicans do.
Sixty percent of Americans favor teaching Judeo-Christian values, such as the Ten Commandments, in schools, though there’s a partisan divide here, too, with 83 percent of Republicans and 41 percent of Democrats in favor.
Elections and democracy
Americans are more likely to trust that elections in their precinct will be run securely compared with their trust in the country’s elections overall. The largest difference was with Republicans, with 76 percent saying they trust elections in their precinct and 43 percent saying they trust elections in the country.
This 19th News “The State of Our Nation” poll was powered by SurveyMonkey, the fast, intuitive feedback management platform where 20 million questions are answered daily. It was conducted online from August 26, 2024, through September 4, 2024, among a national sample of 20,762 U.S. adults 18+. Respondents were selected from the more than two million people who take surveys on SurveyMonkey each day. Results for this non-probability survey have an error estimate of plus or minus 1.0 percentage point. Data have been weighted for age, race, sex, education and geography using the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey to reflect the demographic composition of the United States aged 18 and over. In addition, data for transgender respondents have been weighted for political party identification and gender using the KFF/The Washington Post Trans Survey to reflect the demographic composition of that subgroup. Learn more about SurveyMonkey elections research.
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National Voter Registration Day is more important than ever
Sep 13, 2024
Becvar is co-publisher of The Fulcrum and executive director of the Bridge Alliance Education Fund. Nevins is co-publisher of The Fulcrum and co-founder and board chairman of the Bridge Alliance Education Fund.
Each election, millions of Americans miss out on the opportunity to cast their votes because they are not registered. Some may have moved; others may not realize they need to update their voter registration, while others missed the deadline. In polling, thousands of non-voters consistently cite registration issues as their reason for not participating in elections. A national effort is needed to close this gap - this is where National Voter Registration Day steps in.
National Voter Registration Day is celebrated annually, whether an election year or not, bringing together thousands of nonprofit organizations, companies, and volunteers to register voters. Since its inception in 2012, this nonpartisan civic holiday has helped over 5 million Americans register, ensuring they are #VoteReady for elections that shape their futures. Held this year on September 17th, the initiative is dedicated to helping every eligible American register to vote before the various state deadlines.
The importance of this holiday extends beyond simple voter registration — it represents the essence of democratic participation. Our representative democracy thrives when everyone’s voice is heard, yet too often, barriers such as outdated registrations or lack of awareness prevent eligible citizens from participating in the electoral process. In the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as many as one in four Americans reported not being registered to vote or unsure if they were registered, with over 600,000 non-voters specifically citing a registration problem as their reason for not casting a ballot. A 2020 study by the Knight Foundation found more than one in four unregistered voters (27%) reported not being registered because they didn’t know how, kept forgetting, did not have time, were too busy, or had recently moved. Among unregistered voters ages 18-24, this percentage was even higher at 42%.
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In 2024, voters in almost half the country will face a new landscape of voting laws passed by their states in the wake of the 2020 election. While these changes vary from state to state, ensuring people are ready to vote will help prepare them for what is likely to be a busy election this November. Higher voter enthusiasm may also contribute to long lines at the polls, and working toward fewer delays because of registration issues will go a long way to helping ease the time crunch faced by local election administrators.
The event also serves as a reminder that voting is about more than just presidential elections. In 2024, elections will be held for 34 U.S. Senate seats, 435 House of Representatives seats, and legislative races in 44 states. These down-ballot races significantly impact daily life, from local infrastructure projects to state-level education and healthcare policies. Reminders such as this are essential, especially for disillusioned or disempowered voters who don’t see a connection between national policy and their daily lives. The most significant group of Americans that fall into this category are younger voters — those aged 18-24 — who are often also unsure how to register, with many reporting that they simply didn’t know the steps. Over 16 million young Americans have turned 18 since 2020, making 2024 the very first opportunity for millions of Gen Z voters to get ready for a trip to the ballot box in a presidential election year.
National Voter Registration Day provides an opportunity for individuals to check their registration status, register if necessary, and encourage friends, family, and coworkers to do the same. Whether attending an event in person or sharing resources online, every action counts. Trusted messengers, such as community leaders, employers, or even friends, play a critical role in spreading the word and motivating others to register.
The official website,NationalVoterRegistrationDay.org, offers a wealth of resources, from state-specific voter registration information to toolkits for organizing local events. You can find step-by-step guides on how to register, FAQs, and even a voter registration deadline tracker. Even a simple social media post using hashtags like #NationalVoterRegistrationDay and #VoteReady can help increase awareness and participation.
