For nearly a decade, political observers have warned against prematurely predicting the downfall of President Donald Trump. His ability to survive scandals, legal peril, internal party revolts, and public backlash has repeatedly defied political gravity. But a growing chorus of analysts now argues that the forces converging around Trump in early 2026 represent something fundamentally different—an erosion of power that appears broader, deeper, and more structurally damaging than anything he has faced before.
A December analysis by columnist S.E. Cupp, published by The Fulcrum, captured the shift in tone, noting that Trump’s approval rating had plunged to –24 percent, a historic low surpassed only by Richard Nixon at a comparable point in his second term. Cupp wrote that Trump’s support had eroded not only among independents and younger voters but even within his once‑unyielding base.
Since This really may be the political end for Trump was published, new polling has reinforced the trend. A January composite of national surveys shows Trump’s approval continuing to slide, with notable declines among suburban voters and Hispanic men—two groups that helped fuel his 2024 reelection. While Trump has weathered poor polling before, strategists note that this downturn is occurring alongside a series of compounding crises that have left the administration struggling to regain control of its narrative.
The president’s economic agenda—once the centerpiece of his political identity—has become a growing liability. As Cupp reported, Trump’s promises to tame inflation and lower consumer costs have not materialized. Instead, inflation has ticked upward, unemployment has risen, and small businesses report higher operating costs driven by tariffs and regulatory volatility.
New data released in early January shows consumer confidence falling for the third consecutive month, with grocery prices and housing costs continuing to climb. Economists across the ideological spectrum warn that the administration’s tariff expansions, combined with aggressive spending and inconsistent policy signals, have created uncertainty that is rippling through markets.
The administration’s personnel challenges—already severe in December—have intensified. Cupp’s reporting highlighted allegations of misconduct and incompetence across multiple agencies, including the Departments of Defense, Homeland Security, and Health and Human Services.
In the weeks since, two senior officials have resigned amid investigations, and congressional committees have opened new inquiries into the administration’s handling of classified information and procurement contracts. A senior GOP aide described the atmosphere as “chaotic even by Trump‑era standards,” noting that the White House has struggled to fill key vacancies as potential nominees fear reputational damage.
Perhaps the most significant shift is occurring inside the Republican Party itself. Cupp noted that several GOP lawmakers had already begun distancing themselves from Trump, ignoring his directives on issues ranging from redistricting to the filibuster.
Since then, three additional House Republicans have announced retirements, and several influential conservative donors have signaled they will withhold funding until the administration stabilizes. While Trump retains strong support among the party’s most loyal voters, the institutional GOP appears increasingly willing to challenge him—something that was unthinkable during his first term.
Trump’s own behavior has amplified concerns. In December, he posted more than 160 messages on Truth Social in a five‑hour span—an episode Cupp described as “an unhinged mix of high and low,” revealing a leader struggling to control his message.
In recent weeks, similar late‑night posting sprees have continued, often contradicting official statements from his administration. Advisers privately concede that the president’s unpredictability is complicating efforts to reassure lawmakers, donors, and foreign partners.
Analysts caution that Trump has repeatedly rebounded from moments that seemed politically fatal. But they also note that the current convergence of economic strain, administrative dysfunction, party fractures, and personal volatility is unprecedented even for him.
“This is the first time the structural supports of Trumpism—economic optimism, party unity, and the aura of invincibility—are all weakening at once,” said one longtime Republican strategist.
Whether this moment marks the true beginning of the end for Trump’s political dominance remains uncertain. But for the first time in years, even some of his allies acknowledge that the president is navigating the most precarious stretch of his presidency—and that the forces aligned against him may be too numerous to outrun.
Hugo Balta is the executive editor of the Fulcrum and the publisher of the Latino News Network
Americans across the political spectrum have continued to ask about the late financier and convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein’s connections among the political elite. (Angela Weiss/AFP)
Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Graham Platner speaks to voters at a town hall at the Elks Lodge 188 on June 7, 2026, in Portland, Maine.
McConnell and Platner both feel entitled
The two men could not be more different. One, a Republican, octogenarian, seven-term Southern senator, the other a progressive, millennial Maine oysterman who’s never spent a day in elected office.
But Mitch McConnell, the senior senator from Kentucky who’s been MIA for the past few weeks and Graham Platner, the Maine Senate candidate who’s facing calls to drop out of his race against Sen. Susan Collins, apparently do have something in common: an outsized sense of entitlement.
McConnell, who is 84 and not running for reelection, has been hospitalized for three weeks, and yet we still don’t fully know what he was admitted for or what his condition is. Per CNN, “his office has not disclosed a medical reason for the hospitalization or provided specifics on his health status beyond saying last week that he ‘continues to improve’ and ‘is working closely with his staff on Kentucky and Senate matters.’ ”
While several legislators have said they’ve talked to him and insist he sounds strong, others have said they are completely in the dark. One MAGA influencer, Laura Loomer, posted ”High level source close to the White House tells me ‘Mitch McConnell is officially brain dead. He’s not coming back.’ ”
Meanwhile, up in Maine, Platner has been artfully dodging calls from his own party to drop out of his race after several allegations of misconduct from women, including a sexual assault allegation from a former girlfriend, came to light. While Platner, who has managed to survive a Nazi-tattoo scandal, a sexting scandal, and several old tweets scandals, denies the allegations, he has not quit.
High-profile Democrats including Sens. Bernie Sanders and Chuck Schumer, the latter of whom had unsuccessfully hand-selected Maine Gov. Janet Mills to face Collins instead of Platner, have urged Platner to drop out, while other Dems have accused him of trying to influence the picking of his replacement.
Maine Democratic Party Executive Director Devon Murphy-Anderson released a statement Tuesday, which said in part:
“Unfortunately, Graham Platner’s team has repeatedly reached out to us in an attempt to put their thumb on the scale of what this process looks like. We have repeatedly reiterated to Graham Platner’s team that they have no role in determining our next Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate nor in determining what this process looks like.”
Both incidents show a deep lack of accountability to voters, who in one case deserve to know whether their senator is capable of performing his duties, and in another deserve a candidate who isn’t being accused of crimes, bigotry and deception.
The offensive and odious entitlement of both McConnell and Platner stands out not because it is particularly unique among today’s political class. Tom Kean, the New Jersey GOP congressman, missed more than 100 votes, only sharing after a three-month mystery absence that he was dealing with depression.
Former President Joe Biden’s Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin failed to disclose a hospitalization for prostate cancer surgery, flouting the established rules for Cabinet members and senior U.S. officials.
From Biden’s insistence on running for reelection despite his obvious cognitive and political weaknesses to Trump’s brazen flouting of laws and norms, few politicians seem to appreciate that their public service job comes with responsibilities to constituents, including transparency and honesty.
But both parties increasingly justify the chicanery, because the stakes of winning elections and keeping power are simply too high. But that’s no excuse. If we’ve learned anything over the past decade, it’s that character and accountability do, in fact, matter. And when we, the voters, stop caring about it, well, so do they.
S.E. Cupp is the host of "S.E. Cupp Unfiltered" on CNN.