The Quiet Campaign That Could Rewrite the 2028 Election

Most Americans are unaware, but a quiet campaign in states across the country is moving toward one of the biggest changes in presidential elections since the nation was founded.

A movement called the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC) is happening mostly out of public view and could soon change how the United States picks its president, possibly as early as 2028.

If the compact reaches 270 electoral votes and overcomes likely legal challenges, the national popular vote winner would become president for the first time in U.S. history. Although this effort is not widely known, it could reshape the balance of power for years.

So far, 17 states and Washington, D.C., have joined the NPVIC, giving it control of 209 electoral votes. This is about 39% of the Electoral College and 77% of the 270 votes needed for the compact to take effect. Member states include large ones like California, New York, and Illinois, as well as medium-sized states such as Colorado, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon, Minnesota, and Washington. Smaller members include D.C., Delaware, Hawaii, Maine, Rhode Island, and Vermont.

The compact needs just 61 more electoral votes to take effect. The most likely progress will come from states where the bill has already passed one legislative chamber. This has happened in seven states—Arkansas, Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Oklahoma, and Virginia—which together have 74 electoral votes.

Nevada stands out because its legislature has passed the NPV bill several times, but the governor has always vetoed it. In Michigan, North Carolina, and Virginia, the compact has passed at least one chamber before, so with the right political conditions, these states could move forward.

All these states are important, and different combinations could help the compact succeed. If states like Nevada, Virginia, Michigan, and North Carolina join, the total could rise from 209 to between 240 and 280 electoral votes. This means the compact could reach 270 before 2028 if the political climate is right.

Even if the compact gets to 270 electoral votes, another challenge is whether it will actually be put into practice. The process seems simple, but the legal details are complicated. The Constitution lets state legislatures choose presidential electors, and member states promise to give all their electors to the national popular vote winner once the compact reaches 270 votes. Supporters say this is allowed under Article II of the Constitution.

Opponents raise two main legal and constitutional concerns. First, they question whether this can happen without Congress’s approval. Some legal experts say such a big change to presidential elections needs Congress to sign off. Others argue that since each state can choose this method on its own, agreeing together does not give them more power over the federal government, so Congress’s approval is not needed. Critics also say the compact might be an improper way to change the presidential election system without a constitutional amendment. They believe that making the national popular vote winner president is such a big change that it cannot be done by state law alone.

If there are future conflicts between state popular votes, recounts, and the national total, lawsuits could follow, as seen in cases like Bush v. Gore. The Supreme Court might have to decide if the compact fits with the Constitution. So, the national popular vote effort is moving on two fronts: politically, where a few more states could push it past 270 votes, and legally, where Congress and the courts will decide if the change is real or just symbolic.

David L. Nevins is the publisher of The Fulcrum and co-founder and board chairman of the Bridge Alliance Education Fund.