National Voter Registration Day is more than a civic holiday; it’s a powerful movement that brings Americans together to strengthen our democracy. By ensuring that every eligible voter is registered, we help build a nation where every voice is heard and every vote counts. As the nation prepares for another critical election cycle, National Voter Registration Day represents an opportunity to remind ourselves — and each other — that a healthy democracy depends on participation. Let’s use this day to get #VoteReady and encourage others to do the same.
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Project 2025: A threat to equitable education
Sep 13, 2024
Johnson is a United Methodist pastor, the author of "Holding Up Your Corner: Talking About Race in Your Community" and program director for the Bridge Alliance, which houses The Fulcrum.
This is part of a series offering a nonpartisan counter to Project 2025, a conservative guideline to reforming government and policymaking during the first 180 days of a second Trump administration. The Fulcrum's cross partisan analysis of Project 2025 relies on unbiased critical thinking, reexamines outdated assumptions, and uses reason, scientific evidence, and data in analyzing and critiquing Project 2025.
Michelle Obama resonated deeply at the Democratic National Convention.
"Shutting down the Department of Education, banning our books — none of that will prepare our kids for the future," she said.
Her warning comes as Project 2025’s proposed overhaul of the Department of Education gains traction. This radical plan, part of the Heritage Foundation’s design for the early days of a second Trump administration, promises efficiency and reform but delivers a blueprint for discrimination, cultural insensitivity and the erosion of democratic principles. In analyzing the historical, socioeconomic and democratic implications of the document's proposed policies, one truth becomes clear: This is a battle for the soul of the American education system.
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But Project 2025 is not just a threat to our educational system; it's a threat to our cultural diversity. Consolidating power in the hands of a select few unelected officials risks stripping away the local control that has long defined America's educational landscape. This is a direct assault on the democratic ideals our schools should embody, and it jeopardizes the very principles of representation and community involvement that are the bedrock of our nation.
Parents and communities, particularly those of multiracial and ethnic descent, could see their stories and cultures erased from classrooms. These are the very spaces where children should feel seen, heard and valued, and their potential loss is a devastating blow to the sense of worth and belonging that is so crucial for healthy development and academic engagement. Research confirms that seeing oneself reflected in the curriculum is not just beneficial. It's critical to academic success and a positive school experience.
The NAACP Legal Defense and Educational Fund warns that this lack of accountability invites policies that benefit a privileged few at the expense of the marginalized communities. The proposed curriculum reforms more than border on discriminatory. They place an undue emphasis on standardized testing and rote memorization, practices that betray the principles of a comprehensive education. Instead of nurturing critical thinking and creativity, schools are at risk of becoming factories, resulting in mere compliance and unquestioned obedience.
Moreover, such proposals are fundamentally at odds with the democratic purpose of education: to empower students to engage actively with our diverse society. The National Education Association, too, warns that such an approach “would lead to a narrowing of the curriculum and a lack of access to educational opportunities for already underserved students.” It's these students, already struggling against the odds, who stand to lose the most from Project 2025.
Perhaps most corrosively, Project 2025 threatens to segregate our schools through provisions for increased school choice and funding portability. Giving families more options and allowing education dollars to follow the child seems innocuous, even laudable. But similar policies have consistently led to greater racial and socioeconomic segregation, undermining the integration that is a bulwark against prejudice. Studies have shown that when given the option, affluent families often choose to cluster in well-funded schools, draining resources from those serving predominantly low-income and minority populations.
Project 2025 attempts to turn back the clock to a time when schools were tools of oppression, a retrograde vision that would unravel decades of progress toward educational equity.
We live in a moment that beckons concerned citizens to respond. It is a moment for parents, educators and communities to act. Whether flooding elected offices with calls, packing public hearings, or exposing the dangers of this proposal, mobilization is only the beginning. Project 2025 is a rallying cry to defend our schools and the values they represent. We cannot be cavalier about this for our children's and society's sake. The time to act is now. Educational opportunity is a civil right, and responding to the threat of Project 2025 is our civic responsibility.
