Starting in the 1990’s, the idea of putting term limits on members of Congress became a recurring idea to reform the institution and improve democracy. The idea was born out of the theory that replacing the current crop of legislators with a new batch would produce a better Congress. More than 30 years later we now have quantitative and qualitative data showing the impact of term limits.
Twenty-one state legislatures have enacted some kind of term limit on legislators since 1990. Since then, dozens of academic studies have examined the impact on such factors as: complexity of legislation, influence of lobbyists and staff on legislative outcomes, and interactions with constituent. Here are some key findings.
Reduced legislative capacity. With less experienced lawmakers writing legislation the legislators produced weaker and fewer bills. Intuitively, this makes sense. If you have less experienced individuals in any workplace they require time to understand the nuances of the business. As a confidential consultant for members of the U.S. House and Senate I’ve seen this countless times. Even experienced members of the minority party can legislate circles around rookie lawmakers.
Power shifted to lobbyists. With the institutional memory erased, special interest backed (and written) legislation was more likely to pass. When legislators are forced out of their jobs due to term limits they often migrate to the lobbying community. But they still retain their institutional and issue knowledge they gained as lawmakers. To be fair, not all lobbyists fall into the grim stereotype portrayed in movies and TV. Most are subject-matter experts and lawmakers rely on them to convey how a proposed piece of legislation might affect a group of constituents or businesses. Yet, we can also see a world that would likely be better of legislatures were not compelled to rely on lobbyists since the in-house expertise was unable to run for re-election.
Power shifted to leadership and executive branch. With inexperienced lawmakers trying to quickly get up to speed on their job, academic studies have suggested that the power vacuum is filled by legislative leaders and the executive branch in states. Of course, to have functioning legislators you need functioning leaders. But this power shift almost always consolidates power away from the majority of state constituents. We’ve seen this power shift occur in the U.S. Congress, under Democratic and Republican leaders, since 1995. And seen it shift on a massive scale since the beginning of President Trump’s second term. There are very few scholars (and most members of Congress) who think a weakened legislative institution is healthy for our democracy.
Reduced constituent engagement. With no electoral incentive, especially in lawmakers’ final terms, there was less engagement with constituents. Legislators grew more distant from the voters. Term limited lawmakers also were more likely to skip committee meetings and miss floor votes. Putting oneself up for the voters’ assessment every two or four years is a remarkable human incentive our Founders created.
Also consider that general retirements and electoral outcomes often result in significant reductions in senior lawmakers. This effect was on display at the start of the 118th Congress, when Rep. Kevin McCarthy was forced to 15 ballots to gain the speakership. The 435 House members voting on McCarthy had not been sworn in (the Speaker’s vote comes first). And at the beginning of that Congress in 2023, 49 percent of House members had four years’ experience in the Congress or less. Can we really say with that infusion of new blood that 2023 was a banner year for the Congress?
One can also assess what we would lose when experienced lawmakers are forced out of office. Under term limits, all these lawmakers would have been required to leave before the pinnacle of their legislative effectiveness: Henry Clay, Lynden Johnson, Orin Hatch, John McCain, and Ted Kennedy. At the height of their careers these legislators crafted historic bills on health care, transportation, taxes, and defense policy.
There is of course a natural “stick it to the man”/“throw the rascals out” mentality that runs through public opinion. Yet when we explore how to reform our democratic institutions, we should be grounded in solid research rather than impulsive passions.
Bradford Fitch is the former CEO of the Congressional Management Foundation, a former congressional staffer, and author of “The Citizen’s Handbook for Influencing Elected Officials."
