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A hidden financial crisis is emerging as private credit funds like BlackRock’s HLEND and Blackstone’s BCRED freeze withdrawals. Discover how geopolitical shocks, illiquid assets, and retail investor panic are exposing deep risks in the shadow banking system.

Getty Images, Yuichiro Chino

How the Iran Conflict Triggered a Private Credit Liquidity Crisis

While the world watches the harrowing escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and the volatility in the energy markets, a secondary, equally dangerous crisis is unfolding silently within the global financial architecture. The immediate shocks of any geopolitical crisis - soaring oil prices and fractured supply lines - are predictable, even expected. But what is currently occurring in the "shadow banking" sector is a classic "black swan" event, the true impact of which has yet to be fully grasped.

The news this week that investment behemoths have announced withdrawal freezes for some of their flagship private-credit funds (namely BlackRock’s $26 billion HLEND and Blackstone’s BCRED, which both activated redemption gates on March 7) is not a minor financial technicality. It is the definitive popping of a massive asset-class bubble and the end of the reckless era of "democratizing private equity."

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How Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz Affect Your Wallet

Gasoline prices have increased since the United States and Israel began their attacks against Iran on February 28, 2026.

In the image below, you can see how the national weekly average rose from $2.29 per gallon during the week of February 23, 2026, to $3.50 per gallon during the week of March 9, 2026.

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Trump’s claims versus reality on the economy and tariffs
a close up of a one dollar bill
Photo by Adam Nir on Unsplash

Trump’s claims versus reality on the economy and tariffs

Even as the Trump administration scrambles to wage war against Iran, it also must figure out a new tariff regime that can survive Supreme Court scrutiny. As usual with President Donald Trump, it’s necessary to weed out his hype and braggadocio from reality.

In late February, six Supreme Court justices -- three conservative and three liberal-- struck down President Trump’s use of an international emergency powers statute to impose broad tariffs on imports from across the world. That was not much of a surprise, since that statute doesn’t even mention the word “tariff” and legal experts had been predicting this outcome for many months.

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A gavel.

Analysis of President Donald Trump’s tariffs after a record $901.5B U.S. trade deficit in 2025. Explore the economic realities behind trade imbalances, the United States Supreme Court ruling on tariff authority, and the growing debate over executive power and trade policy.

Getty Images, Phanphen Kaewwannarat

What’s Next After the Court’s Tariffs Decision?

A Stubborn Imbalance

After a year of President Trump’s sweeping tariffs, sold as a reset of global trade, the promise was simple: the U.S. trade deficit would shrink. It did not. The Commerce Department instead reported a $70.3 billion deficit in December and a staggering $901.5 billion for all of 2025, one of the largest totals on record. The gap between imports and exports barely narrowed at all.

These figures matter because they undermine the central premise of the strategy: make imports more expensive, reduce foreign purchases, and bring production back to the United States. But that approach overlooks a key reality. Trade balances are not driven by tariffs alone. They reflect deeper forces such as consumer demand, domestic savings rates, the strength of the dollar, and global capital flows. Those forces do not yield easily to executive action.

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