• Home
  • Independent Voter News
  • Quizzes
  • Election Dissection
  • Sections
  • Events
  • Directory
  • About Us
  • Glossary
  • Opinion
  • Campaign Finance
  • Redistricting
  • Civic Ed
  • Voting
  • Fact Check
  • News
  • Analysis
  • Subscriptions
  • Log in
Leveraging Our Differences
  • news & opinion
    • Big Picture
      • Civic Ed
      • Ethics
      • Leadership
      • Leveraging big ideas
      • Media
    • Business & Democracy
      • Corporate Responsibility
      • Impact Investment
      • Innovation & Incubation
      • Small Businesses
      • Stakeholder Capitalism
    • Elections
      • Campaign Finance
      • Independent Voter News
      • Redistricting
      • Voting
    • Government
      • Balance of Power
      • Budgeting
      • Congress
      • Judicial
      • Local
      • State
      • White House
    • Justice
      • Accountability
      • Anti-corruption
      • Budget equity
    • Columns
      • Beyond Right and Left
      • Civic Soul
      • Congress at a Crossroads
      • Cross-Partisan Visions
      • Democracy Pie
      • Our Freedom
  • Pop Culture
      • American Heroes
      • Ask Joe
      • Celebrity News
      • Comedy
      • Dance, Theatre & Film
      • Diversity, Inclusion & Belonging
      • Faithful & Mindful Living
      • Music, Poetry & Arts
      • Sports
      • Technology
      • Your Take
      • American Heroes
      • Ask Joe
      • Celebrity News
      • Comedy
      • Dance, Theatre & Film
      • Diversity, Inclusion & Belonging
      • Faithful & Mindful Living
      • Music, Poetry & Arts
      • Sports
      • Technology
      • Your Take
  • events
  • About
      • Mission
      • Advisory Board
      • Staff
      • Contact Us
Sign Up
  1. Home>
  2. Voting>
  3. independent voting>

Share of independent voters is forecast to increase steadily

Sara Swann
https://twitter.com/saramswann?lang=en
November 30, 2020
North Carolina voters

North Carolina is estimated to have the biggest increase in independent voters by 2035, with a bump of 14 percentage points.

Melissa Sue Gerrits/Getty Images

While American politics comes off like a death match between Democrats and Republicans, off camera more and more voters are choosing not to affiliate with either party — and those numbers look destined to grow.

The share of independent voters has trended upward in the past two decades, and this fall accounted for 36 percent of the electorate, according to Gallup. A report released Monday projects this unaffiliated population will continue growing over the next 15 years.

With the electorate continuing to move away from past loyalties to the red and blue teams, many democracy reform groups see the time as ripe to make the political system adapt to better represent and accommodate independents. The report was prepared by the Open Primaries Education Fund, which is aligned with one such group that advocates for policies weakening the red and blue duopoly.


In 30 states, citizens may choose whether or not to affiliate with a political party when registering to vote. Nineteen states do not register voters by party, and North Dakota doesn't require registration at all.

The Open Primaries report projected that, in the states with partisan voter registration, nearly three-quarters are expected to see an increase in independent registrations by 2035. Four of this year's biggest presidential battlegrounds are forecast to see growth in unaffiliated voters.

Sign up for The Fulcrum newsletter

Of the states carried by President-elect Joe Biden, North Carolina is estimated to have the biggest increase, at 14 percentage points, followed by Arizona (10 points) and Pennsylvania (2 points). The growth is expected to be 8 points in Florida, where President Trump this fall continued a string of narrow wins in statewide races for Republicans.

Just four states are on course to see their shares of independent voters decline: Utah (34 points) and Idaho (24 points) among places now dominated by the GOP; New Jersey (18 points), Rhode Island (5 points) and Connecticut (4 points) among the Democratic states; and purple-these-days Maine (3 points).

As the share of independent voters increases, the number of Americans registered with the Democratic or Republican party is expected to dwindle. Thirteen states are expected to see a registration decline or stagnation for both major parties, and another 13 will see a drop in just one party's registration.

States where unaffiliated voters outnumber registered Republicans and DemocratsSource: Open Primaries Education Fund

Independents currently make up the plurality voting bloc in nine states with partisan registration, and the report predicts that will become the No. 1 registration choice in four new states during the next 15 years.

