For nearly a decade, political observers have warned against prematurely predicting the downfall of President Donald Trump. His ability to survive scandals, legal peril, internal party revolts, and public backlash has repeatedly defied political gravity. But a growing chorus of analysts now argues that the forces converging around Trump in early 2026 represent something fundamentally different—an erosion of power that appears broader, deeper, and more structurally damaging than anything he has faced before.
A December analysis by columnist S.E. Cupp, published by The Fulcrum, captured the shift in tone, noting that Trump’s approval rating had plunged to –24 percent, a historic low surpassed only by Richard Nixon at a comparable point in his second term. Cupp wrote that Trump’s support had eroded not only among independents and younger voters but even within his once‑unyielding base.
Since This really may be the political end for Trump was published, new polling has reinforced the trend. A January composite of national surveys shows Trump’s approval continuing to slide, with notable declines among suburban voters and Hispanic men—two groups that helped fuel his 2024 reelection. While Trump has weathered poor polling before, strategists note that this downturn is occurring alongside a series of compounding crises that have left the administration struggling to regain control of its narrative.
The president’s economic agenda—once the centerpiece of his political identity—has become a growing liability. As Cupp reported, Trump’s promises to tame inflation and lower consumer costs have not materialized. Instead, inflation has ticked upward, unemployment has risen, and small businesses report higher operating costs driven by tariffs and regulatory volatility.
New data released in early January shows consumer confidence falling for the third consecutive month, with grocery prices and housing costs continuing to climb. Economists across the ideological spectrum warn that the administration’s tariff expansions, combined with aggressive spending and inconsistent policy signals, have created uncertainty that is rippling through markets.
The administration’s personnel challenges—already severe in December—have intensified. Cupp’s reporting highlighted allegations of misconduct and incompetence across multiple agencies, including the Departments of Defense, Homeland Security, and Health and Human Services.
In the weeks since, two senior officials have resigned amid investigations, and congressional committees have opened new inquiries into the administration’s handling of classified information and procurement contracts. A senior GOP aide described the atmosphere as “chaotic even by Trump‑era standards,” noting that the White House has struggled to fill key vacancies as potential nominees fear reputational damage.
Perhaps the most significant shift is occurring inside the Republican Party itself. Cupp noted that several GOP lawmakers had already begun distancing themselves from Trump, ignoring his directives on issues ranging from redistricting to the filibuster.
Since then, three additional House Republicans have announced retirements, and several influential conservative donors have signaled they will withhold funding until the administration stabilizes. While Trump retains strong support among the party’s most loyal voters, the institutional GOP appears increasingly willing to challenge him—something that was unthinkable during his first term.
Trump’s own behavior has amplified concerns. In December, he posted more than 160 messages on Truth Social in a five‑hour span—an episode Cupp described as “an unhinged mix of high and low,” revealing a leader struggling to control his message.
In recent weeks, similar late‑night posting sprees have continued, often contradicting official statements from his administration. Advisers privately concede that the president’s unpredictability is complicating efforts to reassure lawmakers, donors, and foreign partners.
Analysts caution that Trump has repeatedly rebounded from moments that seemed politically fatal. But they also note that the current convergence of economic strain, administrative dysfunction, party fractures, and personal volatility is unprecedented even for him.
“This is the first time the structural supports of Trumpism—economic optimism, party unity, and the aura of invincibility—are all weakening at once,” said one longtime Republican strategist.
Whether this moment marks the true beginning of the end for Trump’s political dominance remains uncertain. But for the first time in years, even some of his allies acknowledge that the president is navigating the most precarious stretch of his presidency—and that the forces aligned against him may be too numerous to outrun.
Hugo Balta is the executive editor of the Fulcrum and the publisher of the Latino News Network
U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a“ Steel Across America” event ahead of the 25th anniversary of the Sept. 11th attacks on the Ellipse near the White House on Sept. 8, 2026 in Washington, D.C. President Trump welcomed 9/ 11 first responders to the Tunnel to Towers Foundation’ s“ Steel Across America” event featuring a 16,900- pound, 21- foot steel beam recovered.
For Trump, even 9/11 is an opportunity
There was a reason organizers of the 9/11 ceremony in Manhattan told President Trump he could not speak at this year’s memorial service.
A good one, it turns out.
Because in a speech he gave on Tuesday in Washington, he did exactly what they were presumably worried about — he made it about himself.
According to The New York Times, Trump had wanted a speaking role at the service, but the National Sept. 11 Memorial and Museum, which oversees the site, said no, as they’ve maintained for the past decade-plus that the venue and event should be nonpartisan.
Trump has long used awful tragedies to either puff himself up, trash political opponents, or sell lies to the American people.
He blamed a deadly plane crash at Washington National Airport last year on diversity, equity and inclusion policies. He blamed Puerto Ricans for the devastation they endured after Hurricane Maria in 2017. He reportedly considered withholding disaster relief after the California wildfires based on the way affected regions voted. In an interview on Fox News meant to commemorate the 75th anniversary of D-Day in Normandy, he used the occasion to slam former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi…with graves of the dead behind him.
And now, as we approach the 25th anniversary of what many New Yorkers consider the darkest day in modern history, Trump has done it again.
He told a rambling, nonsensical story — one he’s told before — about going to Ground Zero just after terrorists flew two commercial jets into the twin towers. In the story, which no one has been able to verify, despite multiple attempts, he says firefighters had to carry him out of One Liberty Plaza, also known as the U.S. Steel Building, because they thought it was about to collapse.
As CNN fact checker Daniel Dale notes, there’s no evidence Trump went into this building, especially at a time when NYPD and NYFD had locked down the area. There’s no evidence that building was collapsing — in fact, it was deemed structurally sound and reopened within two months of the attacks. There’s no evidence he was carried out of it by firefighters.
But the lie isn’t even the worst part. Pretend it was all true — why would the leader of our country, and a New Yorker, decide to make that tragic day about himself?
Because that’s who Donald Trump is. He’s a malignant narcissist.
He’s also, incidentally, a terrible and ineffectual president, who’s made ill-fated decisions that he has to keep defending, and there’s nothing he won’t do to make himself look and feel better.
Within the first two minutes of his speech, he was cravenly using 9/11 to justify and promote his dumb war in Iran — two events separated by 25 years and 6,000 miles.
“And I will tell you, we’re right now fighting because we have a certain nation that wanted a nuclear weapon, they were very close to getting it, and now they have no chance at getting it. They will never have a nuclear weapon. Iran will not have a nuclear weapon. And they’ve been punished greatly. As you know, we’ve really taken it to them.”
As a New Yorker who lived through 9/11, still one of the worst days of my life, I’m utterly sickened by Trump’s crass, political, and self-promotional framing of that awful day.
And I’m relieved he won’t be given a platform to do it again on Friday’s anniversary in lower Manhattan.
Because for Trump, everything is his for the taking, and absolutely nothing is sacred.
S.E. Cupp is the host of "S.E. Cupp Unfiltered" on CNN.