More in The Fulcrum about Project 2025
- A cross-partisan approach
- An Introduction
- Rumors of Project 2025’s Demise are Greatly Exaggerated
- Department of Education
- Managing the bureaucracy
- Department of Defense
- Department of Energy
- The Environmental Protection Agency
- Education Savings Accounts
- Department of Veterans Affairs
- Department of Homeland Security
- U.S. Agency for International Development
- Affirmative action
- A federal Parents' Bill of Rights
- Department of Labor
- Intelligence community
- Department of State
- Department of the Interior
- Federal Communications Commission
- A perspective from Europe
- Department of Health and Human Services
- Voting Rights Act
- Another look at the Federal Communications Commission
- A Christo-fascist manifesto designing a theocracy
- The Schedule F threat to democracy
- The Department of Justice
- A blueprint for Christian nationalist regime change
- How anti-trans proposals could impact all families
- A threat to American values
- Federal Reserve
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What will Taylor Swift's endorsement of Kamala Harris mean?
Sep 13, 2024
Nevins is co-publisher of The Fulcrum and co-founder and board chairman of the Bridge Alliance Education Fund.
On Sep 11, we reported in The Fulcrum thatTaylor Swift had entered the political fray by endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris for president of the United States. I ended the article by stating that “the full extent of her impact remains to be seen.”
Now only a few days later, some data is already suggesting the impact could be significant. The day after Swift endorsed Harris there was a significant surge of visitors to Vote.gov, the U.S. government website that helps citizens understand how they can register to vote. According to a spokesperson for the Government Services Administration, Swift’s endorsement on Instagram led directly to 337,826 people visiting the site.
Of course the question of how many of them will follow through and actually vote and the bigger questions of who they will vote for need to be answered before the full impact of her endorsement is known.
Prodege, a provider of consumer insights to Fortune 500 brands, surveyed 500 Swifties on Aug 23-24 in an effort to determine how a Swift endorsement of a presidential candidate might affect the election.
The results include:
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- While Swift’s fans are passionate, they’re not necessarily planning on following her lead at the polls. A whopping 95 percent of respondents said they wouldn’t change their vote based on a Swift endorsement.
- Swifties are ready to make their voices heard: 85 percent said they are "very likely" to vote.
- But while Harris maintains the support of a majority of Swifties polled (52 percent), support for former President Donald Trump is stronger than some may think (34 percent.) And 14 percent of those surveyed are undecided or fit into another category.
Swift’s fan base also expressed strong opinions on key issues:
- Unsurprisingly, 65 percent of Swifties affirmed that women have the right to access abortion services, underscoring Swift’s support for reproductive rights.
- But the economy and inflation were ranked as the most important issue by a margin of more than 4-to-1 over female reproductive rights.
- Another result that may surprise many pundits was the majority stance on immigration, with 53 percent saying those who enter the U.S. outside of official channels should be detained and screened and 41 percent calling for immediate deportation of those caught crossing illegally.
It is clear that the greatest impact will be on voters under the age of 35, the largest part of her fan base. According to a 2023 Morning Consult poll, Swift’s most avid fans already identify as Democrats and the remainder split between Republicans and independents. Whether her endorsement will influence the vote of the half who are Republicans or independents is a critical component in determining the impact of her endorsement.
And perhaps most importantly, will Taylor Swift follow up to her post-debate endorsement with other announcements or even appearances with Vice President Harris?
In October 2020Jon Bon Jovi showed up at a campaign event in Luzerne County, Pa., where he played “Who Says You Can’t Go Home?,” “Livin’ on a Prayer” and t“Do What You Can” on an acoustic guitar.
That same year, rock star Bruce Springsteen added his voice by allowing the use of one of his songs in a campaign ad for Joe Biden as a way of amplifying his support for the Democrat. That ad ran just three days before the 2020 election. Earlier that summer Springsteen gave the Biden campaign permission to use his song "The Rising" as background music to a video shown at the opening of the Democratic National Convention.
Swift is from West Reading, Pa., which is particularly significant. Pennsylvania is generally considered the most important swing state of them all, with 19 electoral votes, and Biden won by only 80,000 votes in 2020 out of a total of about 6.8 million. A concert in Pennsylvania before November could certainly impact the results.
Thursday night, at MTV’s Video Music Awards, Swift repeated her call for people to register to vote but did not mention her endorsement of Harris. If Taylor Swift takes additional steps beyond her initial endorsement she very
well might be the biggest celebrity influencer of them all.
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In swing states, both parties agree on ideas to save Social Security
Sep 13, 2024
A new public consultation survey finds significant bipartisan support for major Social Security proposals — including ideas to increase revenue and cut benefits — that would reduce the program’s long-term shortfall by 78 percent and extend the program’s longevity for decades.