The report concludes that in order to keep up with these voter affiliation shifts, more states need to eliminate the party registration requirement and adopt open nonpartisan primaries in which all voters can participate.

Alaska voted this fall to join California and Oregon as states with singular primaries for Congress and all state offices — open to all registered voters, and with candidates of all stripes listed on the same ballot. The ballot measure Alaskans approved will advance the top four finishers to the general election. A solid majority of 57 percent of Floridians voted for top-two open primaries for state positions, but a supermajority of 60 percent was required.

"The United States is going through a political realignment," the report concluded. "Unlike past realignments, which involved the emergence, repositioning, and/or obsolescence of entire political parties, the accelerating national trend of the last 30 years is voter disaffiliation from the Democratic and Republican Parties."

From Your Site Articles
  • Covid made partisanship even worse, independent voters say - The ... ›
  • Independent voters deserve a voice in primary elections - The Fulcrum ›
  • Independent voters vital to Biden's win - The Fulcrum ›
  • Podcast: Hope for all voters - The Fulcrum ›
  • What Andrew Yang's new party means for American politics - The Fulcrum ›
  • Ross Perot's run offers lessons to both political parties - The Fulcrum ›
Related Articles Around the Web
  • Sick Of Political Parties, Unaffiliated Voters Are Changing Politics ... ›
  • Political Independents: Who They Are, What They Think | Pew ... ›
  • Five myths about independent voters - The Washington Post ›
independent voting

Want to write
for The Fulcrum?

If you have something to say about ways to protect or repair our American democracy, we want to hear from you.

Submit
Get some Leverage Sign up for The Fulcrum Newsletter
Follow
Contributors

How a college freshman led the effort to honor titans of democracy reform

Jeremy Garson

Our poisonous age of absolutism

Jay Paterno

Re-imagining Title IX: An opportunity to flex our civic muscles

Lisa Kay Solomon

'Independent state legislature theory' is unconstitutional

Daniel O. Jamison

How afraid are we?

Debilyn Molineaux

Politicians certifying election results is risky and unnecessary

Kevin Johnson
latest News

How the anti-abortion movement shaped campaign finance law and paved the way for Trump

Amanda Becker, The 19th
11h

Podcast: Journalist and political junkie Ken Rudin

Our Staff
12h

A study in contrasts: Low-turnout runoffs vs. Alaska’s top-four, all-mail primary

David Meyers
23 June

Video: Team Democracy Urges Citizens to Sign SAFE Pledge

Our Staff
23 June

Podcast: Past, present, future

Our Staff
23 June

Video: America's vulnerable elections

Our Staff
22 June
Videos

Video: Memorial Day 2022

Our Staff

Video: Helping loved ones divided by politics

Our Staff

Video: What happened in Virginia?

Our Staff

Video: Infrastructure past, present, and future

Our Staff

Video: Beyond the headlines SCOTUS 2021 - 2022

Our Staff

Video: Should we even have a debt limit

Our Staff
Podcasts

Podcast: Did economists move the Democrats to the right?

Our Staff
02 May

Podcast: The future of depolarization

Our Staff
11 February

Podcast: Sore losers are bad for democracy

Our Staff
20 January

Deconstructed Podcast from IVN

Our Staff
08 November 2021
Recommended
Bridge Alliance intern Sachi Bajaj speaks at the June 12 Civvy Awards.

How a college freshman led the effort to honor titans of democracy reform

Leadership
abortion law historian Mary Ziegler

How the anti-abortion movement shaped campaign finance law and paved the way for Trump

Campaign Finance
Podcast: Journalist and political junkie Ken Rudin

Podcast: Journalist and political junkie Ken Rudin

Media
Abortion rights and anti-abortion protestors at the Supreme Court

Our poisonous age of absolutism

Big Picture
Virginia primary voter

A study in contrasts: Low-turnout runoffs vs. Alaska’s top-four, all-mail primary

Video: Team Democracy Urges Citizens to Sign SAFE Pledge

Video: Team Democracy Urges Citizens to Sign SAFE Pledge

Voting