There’s an old saying about what happens when the unstoppable force meets an immovable object, a situation where two equally powerful and contradictory forces are in opposition to each other.
Such a situation is rapidly unfolding between two powerful forces within the Republican Party on the all-important issue of immigration. This issue played no small part in Donald Trump's election to a second term as President.
Throughout his campaign, Trump promised to sign deportation orders on day one of being back in the White House, and all indications are that Trump has no intention of backing off if recent comments by “border czar” Tom Homan are any indication of what lies ahead.
“What price do you put on national security? I don’t think it has a price tag,” Homan said. “What price do you put on the thousands of American moms and dads who buried their children? You want to talk about family separation; they buried their children because their children were murdered by illegal aliens that weren’t supposed to be here. I don’t put a price on that. I don’t put a price on national security. I don’t put a price on American lives.”
Homan further defended the mass deportations’ $86 billion price tag, saying it would save American taxpayers money in the future and went on to say:
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“As far as U.S. children, that’s going to be a difficult situation because we’re not going to change your U.S. citizenship,” he said. “Which means they’re going to be put in a halfway house or they can stay at home and wait for the officers to get the travel arrangements and come back and get the family. You know the best thing to do for a family is to self-deport themselves.”
Yet this seemingly immovable position of MAGA deportation enthusiasts who want “mass deportation” is already being met by the immovable object of Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, the high-tech billionaires who will be leading Trump's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).
Shortly before Christmas, a battle erupted between Trump supporters over the comments Ramaswamy and Musk made in which they made it clear that immigration policy must have exceptions for highly skilled workers. This position is counter to the position of many MAGA supporters who are against this because they believe these workers, whether skilled or not, will take jobs away from American workers.
The internal battle has already begun as fellow Trump supporters accused the Tech billionaire of censorship on December 27th after several prominent conservatives who had criticized Musk’s views on immigration lost access to premium features on Musk’s social media app, X.
What is developing is an intriguing and complex confluence of two diametrically opposed forces, one economic and one cultural. Many Trump followers support him primarily for economic reasons, while others care more about the cultural issues that Trump has campaigned on. This unusual alliance, one economic and one cultural, will likely result in some contentious infighting and unpredictable outcomes.
The forces represented by Musk and Ramaswamy are driven by a focus on the advancement of technology, which is dependent on a greater reliance on globalization and the immigration of highly skilled workers. This is totally counter to the cultural beliefs of many MAGA enthusiasts.
For the cultural wing of the MAGA faithful, it is the deeply rooted religious values, traditions, and opposition to what they call “Woke” culture that draws them to support Trump. These cultural supporters are focused on resistance to progressive social issues related to LGBTQ, diversity, equity, and inclusion. They believe that only by preserving these “traditional” values will America be made great again.
Yet an analysis of the economic factors clearly shows why these two opposing forces must be resolved. The simple fact is that the United States is already relying heavily on foreign workers for high-tech jobs and must do so in greater numbers to sustain our technological lead in the global economy. According to a report by the National Science Board, 26% of workers in STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics) occupations are foreign-born. This includes roles such as software developers, engineers, and scientists.
Add to this fact that the United States workforce is aging at an alarming rate, and it becomes even more clear how the labor shortage that is unfolding in America is diametrically opposed to the deportation policies based on cultural issues. The number of older workers (ages 55 and older) has been steadily increasing for years, and this group is projected to make up nearly one-quarter of the labor force by 2026, according to the Senate Special Committee on Aging.
So fasten your seatbelts as the debate unfolds among MAGA supporters. Will the economic reality of the crucial role immigrants play in the U.S. economy by filling essential jobs, driving innovation, and contributing to economic growth trump cultural concerns?
Key industries, such as agriculture, healthcare, and technology, rely heavily on immigrant workers. Without them, these sectors could face severe labor shortages. Additionally, immigrants contribute to economic growth by starting businesses that create jobs. The economic realities are clear, given the demographic challenges of an aging population and declining birth rates and the role immigrants play in maintaining a robust and dynamic workforce.
Which of these seemingly unstoppable forces wins?
David Nevins is co-publisher of The Fulcrum and co-founder and board chairman of the Bridge Alliance Education Fund.