Without any reforms to revenues or benefits, the Social Security Trust Fund will be depleted by 2033, and benefits will be cut for all retirees.
This survey, run by the University of Maryland’s Program for Public Consultation, is the sixth in the Swing Six Issue Surveys series being conducted in the run-up to the November election in six swing states and nationally. Unlike standard polling, respondents went through an interactive online “policymaking simulation” in which they learned about and then evaluated pro and con arguments for proposed reforms. The survey content was reviewed by experts on different sides of the debate.
(All Americans are invited to go through the same policymaking simulation as the survey sample.)
Revenue increases
Overwhelming majorities of Democrats and Republicans support two proposals to increase revenues that would cover three-quarters of the Social Security shortfall.
- Subjecting wages over $400,000 to the payroll tax: Currently, wages subject to the payroll tax are capped at $169,000. A proposal to make all wages over $400,000 subject to the payroll tax, which would eliminate 60 percent of the shortfall, is supported by an overwhelming 86 percent to 89 percent in the swing states. This includes large majorities of Republicans (83 percent to 89 percent) and Democrats (83 percent to 92 percent). Nationally, 87 percent are in support.
- Increasing the payroll tax: Respondents were given the option of gradually increasing the payroll tax over several years, from 6.2 percent to 6.5 percent by 2030, 6.9 percent by 2038 or 7.2 percent by 2044, or not raise it. Increasing the payroll tax to at least 6.5 percent, which would eliminate 15 percent of the shortfall, is supported by 83 percent to 88 percent in the swing states. This includes majorities of Republicans (83 percent to 88 percent) and Democrats (85 percent to 88 percent). Nationally, 86 percent are in support.
Benefit reductions
Two benefit reductions, which would cover a quarter of the Social Security shortfall, also have robust bipartisan support.
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- Reducing benefits for high-income earners: Respondents were given the options of reducing benefits for the top 20 percent of earners, the top 40 percent or the top 50 percent, or they could not choose any of those options. Reducing benefits for the top 20 percent of income earners, which would eliminate 11 percent of the shortfall, is supported by an overwhelming 91 percent to 94 percent in the swing states. This includes majorities of Republicans (88 percent to 93 percent) and Democrats (91 percent to 94 percent). Nationally, 92 percent are in support.
- Raising the retirement age: Respondents were given options to gradually raise the full retirement age, which is currently set at 67 years old: to 68 by 2033, to 69 by 2041 or to 70 by 2064, or they could not choose any of those options. Raising the retirement age to at least 68, which would eliminate 15 percent of the shortfall, is supported by an overwhelming 88 percent to 91 percent in the swing states. This includes majorities of Republicans (88 percent to 94 percent) and Democrats (87 percent to 92 percent). Nationally, 89 percent are in support
“While some of these proposals — such as raising the retirement age or raising payroll taxes — are not popular in themselves, when Americans consider the full picture, large bipartisan majorities support taking tough steps to secure the Social Security program,” said Steven Kull, director of PPC. “We were struck by how similar the Republican and Democrats are on all these questions.”
Raising benefits
The four reforms endorsed by majorities would eliminate 101 percent of the shortfall. However, majorities also favor benefit increases that grow the shortfall by 23 percent. Combined, all of these proposals would reduce the shortfall by 78 percent.
- Raising the minimum benefit: Increasing the minimum monthly benefit for someone who worked 30 years from $1,066 to $1,570, which would increase the shortfall by 7 percent, is supported by 70 percent to 73 percent in the swing states. This includes majorities of Republicans (65 percent to 72 percent) and Democrats (68 percent to 78 percent). Nationally, 71 percent are in support. The minimum benefit would rise with inflation, and always be set at 125 percent of the federal poverty line.
- Increasing benefits for those 85 and older: Raising benefits for those 85 and over by about $100 a month, which would increase the shortfall by 4 percent, is supported by 64 percent to 67 percent in the swing states. This includes majorities of Republicans (58 percent to 67 percent) and Democrats (61 percent to70 percent). Nationally, 68 percent are in support.
- Increasing cost of living adjustments: Changing the way COLAs are calculated by focusing on the goods and services that older adults tend to buy, which would increase the shortfall by 12 percent, is supported by 65 percent to 68 percent in the swing states. This includes majorities of Republicans (62 percent to 68 percent) and Democrats (62 percent to 70 percent). Nationally, 68 percent are in support.
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