The current continuing resolution, which keeps the government funded, ends this Friday, January 30.

It passed in November and ended the last shutdown. In addition to passage of the continuing resolution, some regular appropriations were also passed at the same time. It included funding for the remainder of the fiscal year for the food assistance program SNAP, the Department of Agriculture, the FDA, military construction, Veterans Affairs, and Congress itself (that is, through Sept. 30, 2026).

As of Friday, January 23, the House had passed the remaining appropriations for fiscal year 2026. It appeared that the Senate would then pass those bills this week and government operations would go uninterrupted.

Then, this past weekend, Department of Homeland Security agents killed yet another legal observer of their activities in Minneapolis. Alex Pretti's death brings the number of DHS shootings since September to 12. Four of those shootings have been fatal.

Pretti's death seems to have been the last straw for Senate Democrats. Since Saturday, enough of them have said that they will not vote for more funding for the Department of Homeland Security as currently proposed that, unless Republicans find a way to compromise, the government will again be shut down, albeit only partially this time.

At the moment, Senate Republicans say they are unwilling to make any changes to the existing appropriations bills.

Even if Republicans do compromise in some way, perhaps by rearranging the existing legislation to separate DHS funding from all the other agencies, there would still be a short partial shut down at the very least because the House will not return to session before January 30.

So, assuming for now that a shutdown occurs, what would that mean? Well, first of all, this time, no food support would be endangered and the VA would keep running because those agencies were among the ones whose full year appropriations were passed last November.

It might mean interruption in agencies like the Department of State, Transportation, Health and Human Services, Housing and Labor. It might mean some interruptions in the Department of Defense, but like last time, the administration would be looking for ways to shuffle existing funds to continue paying military personnel.

It almost certainly will have little or no effect on the operations of DHS even though that's the agency at the center of the dispute. Why not? Because, like last the last time around, the White House will likely designate DHS as essential and look for workaround funding without regard to the legality of that funding.

The Senate is, officially, in session from the end of the day today through the week. However, due to the big winter storm this past weekend, no votes are scheduled until tomorrow at least. There are 20 committee meetings this week, including one on Wednesday where Secretary of State Marco Rubio is expected to testify about Venezuela.

It is unclear right now where things will go right now. Our colleagues at The First Branch Forecast explain the political considerations that Democrats are mulling right now. They also provide a fascinating summary of why the Government Publishing Office was established: in short, private enterprise isn't always better or cheaper than public agencies.

See you all on Friday.

Probably Another Shutdown was originally published on GovTrack.us and is republished with permission.