Changing Iran: With Help from Political Geographers on the Ground

INTRODUCTION

This article suggests a different path out of the present excursionist war. This would be a diplomatic effort with ample incentives to MAGA-Israel and the Conservative Shia Theocratic Khamenei Regime (CSTKR) to stop the war. In exchange for the U.S. and Israel stopping the bombing in Iran, this effort would allow the CSTKR to survive and thrive. They could keep and promote their belief that the return of the Muhammad al-Mahdi, the 12th Imam, who disappeared in 874 CE, is key to bringing on the end times to establish peace and justice on earth. While most people would endorse the attainment of peace and justice on earth, they would strongly object to its connection to try to actualize it through violent struggle.

This effort would assist Iran to thrive via the removal of sanctions, substantial technical and economic assistance, help in developing its civilian nuclear program, and letting them keep and maintain a mine-cleared Strait of Hormuz and charge tolls, similar to what Egypt levies for the Suez Canal. Charging tolls provides a strong incentive to keep that waterway open, maintained, and safe. It becomes an additional opportunity cost to keep it closed. The CSTKR and its proxy militias, in turn, must stop their bombing and terror campaigns and, in addition, the CSTKR must let the Strait of Hormuz be quickly opened, give up materials that can be used to build nuclear weapons, and accept the political reconfiguration of Iran as outlined here.

POLITICAL CONFIGURATION OF IRAN

Iran's thirty-one provinces were grouped into five Administrative Regions (ARs) in 2014. These ARs were based on the adjacency, geographical location, and similarities of the provinces. The capitals of these five ARs are: Tehran, Isfahan, Tabriz, Kermanshah, and Mashhad.

It is suggested that Iran be reconfigured into three to five Confederated Administrative Regions based on political-religious ideologies. For example, three political-religious ideologies are suggested here as relevant: Conservative Theocratic Shia Islam, Liberal Democratic Islam, and Liberal Pluralistic Democratic Secularists. The top-level government could be called the United Regions of Iran (URI) and would be a non-coercive, weak central authority administered by representatives from the Regions.

It does not seek the defeat of the Conservative Theocratic Shia Islam, nor does it promote the desirability of that outcome. The URI is to be based on the principles of conflict resolution in a way that stops cycles of vengeance and promotes freedom of the practice of religion and the value of containment. The Shia Muslim forces underlying the present Islamic Republic of Iran can and should survive as an AR. The regime, nor its followers, should not be punished, and economic and environmental remedial help, like a Marshall Plan, should be provided to all the ARs.

Based on negotiations with the leaders of the ARs, each AR and the central URI will have to adhere to a form of demilitarization, and its AR constitution has to include a form of a UN Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UNHR) in addition to adherence to a law similar to Singapore’s Maintenance of Religious Harmony Act, which defines the following as punishable offenses:

“Urging force or violence on the basis of religion, or against a religious group or its members; inciting feelings of enmity, hatred, ill-will or hostility against a religious group; and insulting the religion or wounding the religious feelings of another person.”

The problem with present Iran is that one minority autocratic and militaristic faction exerts control over the political, religious, and cultural aspects of the entire country. In the process, its economic, environmental, and human rights dimensions, and inter-country stability are in substantial decline.

The URI proposal here gives the CSTKR an AR of its own to be based on, not just survival of it, but a substantial improvement in the quality of life as they define it, subject to a few human rights and demilitarization restrictions. Of course, the choice of which AR to live in has to be voluntary and not imposed by force. The population votes with their ballots but also with their feet.

FREEDOM TO CHOOSE

The people in Iran could freely choose to be a citizen in any AR. That home AR is where they would vote for its laws and representatives. For the CSTKR-AR, its citizens may just choose perpetual government by a Supreme Religious Shia leader, but whose governance would be restricted by demilitarization and human rights regulations. People in Iran would be free to live in any AR, and they would have to abide by the laws and rules in that AR, but they can only vote in the AR they chose to be a citizen in.

For example, a woman with strong modesty preferences may prefer to wear a burqa and choose to be a citizen of the CSTKR-AR, but based on family or business connections, wants to live in an AR that happens to be a Liberal Pluralistic Democratic Secular. She could do that and could culturally (but not legally) impose her values on herself and try, as a member of her mosque, to impose that dress code on attendees of her mosque; but voting for laws and representatives, though, would only be applicable for the CSTKR-AR. Blocks of voters from one AR could not reaggregate in a different AR to politically take control of it.

Over time, as the political sentiments, population size, and demographics change, the political ideology, size, and borders of an AR could change, but could not be short-termed micro-reconfigured as Texas and California are doing in their current gerrymandering of congressional districts.

IRANIAN POLITICAL PREFERENCES

The Netherlands-based Group for Analyzing and Measuring Attitudes in Iran (GAMAAN) conducted a survey in June 2024 where it polled more than 77,000 respondents. Around 70% of Iranians oppose the continuation of the Islamic Republic. The dominant political orientation in society is regime change. Opposition to the Islamic Republic is higher among the youth, urban residents, and the highly educated. Support for the principles of the Islamic revolution and the Supreme Leader decreased from 18% in 2022 to 11% in 2024. The vast majority of Iranians, 89%, support democracy. Governance based on religious law and military rule faces widespread opposition, 66% and 71% respectively. From their analysis, it seems that 20 to 30% support the continuation of the Islamic Republic. The majority want a different political system, such as a secular republic, a constitutional monarchy, or a more decentralized democracy.

So, having three ARs, with one of them being of the CSTKR political-religious ideology, with about a third of the population, would seem a close first approximation to what would match preferences in a reconfigured Iran.

Professionals from the field of political geography can help Iran create the ARs. Political Geographers can be found at places like the UN, the American Association of Geographers - Political Geography Specialty group, and at the Journal: Political Geography.

CONCLUSION

The GAMAAN Report concludes, “No political or civil figure currently enjoys majority support in society. Each political cluster represents only a portion (between 5% to 35%) of the population, and no single opposition force is capable of representing the full diversity present within the country.”

Therefore, an Iran decentralized into three to five Confederated ARs, based on political-religious ideologies, would seem a good way to reconfigure the country for local and global peace.

This is now the first quarter of 2026. An updated political preference poll would need to be conducted to decide on the number of ARs and how many people and which citizens are in each one.

The political and geographical restructuring of Iran can significantly improve its well-being. I think the same could be said for the U.S., Israel, as well as several other countries in the world. But the first priority is to try to stop the bombing and killing in Iran, improve the life of civilians there, and generate a more peaceful Middle East and world.

Steven Balkin is a professor emeritus at Roosevelt University and a member of the Chicago Political Economy Group. His research focuses on violence prevention, international development, entrepreneurship and cultural preservation. Email: sbalkin@roosevelt.edu